Monday, July 11, 2016

Today is 7-11 ! A day for me that will always be known as Primary Five Day

Some people not familiar with Elliott Wave work will wonder what all the fuss is about. But those of us familiar with Elliott Wave will recall that a major Elliott Wave service had predicted that the years 2007 - 2009 were the start of the equivalent of Armageddon in the financial markets. And while those years were, indeed, very bad years for financial assets, this same Elliott Wave service had predicted that this deterioration would continue in the form of a "three-wave" primary b wave higher that would eventually lead the markets lower in a new five wave sequence lower of unparalleled destruction.

Today marks the day when, instead of the three-wave sequence upward, a five-wave sequence was made "instead". The chart below shows that five-wave sequence.

With Today's Higher High Primary V is Now Validated
This is of some consequence, because it is further validation of my paraphrase of the Bill Williams method of counting the Elliot Wave. This method has been detailed in the posts below entitled, "The Eight-Fold Path to Counting an Impulse Wave", and the chart above shows each one of those steps carried out without fuss and bother on the two-weekly chart of the S&P500. Why the two-weekly chart? Because the very first step is, "To chose the time-frame for which 120 - 160 candles fits 'the wave of interest'." If you are not familiar with this method, yet, you can read about it at this LINK.

There are several reasons why we think stock prices have carried this far:
  1. The Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy
  2. From 2009, a Fibonacci eight (8) years would be 2017
  3. That SuperCycle III is the longest and strongest movement in U.S. Equity prices
  4. That even if the public is not buying wildly, banks can buy stocks with parked funds
  5. And companies are re-purchasing their shares with low-interest debt.
Regardless of the reasons, the fundamentals are incorporated in the price changes so far, and the psychology of their application in the market is what makes the Elliott Wave above.

Friday, July 8, 2016

Take Your Pick : Impulse or Diagonal

This post puts some more 'meat on the bones' of the potential contracting Ending Diagonal Count for Primary V, now that the Brexit highs have been surpassed. It is one of only two possibilities for how Primary V can end. It can end in an impulse or it can end in a diagonal

Below is the chart of the contracting shape of Diagonal.

Potential Ending Contracting Diagonal for Primary V
For the diagonal to form instead of the impulse, then all the requirements must be met, including the fact that Intermediate (1) ‘must’ make a new all time high to show it’s ‘motive’ character. Then, all the other requirements of a diagonal must be met, as well:

The lengths must measure such that (5) is shorter than (3), and (3) is shorter than (1), and (4) is shorter than (2). Furthermore, wave (4) must overlap wave (1), and all the three-wave sequences 'must' be countable as zigzags - or multiple zigzags - only.

We'll see how it plays out. So far, the needed high of 2135 for Intermediate (1) has not occurred, but prices got to within 5 points of that level on Friday.