|S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Still in Minute ((c))|
Then, yesterday, Elliott Wave International posted this incredulous statement regarding the current wave count, (paraphrase), "our best wave count is that we are in (1), (2), 1, 2" - which readers will recognize means they think we have had Intermediate (1), and Intermediate (2), and Minor 1, and Minor 2. This current wave up would be Minor 2.
The reason this proposed count is incredulous is that Minor 2 would already be a larger wave in points than Intermediate (2) - which simply flies in the face of degree labeling! You can't call a wave a smaller degree if it is, in fact, larger than it's larger degree counterpart. And it is! They think (2) where is we show minute ((b)) at the beginning of December, 2018; and (1) is where we show ((a)) at the end of October in the daily chart, below.
To counteract whatever is going on over there, I thought I would show you my proposal for the beginning of this bear market.
|S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Contracting Diagonal Lead off to Bear Market|
The reason is thus: this up wave consumed more points that the prior minute ((b)) wave did by the end of November, 2018. Therefore, it simply must be a larger degree wave. There are only two ways this can happen, and both of them are diagonals. Right now, the market is so choppy, and the Federal Reserve has implemented its "patience" plan. So it seems we might only get a choppy diagonal for the first Intermediate wave of the bear market - shown as (1) in the lower right.
I have drawn in some preliminary trend lines. They are just that. They will be adjusted as we get more waves. Perhaps Minor 3 will occur if/when the Special Counsel's report is released, and/or if Congress takes any action on it.
Until we get more information, this is the best I can do. I was dismayed to read yesterday what the professionals at the wave service thought of the count. It makes it hard for all to learn.
Have a good start to your evening.