Monday, December 9, 2019

Inside Day Down

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.11 Trillion; prev $23.10
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Inside Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative
Daily Swing Line: Up
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

In the comments section of the previous post, we were only able to count three-waves-up in the NQ 100 futures. These futures made a new daily high. Neither the Dow cash, nor the S&P500 cash indexes nor the ES futures could muster the new high. The result is shown back in the daily chart, below with an inside day.

ES Futures - Daily - Inside Day

The three-waves-up, so far, show the c wave that is less than an a wave in length. But, in the NQ and the ES, the up wave is 90% of the length of the down wave, and therefore can qualify for the "b" wave of a flat wave.

One of those powerful third waves up could not even break the upper boundary of the parallel trend channel in the hourly ES futures. The NQ futures new high was on another divergence.



Readers should now be on alert for a potential critical overlap which may prevent further upward counting as an impulsive wave.

This should still be considered as part of the larger minute ((b)) wave down until or unless something occurs to prevent that count. The daily prior highs in September remain an excellent first target.

Have a good start to the evening, and to the week.
TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. Thank for the update.
    Futures will leave no doubt about the correct count...mind the gaps!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
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  2. Like clockwork? Will history repeat? https://www.tradingview.com/x/FzmajgIZ/

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  3. TJ, possible to count 3069 to 3150 as 5 waves? With iv as expanded flat. Same for NQ

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    Replies
    1. No, because the peak reading of the EWO is in the second wave set of a-b-c.

      Delete
    2. Thanks.

      A note on VIX. It appears to have just made 5 waves off the Dec 6 low and now pulling back. How that fits in larger time frame I'm not sure yet.

      Delete
    3. Yep! VIX clearly broke out from a a bullish falling wedge. Not sure if the brief beat down yesterday qualifies as a re-test of wedge upper boundary, but if not, it would be nice to see a back-test of the 12.50. The idiotic jaw-boning about tariffs just might do the trick...are folk this stupid???!!!

      Delete
    4. No clue if this is an accurate symbol for VIX on Tradingview but:

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQLzG2g9

      Delete
    5. Valid chart. I was looking on a smaller time frame but I think the monthly chart does a better job via a larger wedge pattern with not break-out as yet.
      There seems to be some growing consensus among Ellioticians that we are in a fourth wave with a fifth yet ahead which would correspond with a Sant rally. This would work out well with one more visit of VIX to recent lows...
      If it is a fourth (or B ) wave we hold above 3100 imho...

      Delete
  4. A few years ago after reading paoers from Chris Cole of Artemis and Francisco Filia of Fasanara on the subject of liquidity injection into financial markets and vol suppression by Central Banks, I tried to talk to every crdible EW analyst I know, including Prechter, Hochberg and others, about whether the method needed to consider the role of CBs in analysing wave development. Every last one of them was adamant. CBs played no role, ONLY herd sentiment. Based on the data I looking at, this notion struck me as flawed in the extreme. I was able to find a number of charts of the S&P overlaid with Q.E. announcements and asked that these guys take a look. Crickets!
    It looks now that analysts at Morgan Stanley are now admitting what any observant and competent trader has been aware if for some time. Some folk still reject the notion that the CBs can, and do influence market price. Thankfully, these folk are not managing our portfolios!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-central-banks-are-injecting-100-billion-month-crush-vol-and-spike-markets

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hourly futures had the critical overlap last night, and then rose following this news release on tariffs.

    Stock futures turn positive on report US and China are planning for a delay of December tariffs. (CNBC)

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  6. 4 may in on gold on the 30 minute

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Half way on current bar, 4hr Gold working on double close key reversal (down).

      Delete
  7. Most gloom and doom prognosticators are generally just blowing hot air and have no idea what they are talking about. Zoltan Poszar is in a league by himself among the quant gurus. Not sure how what he is saying might square with the EW count but his take is interesting. I have long thought that an intermediate C wave should take us below last December lows. I suppose the question of his thesis would be how soon Mr. Market strikes that downside target after a top is in...
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-about-get-very-bad-repo-market-legend-predicts-market-crash-days...
    I did think it quite curious how little reporting there has been on the brewing crisis in the re-po market. They are NOT re-paying that money. Just take a look at the FED balance sheet the last few weeks...

    ReplyDelete
  8. VIX trying mightily to break from a bull pennant but so far facing strong resistance at 17...looks like we either gap past or retreat below 15 next session if correctve move done...

    ReplyDelete
  9. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete
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