Watch for a Wedge

Keep an eye on this partial wedge count. If it finishes as a diagonal, it is possible it is still a minute ((c)) of Minor 2, up.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Partial Wedge

I know a lot of people see a triangle here, and the only problem with a triangle is that it doesn't overlap the wave to the 10th. So, the 18th would be (i) of ((c)), and today would be (iii) of ((c)).

It's not for certain.  But the FED decided to get aggressive about its jaw-boning and it curtailed the downside for the time being.

Have a good evening.
TraderJoe

One Way to Interpret Today

This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the five minute chart. It looks a little different than the S&P500, so I thought I'd show this one.

DJIA - Five Minutes - One Interpretation

The market really struggled towards the end of the session, but there is nothing conclusive to say the up wave, wave ii, is over. A 62% retrace, or slightly more would not be unreasonable. 

The downward diagonal has the correct measurements, and the required overlaps, and a very nearly correct time signature. And wave ii might be a Flat wave, itself, and has so far consumed more time than the downward wave.

Please keep in mind while other analysts were writing over the weekend about new highs, and "straight up from here". We at least saw some downward movement. We'll continue to take it step by step.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

The Current and Future Roadmap

It is relatively easy to get lost in the details. I have showed this before with more of the bothersome detail of actual prices (lol!). This one has a few dates on it for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Possible Roadmap

The path in the heavier blue arrows has been completed so far. That which may be upcoming is in the lighter black arrows.

It will be exceptionally unclear how deep the potential upcoming b wave can get. It could get down to the middle daily Bollinger Band (the 18-day SMA), or it could go to the lower daily Bollinger Band. We'll have to take it step-by-step.

And, while wave b, itself, may be a flat wave, all of wave 2 may not be a flat wave. That is, no part of wave 2 may travel below wave 1. Each of the larger Minor waves 1 - 5 must be a zigzag. If at any time that becomes not true, the count must be discontinued.

Then, wave Minor 3 should be shorter in time than wave Minor 1. (In this diagram, a = minute a, and is taken to mean the same thing as ((a)), or circle-a.).

Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe

P.S. In looking through some of the various technical indicators, I thought I would add one of my key sentiment charts to this post. It is below, and it is the daily put-call ratio chart.

Daily Put-Call Ratio Returns to Zone of Speculation

Notice how the most recent peak reading of 1.13 occurred in the "Zone of Despair" where people are most despondent about the prospects for stocks. And this reading occurred on December 21 - just a trading day before the recent market turn higher!

Now look at the Zone of Speculation. The three arrows in the lower center of the chart are the kick-off in bullish sentiment leading to the start of the bear market. The September valley preceded the October high. The November valleys preceded the drop throughout the month of December. Now look at the three most recent circles.

The Federal Reserve's announced move towards "Patience" dropped the put-call ratio to one of the lowest recorded readings in several years of charting this indicator. And, most recently, as the bulls yearn for a new all-time high, two more lows have been made in the Zone of Speculation - the later one of which is lower than the former.  A lot of calls are being bought according to this indicator, and it is flashing a big caution sign.

An Important Measurement

The Dow went over the high today. The S&P500 did not. However, the chart below shows a very important measurement for the cash S&P500 Index.

SP500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Reaches 90%

IF the prior high was the five waves of the minute ((a)) wave, up, counted out previously, then with three clear waves down to a:3 in this index, and three clear waves up to b:3 to just over the 90% level, then it is possible we are in the minute ((b)) wave down - but in the form of a Flat wave.

If so, it's possible the S&P500 will not go over the high, and will instead try a return trip to the low or beyond.

Just a thought for now, but an important measurement.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

FED Might Change the Game

Overnight the Wall Street Journal is reportedly saying that the FED might consider halting it's bond redemption program. You can read the story at this LINK.  So, the futures market has popped a bit on that report.

That means if we use the futures chart only, the wave count now depends on if we go back over the recent high or not. See the chart below.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 4 HR - Three Waves or Five?

Both wave i of (i), and wave (i), itself, are retraced by waves that are a 38.2% retrace or less. So according to Neely's guideline - if we are in an impulse - we should look for the first waves to be the extended waves in the sequence, and the overall wave to form a wedge.

Another telling point? The DOW did not make a new low at c of potential wave (iv) where the S&P500 did. And the S&P500 did not overlap it's wave (i), allowing the potential for a fourth non-overlapping wave.

So, if a new high is made, there would, indeed, become an impulse count, up. And, if not, the previously cited ((A)), ((B)), ((C)) count, shown in brown circle would hold.

The grinding nature of the up wave makes wave counting a most difficult exercise. Hang in there with patience, calm and flexibility.

Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe

Still nothing definite

Some of us were discussing a potential triangle today, as a way to lengthen the correction. There is a 'potential' running triangle as shown below. It would be a "running triangle" because its (b) wave is higher than its a wave. But, in the cash market, its (e) wave must cross down over its a wave to be corrective to it.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Possible Triangle

This might be a way for the entire upward correction to become 'longer in time' than the three downward waves. But first, the potential triangle must complete properly in every detail. The opposite of a triangle (alternate) is currently an expanded diagonal downward.

After the cash close the futures did give up considerable ground going into the settlement, so we'll see how it goes.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Threes

I wish I could be more clear at this time, but wave structure prevents it. This is all I see in the present moment.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15-Minutes - Two Sets of Threes

Of course the 'threes' could start a diagonal to the down side. If so, there would be a gap down tomorrow. But, we don't know for sure that the second three to the upside is finished yet. I have to keep it simple until we see which way the gaps go.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Two Good Options

Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new recovery high late in the session. The S&P500 cash did not, the Russell futures did not. The ES E-Mini S&P 500 futures did.

Pending a review of some additional wave label degree work, it is 'possible' that Minor 2 ended on Friday, as minute ((a)), minute ((b)) and minute ((c)) as in  the chart below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Three Waves Up to Minor 2

I am still studying this situation from a degree labeling perspective, but the question has to be asked, "why did the waves fail?". There is a remarkable Fibonacci relationship in this count : minute ((c)) = 38.2% x minute ((a)) to the pip. And clear Fibonacci relationships are common in corrective waves.

Price is now just shy of that daily declining trend line from the high. But certainly close enough, and diagonals like to adhere to their trend lines.

The very clear 50:50 alternate until there is further price development has to be that only the minute ((a)) wave completed at Friday's high, and we are now in the minute ((b)) wave down. We must take it step by step. If the ES futures find support at the 18-day SMA, then it is possible it would be a target for the minute ((b)) wave.

One precedence for the kind of count shown above might be the fact that both Prechter and Neely cite that there can be a wave such as a "failed zigzag". How can that happen if some of the internal waves of the ((a)) wave are not longer than the ((c)) wave - which fails? Interesting stuff.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. This morning's note is that there is a potential ending contracting diagonal to end the flat wave called from yesterday. The chart as it stands now, is below. The fourth wave of the diagonal has already been exceeded lower.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 30 Min - Potential Ending Contracting Diagonal

Please keep in mind that due to the overall uncertainty in the count that (1) down, and (2), up, at this time might be (A), down and (B) up.

Revision to Short Term

Thanks to two of the regular commenters on here, the short term chart has been revised for a particular reason. I couldn't find the specific reason why for several days, but now I have. First, here is the chart.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Revision

So, again, as per yesterday's comments, the time of the wave labeled as T (iii) is simply "too long in time" to be a sub-wave of a minute ((c)) wave up. That is because it is "longer in time" than what was formerly the minute ((a)) wave, up, and now shown as minuet (i). And that is not allowed. That means this whole wave up is more likely an impulse wave up as halting and awful as it was - and is.

In the above count, wave (iv) is also just slightly longer in time than wave (ii). And you know what that means too! It means that in the prior ((a)), ((b)), ((c)) count upward - yesterday's 30-minute chart, then, as second wave, a sub-wave,  it would also have been longer in time than it's larger degree ((b)) wave which is also not allowed. And, that problem gets worse if you try - in the old ((a)), ((b)), ((c)) count - to move (i) of ((c)) backward in time. Then, you violate the degree labeling between ((b)) and (ii) all the more. That is simply not allowed.

The time relationships above are: T(iii) > T(i), and T(iv) > T(ii). That is not a problem because these waves are of the same degree. And I don't see any time or price degree violations in wave (v), as long as wave blue ii is a FLAT wave. This chart also resolves the issue with the (iv) to ii trend line not cutting off any part of wave iii of (v).

Further, I want to assure you that wave (iii) is NOT being counted as a diagonal, just an impulse in which it's wave iv has a higher -b wave. We know it is not a diagonal because it's low was not exceeded lower.

So, the assumption is this wave is now the minute ((a)) wave of the diagonal wave 2.

Again, just as in the diagonal count, I do not like altering the count. But, when the potential diagonal invalidated, the count had to be changed. And when price or degree labels have been violated, then the count must similarly be changed. However, the count does make a particular prediction, and that is that since wave (iii) is shorter than wave (i), that wave (v) must be shorter than wave (iii). So I have shown wave (iii) at it's absolute maximum possible height for measuring purposes.

Thanks to the proponents of the impulse count for sticking to their guns. For those of you that have not seen one before, the wave (iv) triangle - in which price goes right into the apex - is what Neely calls a "non-limiting triangle". That means, on exit, price is NOT limited to the width of the triangle. Prechter also cites a triangle of this type in his book.

Have a fantastic rest of the Martin Luther King holiday and celebration of his life!
TJ

P.S. After the open on Tuesday, the market fell such that the widest width of the triangle (iv) was exceeded lower. As far as I can see, this calls for a change of wave degree, and minute ((b)) may be underway. Chart below.

S&P500 Cash Index - 30-Minute Chart - Width of wave (iv) Triangle Exceeded Lower

P.S. # 2 - Only posting this one because it is one of the finest examples of a leading contracting diagonal off of the top you will see,

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Half Hour - Leading Diagonal and Five Count

Current count is good until 2,615, or 5 becomes 3. Notice in the above chart, the time relationships in the waves. Wave ((v)) down, consumes less time than wave ((iii)), down. And wave ((iii)) down is shorter in time than wave ((i)). Further, wave ((iv)) is shorter in time than wave ((ii)). Of course, the same is true of the price relationships, but one should really cement in their mind this picture of a contracting diagonal as it really is 'ideal' in every manner.

Bigger Picture

If you weren't able to follow the comments yesterday, last night in the pre-market, the count of a diagonal wave was invalidated. That meant we were likely in a third wave. So, that provided this shorter term count. The third wave (iii) can still be in progress as there is no concrete overlap yet.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Still in Minute ((c))

Then, yesterday, Elliott Wave International posted this incredulous statement regarding the current wave count, (paraphrase), "our best wave count is that we are in (1), (2), 1, 2" - which readers will recognize means they think we have had Intermediate (1), and Intermediate (2), and Minor 1, and Minor 2. This current wave up would be Minor 2.

The reason this proposed count is incredulous is that Minor 2 would already be a larger wave in points than Intermediate (2) - which simply flies in the face of degree labeling! You can't call a wave a smaller degree if it is, in fact, larger than it's larger degree counterpart. And it is! They think (2) where is we show minute ((b)) at the beginning of December, 2018; and (1) is where we show ((a)) at the end of October in the daily chart, below.

To counteract whatever is going on over there, I thought I would show you my proposal for the beginning of this bear market.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Contracting Diagonal Lead off to Bear Market

The reason is thus: this up wave consumed more points that the prior minute ((b)) wave did by the end of November, 2018. Therefore, it simply must be a larger degree wave. There are only two ways this can happen, and both of them are diagonals. Right now, the market is so choppy, and the Federal Reserve has implemented its "patience" plan. So it seems we might only get a choppy diagonal for the first Intermediate wave of the bear market - shown as (1) in the lower right.

I have drawn in some preliminary trend lines. They are just that. They will be adjusted as we get more waves. Perhaps Minor 3 will occur if/when the Special Counsel's report is released, and/or if Congress takes any action on it.

Until we get more information, this is the best I can do. I was dismayed to read yesterday what the professionals at the wave service thought of the count. It makes it hard for all to learn.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Still the One - 2

We should know soon enough if this count of minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) is the correct one or not. Every wave occurred just about as we expected- with the few twists and turns along the way that are characteristic of potential diagonal waves.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 hr - Minute ((c)) = Minute ((a))

The orange box is drawn so ((c)) = ((a)), and it fits like a glove at the moment. If the count is correct then, there should be a gap lower in the morning, and the minute ((b)) wave should be exceeded lower in less time than it took to complete the overlapping diagonal ((c)) wave, up. The diagonal has all of the correct measurements, and this one has the nice "throw-over" of the top of the trend line.

The diagonal would invalidate if wave (v) became longer than wave (iii) above 2,655.75.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

P.S. The futures count was invalidated in the overnight. The only count I can find that still follows the rules for all those overlaps is this one.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Only Count that Follows the Rules for the Overlaps

So, the overlapping waves must have been a leading diagonal first wave, and we are now in a third wave.

Still The One

There were initial marginal higher highs in the stock indexes today, followed by a somewhat weaker close.  The S&P500 did have a second higher high in the day that was not confirmed by the Russell 2000 futures. The count below still remains the best one at this  time..

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 4 Hr Chart - Diagonal Still Possible for Minute ((c))

The potential diagonal remains solidly on the table. As of the ES settlement, by measurement, there were still five points of possible overlap with waves (iv) and (i) based on the length shown for a third wave. Again, a fourth wave (iv) should remain shorter in time than wave (ii) to maintain a diagonal. As always, a diagonal must form properly in every detail or an alternate would have to be selected. But, we will address that issue if it should come to it.

Today, price got very, very close to the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Brexit Defeat

Today the British Parliament voted down Ms. May's proposal for a Brexit, and this generated a call for a "No Confidence" vote in the government. Stocks here initially rose, then see-sawed on the news.

The best count for the S&P500 cash index remains this one on the four-hourly chart of the futures, below.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Four Hourly - Diagonal minute ((c))

It's 'possible' wave (iv) down began at the tail end of the session. It should take less total time than (ii) to maintain a diagonal. (This is not a rule but a guideline). The Elliott Wave Oscillator continues to diverge but the green histogram bars for today likely indicate the third wave.

In order to maintain this count, in no case may wave (iv) travel below the low of wave (ii). So far, this wave is just 'grinding and grinding' and there is no clear wave-counting topping signal such as an outside day down, or a bearish engulfing candle. One can also see the the trend line from the 26 Dec lows is also still being maintained. Price is still above the 18-day SMA, so, it has a positive bias, the upper Bollinger Band is not too far away, and the daily slow stochastic is now embedded.

With today's higher high and overlap of 2,603 for the S&P500, it likely means the diagonal count is activated - just as with the $NYA we showed on the previous post.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

Overlaps

Others have counted the chart below of the New York Composite Index differently. I thought it would be instructive to look at it today.

$NYA - Weekly - Fifth Wave Failure

Some have counted this wave as wave 1, down in February, 2018, and wave 2, up to the October, 2018 high. I believe that wave count to be in error based on where almost all of the other major stock indexes made their highs. As far as I can tell, the October, 2018 high was the fifth failure wave in the $NYA.  It is what Ralph Nelson Elliott would call the "Orthodox high of the move", versus the "Nominal High of the move".

More importantly, look now at where the $NYA has overlapped on the way down.

$NYA - Weekly - Overlap on Minute ((x))

Some think that minute ((x)) was actually the high of Minor 1. If that was the case and they are calling for a "fifth wave up, because this is the fourth wave down", the overlap suggests they are clearly in error. There are other reasons to rule this out - as I have stated before - based on degree labeling. But the above overlap is yet another reason.

OK, that is water under the bridge, but here is another overlap.

$NYA - Daily - Overlap at 2

The daily chart of the $NYA shows two interesting features. The first is that there is clear overlap at wave Minor 2. So, those now labeling this as a fourth wave in this index are likely incorrect. But, this chart also shows something else of note. Namely, there is no overlap in the minute ((a)) wave down, as there is in the S&P500 cash index. Instead, there is a rather clear wave (iv) triangle!

So, in the first instance, there is now a clear case for a diagonal downward. Such a diagonal could either be expanding or contracting! The market is doing its level best to keep the uncertainty in the wave count. 

But, in the second instance if the current three-waves up somehow expand into "five waves up", then the next best count (best alternate) will be Minor 1 down at the October minute ((a)) location, down, and then five waves up for a "running flat" for Minor 2. 

$NYA - Daily - Alternate Running Flat

While I have diagrammed the alternate, above, the reason it is the alternate is that the internals of the minute ((a)) are not really clear, in this case, and they already contain one upward failure. In addition, there is no clear evidence of five-waves-up to minute ((c)) of Minor 2. But there could be. It could be the upward waves just aren't finished yet.

So as always patience, calm and flexibility are needed until the market sorts things out. It should be clear that any downward overlap of 11.40 on this chart before making a fourth and fifth wave higher would help clearly rule out the alternate.

Have a good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe

Inside Day

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Day
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening Interim Patience (QTIP)

As the FED has sent all its messengers out to say how patient they can be, today resulted in an inside day - also requiring patience. The hourly chart of the S&P500 Cash Index is below.

SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Minute ((c)) Nears Equality

One can see from the Fibonacci ruler that a minute ((c)) wave is now nearing equality with minute ((a)). One can also see that the tail end is wedging prominently and price is below the mid-line of the channel. Since the cash index did not form an over-lapping diagonal for minute ((a)), then it would be acceptable for minute ((c)) to have formed a diagonal in its entirety.

Did the diagonal fail, or will it continue? That is a good question. There is a way to count such a diagonal for either case, unfortunately. The waves are so compressed, they do not provide a good answer. Monday and Tuesday should bring some better information.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Diagonal 80: Impulse 20

Stocks as measured by either the S&P500 cash index, or the futures made a marginal new high today. Still, the closer they get to 2,604, cash, then the closer they get to invalidation of the impulse down. For this reason, and one other that was covered in yesterday's comment, the odds of a diagonal are increasing and the odds of the pure impulse count are falling off considerably.

Price remained above the 18-day SMA, and therefore still has a bullish bias, although the slow stochastic is in over-bought territory. And, the swing-line (higher highs and higher lows) is still up. More-than-likely, the "smart money", is still targeting the daily upper Bollinger Band, as below.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Daily - Outside Day Up

Today was actually an "outside-day-up", and it was again riddled with speeches from the FED Chair and other members. Being an outside-day-up, it would be significant only if the low of today was taken out in the next two trading sessions. The above analysis is the first reason the diagonal is gaining odds.

The second reason, as discussed in yesterday's comments, is 'there is no sign of a clear topping candle on the daily chart.' There is not an evening star, or an inverted hammer, or a bearish engulfing candle. The upper daily Bollinger Band coincides with minute ((c)) = minute ((a)). So, this level is likely to provide some still resistance to upward price movement. Is the 100 period SMA (the green line) out of the question? Since it is inside of 1.618 x ((a)), it is not. As a result, patience and flexibility are still greatly needed as the trading algorithms and the news continue to present overlap upon overlap. This 'slowed pace' of both down and up price movement may be well in-tune with the personality of a diagonal wave.

Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

For Planning Purposes

There have already been some overlaps in the overnight futures. The chart below would be triggered particularly if there is overlap on 2,603 in the daily futures. (Note: it also works without the overlap, but the overlap would be a clear signal.)

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Daily - Start of a Diagonal as Alternate

Why this count? Within any diagonal, waves 2 and 4 simply 'must' be zigzags. The clearest upward zigzag on the chart is the present one. That 'likely' means it is wave 2.

The clear downward diagonal in October would be the minute ((a)) wave, as diagonals are 'often' A waves. The November correction counts best a a double zigzag, and while it 'could be' a second wave, if one fiddles with the count to get it to be a simple zigzag, as it is, it would count better as the minute ((b)) wave.

The December decline would be the minute ((c)) wave of the Minor 1 wave. It has no divergence on the daily Elliott Wave Oscillator. The entire zigzag lower would have formed in a neat channel.

This second wave up, Minor 2, if it did not form a triangle, would be a clear "degree violation" with the minute ((b)) wave. Therefore, it would have to be the larger degree wave.

I am not in favor of calling the diagonal down in October a three-wave sequence. The reason is that it's entire length down was needed to establish the lengths of the sub-waves in the December decline.

Clearly such a forming downward diagonal in no way implies that the entire bear market is over as some suggest. Once again, I do not like changing wave labels, but if overlap occurs, it would likely break rules that can not be broken, and I will always follow the rules.

Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe

P.S. Based on the hourly futures, and all of it's overlaps, this is the only upward count I can get to work.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Hourly - Too Many Overlaps

Fewer Words Today

Primarily just a chart. Price has returned to the underside of the breakdown of the head-and-shoulders in the red line. And ...

Have a good weekend.
TraderJoe

Three for Three

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Three FED chair persons were interviewed today, and the result, so far, is 'three-waves-up". The three waves up, so far, are: 0 = 2,347, a = 2,521, b = 2,444, and c = 2,538. That's all well and good. We do not know for certain that the up waves are complete. There was not a good clear sign of reversal by the end of the day.

Daily ES prices had another outside reversal day; this one was to the upside. Prices tried to tag the 18-day SMA but just missed it.

If upward movement should end here, then the three waves up 'could' be part still of a minuet wave (iv) triangle. And if upward movement continues, then we'll look for the best count that fits it. Right now, it's a bit of a "wait and see" game.

So, remain flexible, calm and patient.

Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe

Still Nothing Preventing Wave Minuet (iv)

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Red Marubozu
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

After trying hard to break upwardly through the 2,520 resistance level, stock prices as measured by the S&P500 cash index gapped down and fell back today. They made a lower low, and began to display some of the 'post-pattern behavior' one would expect if the minuet (iv) wave count was correct. The Dow Jones Industrials were lower by some 660 points, and the S&P500 cash index by some 62 points.

S&P500 Cash - Daily - Minuet (iv) Likely Completed

Wave minuet (iv) is more involved and complicated than minuet (ii), although the shape is similar, and it takes considerably more time. Therefore, there is a minimum pattern of alternation shown.

Tomorrow are two significant pieces of information: 1) the employment report, and 2) a combined NY Times interview with FED chairs Powell, Yellen and Bernanke. Given all that, even though a lower low below minuet (iii) is expected, it could be bumpy as get all. A triangle for wave minuet (iv) is even a possibility, but so is a plain old impulse for wave minuet (v). It should be clear than if wave (v) = (i), then it would make a new low. But, it could go lower than that, too!

Best wishes for a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe