Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Still The One

There were initial marginal higher highs in the stock indexes today, followed by a somewhat weaker close.  The S&P500 did have a second higher high in the day that was not confirmed by the Russell 2000 futures. The count below still remains the best one at this  time..

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 4 Hr Chart - Diagonal Still Possible for Minute ((c))

The potential diagonal remains solidly on the table. As of the ES settlement, by measurement, there were still five points of possible overlap with waves (iv) and (i) based on the length shown for a third wave. Again, a fourth wave (iv) should remain shorter in time than wave (ii) to maintain a diagonal. As always, a diagonal must form properly in every detail or an alternate would have to be selected. But, we will address that issue if it should come to it.

Today, price got very, very close to the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe


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35 comments:

  1. TachyonJanuary 16, 2019 at 5:34 PM

    VXX hinting at possible fifth wave truncation. Thank you Mr Joe! :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. SgrifJanuary 16, 2019 at 9:07 PM

    A Zweig Breadth Thrust was triggered during this advance since late December. It's a pretty rare event. It signals more advances in the market. Interested in what you all think??
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1148881/chartbook/639387067

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    Replies
    1. Pittsburgh TomJanuary 16, 2019 at 9:37 PM

      So here is the official tally of all of the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals over 87 years of market breadth history:

      Signal type Quantity

      Great! 11
      Meh… 4
      Horrible 12

      Tom McClellan
      Editor, The McClellan Market Report

      Link to entire article
      https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/zweig_breadth_thrust_signal/

      Delete
    2. DrewJanuary 17, 2019 at 4:11 PM

      Excellent and detailed post on the most recent Zweig Thrust as well as the overall strength of this bounce at The Fat Pitch blog:

      http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2019/01/weekly-market-summary_12.html

      Delete
  3. SgrifJanuary 16, 2019 at 9:09 PM

    You can read about the indicator here..
    https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2015/10/tom-mcclellan-zweig-breadth-thrust-signal.html

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  4. Pittsburgh TomJanuary 16, 2019 at 11:06 PM

    Joe,
    Would like to get your considered opinion.
    Assuming the current count is correct we find the market in a place where we have overlap with the initial down move off of the ATH. Technically we could move lower in wave 3 down or we could move lower in b of 2 with c of 2 up to follow. In the wave personality section of EWT wave 2 is designed to convince investors that the initial move (down in this case) is over and the bull is back. I don't think the recovery of the market to this point has accomplished that task. This as well as time considerations make me lean towards the b down of 2 scenario. Wondering what your thoughts might be.

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 8:55 AM

      Your question is self-contradictory. The first half of it assumes the current count is correct; the second half of it assumes the current count is not correct. I said I would address alternates if the diagonal does not form correctly in every detail.

      Delete
  5. bergJanuary 16, 2019 at 11:16 PM

    Joe,
    Is there a minimum requirement before this wave ((C)) could be allowed to fail?

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 8:44 AM

      Generally, (v) would need to be a minimum of 78% of (iii) before the larger minute ((c)) failed.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 11:21 AM

      Measurements show that as of 11:15 ET, futures are now over that 78% level.

      Delete
    3. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 11:51 AM

      what are termial time or values for (ii) (iii) - ? same as chart above?

      Delete
    4. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 11:52 AM

      you must be talking about above .786 of (ii) to (iii). Not an extension of (ii) to (iii) - correct?

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 12:06 PM

      retrace of (v) on (iii) vs (iv).

      Delete
    6. bergJanuary 17, 2019 at 4:56 PM

      Thanks

      Delete
  6. BBRiderJanuary 17, 2019 at 7:36 AM

    Got the ES overlap.

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  7. UnknownJanuary 17, 2019 at 12:00 PM

    Thanks Joe... Waves working out just like your chart.

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    Replies
    1. Walter KrajewskiJanuary 17, 2019 at 12:57 PM

      Please make sure to login. Joe usually doesn't respond to unknown accounts :-)

      Delete
  8. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 12:59 PM

    Now getting some downward overlaps in the futures.

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    Replies
    1. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 1:33 PM

      thanks joe.
      i think this is now ((3)) of (5), but its completing A of zigzag off lows not C. Time will tell. What invalidates your count?

      Delete
  9. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 1:55 PM

    although i think your count is complete just as you scripted - so thats primary until proven otherwise

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  10. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:06 PM

    So, here is a version with better alternation; I removed the prior one.

    https://invst.ly/9ta4h

    The current wave would have ((5)) = ((1)).
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:14 PM

      black 1 circle 1 may be violation - its close - i think black 1 longer and larger

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:35 PM

      What if ((1)) is actually a contracting leading diagonal, and a zz for ((2))? N/v/a/t.

      Delete
    3. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:37 PM

      yep. what is nvat

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:38 PM

      "no/violation/at/all" .. lol.

      Delete
    5. Roy C.January 17, 2019 at 2:46 PM

      Nice one, Joe!

      Delete
  11. RobertJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:55 PM

    Releasing China news to help prop up market. Classic

    ReplyDelete
  12. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:56 PM

    c wave 'blows the cork'; invalidation of (v) if (v) > (iii) at 2,655.75

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJanuary 17, 2019 at 3:02 PM

      Here's an updated chart; the form of the move is currently what is expected.

      https://invst.ly/9taoj

      TJ

      Delete
    2. marcJanuary 17, 2019 at 3:07 PM

      nice got overlaps

      Delete
  13. TachyonJanuary 17, 2019 at 2:57 PM

    Outstanding call, Joe!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Erik BJanuary 17, 2019 at 3:03 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete

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