Six Days in August

First, the long-term count consideration: regular readers of this blog have seen me repeatedly write that I have not "ruled out" the expanding diagonal interpretation of a Cycle Vth wave. That remains true: I have not ruled it out. What is new with this week in August is that such a count can now be specifically "ruled in". That does not mean it is the operative count. That means, specifically, that there is now evidence for it, as in the ES monthly chart below.

ES Futures - Monthly - Log Longer Wave Up

Notice that wave (3) on the exponential form of the chart is now "log longer" than wave (1) as shown by the Fibonacci ruler at high. This is the evidence that makes the expanding diagonal count now possible, according to the 'rules'. That is why we labeled the prior high with an alternate red (3) in Tuesday's post. Further, we don't 'know' a top is in. So, the expanding diagonal is a valid interpretation on the log scale chart. And, the question is whether the up waves better count as 'fives' or as 'threes'. According to degree labeling we get better counts with 'threes', but we can't argue with the logic that there was, indeed, a significant higher high, after wave (1) - which possibly makes it, wave one, a 'five'. We just couldn't find anything like a long-in-time fourth wave in that wave to count it as such. Readers can also verify that within red wave (3) that red wave A and red wave C are now about the same length, a truly interesting detail but not proof-positive.

Now for the local count of the six days. As shown in the S&P500 cash index below, there appears to be an impulse lower that kicks off with the third wave breaking the 'base channel' lower from the Kennedy Channeling Technique (KCT).

S&P500 Cash Index - 30 min - KCT

We showed this count before in the comments for a prior post, caught the bottom to within the half-hour, and price has since rebounded to the upper parallel channel line. Notice that wave ④ came back to the underside of the KCT which is an expectation of the technique. And wave ④ now offers also a retrace to an approximate 62% Fib level. Wave ③ occurs on a low of MACD, and wave ⑤ occurs on a divergence with MACD. So, this appears to be a textbook impulse wave. And that means its high is very important. So far, we think there will at least be a lower low after it. But, the caveat is it is just not that long, overall, and it did not overlap anything important downward. Maybe a subsequent wave will. It just hasn't yet.

But, readers should question, why did this hourly down wave follow the KCT, but the monthly up wave does not? The market is fractal, right? Shouldn't an upward impulse follow the KCT, too? But, clearly the upward monthly wave does not. This might be a clue why the upward wave is not an impulse but a diagonal. Its grinding character might be another clue.

Two channels are shown on the monthly chart, above. The smaller blue channel are for those who might expect a grinding wave upward. The lower, larger, gray channel is for the possibility that maybe the expanding diagonal does play out. It might allow red wave (4) to overlap with red wave (1).

And what about the contracting diagonal, for the indexes? Nothing has ruled that 'out' yet. It is still a perfectly valid count. It might have some more grinding to do, but we'll have to watch it's length. As a reminder, here is that count.

ES Futures - Monthly - Contracting Diagonal

While this is the currently operative count, there are some factors that tend to rule it out. They are the higher highs in the MACD, and price exceeding 78% in the current up wave. Then, there is always the pesky fact that the S&P500  did not downwardly overlap in 2025 like the Dow and the NQ did.

But the only thing that rules it out definitively is a price high above 8,508.50 as the fifth wave in a contracting diagonal can not exceed the third wave.

So, we have learned a lot in this month of August, and we will learn more if the prior all-time high should be exceeded. That is the spot to watch.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Retreat towards 18-SMA

The ES daily futures lost their embedded status and price has concomitantly retreated down towards the 18-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), as per the ES futures daily chart, below.

ES Futures - Daily - Loss of Embedded Status

So far, the swing-line indicator only has a higher high and a lower low. For a trend, one would want to see lower highs and lower lows below the 18-day SMA. So, a retrace upward certainly could be expected. For this reason, and the fact, that we can count five waves down on the SPY (cash) 15-min according to The Eight-Fold-Path Method, as in the comments for the prior post, one should place a wave-counting-stop (WCS) above the prior high.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TJ

Current Count and Alt

Here's the current situation on the SPX500 (CFD) 4-hr chart. The black diagonal count reflects the fact that there is no good divergence yet with the NYSE A/D line.

The wave up from blue (b) to blue (c) or red 4 to red 5 is an impulse in either count. This is another good illustration of how The Principle of Equivalence plays out in practice: some impulse segments can be parts of two counts.

Three key factors in either count are: 1) the current down wave has traded below the Ⓐ wave of the prior triangle, at micro degree, 2) the current down wave is longer in price than wave ii of the prior impulse, as shown, 3) while a Flat for blue wave iv is still technically possible, it looks to be much lower odds at this point because it's up wave would be longer-in-time than the prior wave iii, the previous higher degree wave in the same direction, and this would seem to be a violation of degree definitions. So watch the high of this down wave.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Werds

Some people can take up so much of your time with their shameless self-promotion, subscription fees, videos that contain advertising, or channels that provide them with clicks or likes. We decided long ago this was unacceptable. So, we'll provide the effort-saving chart, below.

It would be nice to see a few more of the items to be in evidence. That's all. Simple.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe 

Wedgie

The currently wedging and overlapping SPY (5-min) has filled its opening gap up, and filled its prior gap in the down direction, as in the chart below.

SPY (Cash) - 5 min - Wedging

The pattern needs to be watched to see if it breaks upward or downward with conviction.

Have an excellent start to the day.

TraderJoe

Threatening - But Not Yet Imminent

When looking over the Dow daily chart, there are several examples seen in the prior high on Jul 6th where one can potentially count a diagonal. However, none of those diagonals came to pass - they were not fully retraced in less 'time' than the diagonal took to form - and, in fact, there has been a higher high since. This usually happens when the potential diagonal is part of a sickening "b" wave upward. Regardless, we now know they were not diagonals. So what does this mean? Well, I think it helps to back off and look at the Dow futures daily chart, as below.

Dow Futures (YM) - Daily Close - Parallel

As the chart shows, the wave up from the April 2025 low parallels extremely well. This is supposed to mean the move is corrective, unless the price gets substantially over the upper parallel. As of this time price has not even reached the parallel. And, as the saying goes from the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, "A line drawn from the start of A to the end of B, with a parallel copy placed on the end of the A wave often shows the end of the C wave."

Now clearly that does not work every time. That is, in part, what the Kennedy Channeling Technique (KCT) is about: when a wave bursts through that upper parallel, that is when a third wave can often be identified.

But, here again, this is only a tendency of the KCT, too, because sometimes a C wave is 1.27 x A, or even 1.618 x A, depending on the circumstances, and then prices peek up out of the channel and then revert.

Nothing works all the time, and again, this is almost always a situation with odds. Last night I was playing tile rummy, and the first thing you do is draw tiles numbered with integers from a pool of 100 tiles. You draw twelve tiles. So, that means roughly from the pool of integers, one should expect six even and six odd tiles from a well-mixed set of tiles - which they were. What did I draw? Fully 11 odd tiles and only 1 even tile! Can you imagine the odds of that? Yet, the low odds event did occur - sure as I'm writing this.

So, even though the Dow looks like it might want to lead down first after some further potential upside - just like it did in 2000 - that does not mean it's a 'lock'. As of yet, the only alternation in the chart above can be stated as "long A, short C". One might have hoped for "Impulse A, and Diagonal C", but that is not on the board yet. It could be. So, I retain that option if things drag on & on.

In the meanwhile, just like a view of the weather radar, one has to say the potential severe storm that is several states away is "threatening, but not yet imminent". It could get rough, soon. So far, it hasn't.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

CoD

This is a Friday morning Chart-of-the-Day (CoD), the SPX500 (CFD) 30-min intraday wave counting screen (IWCS). After a pop up on the dismal Payroll Report, with traders hoping for a rate cut, the up wave could not sustain the fourth wave of an impulse and instead lost the embedded reading of the intraday slow stochastic (black circle).

SPX500 (CFD) - 30 min - IWCS

When that occurred, price returned to the intraday 18-SMA and also overlapped the prior wave downward, with a longer wave in price than the prior down wave. Since then, price has popped again in whippy volatile trade. This seems to suggest that price will either make a triangle or a fifth wave expanding diagonal upward.

Comments for this blog remain on moderation. Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Based on the Wave Sizes Alone (i.e. Degree Labeling)

I wasn't a big fan of the triangle sketched out earlier in the comments for the prior posts. So, after the heat of the battle, I took a step back to weekly chart, and the following count occurs to me that it can not be ruled out.

SPX500 (CFD) - Weekly Close - Looking for Minor C

Based only on the sizes of the A and B waves, that is, based on degree labeling alone - it can not be ruled out that Minor wave C will be a contracting ending diagonal. We all know the (b) wave went essentially nowhere and had different forms in different markets. This might be a reason why.

Price is making higher highs which is also a potential sign of a diagonal or something larger upward. If this is what should wind up occurring, it would also be one of the trickiest waves of a lifetime. I will also offer the caution that this is still hypothetical and very risky.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

The Ups & Downs = Be Flexible

Here are two scenarios for the current wave movement. The upward chart is first. Triangles are a pretty 'typical' pattern and often happen before the ending sequence of a wave. As such, it has slightly better odds than the downward pattern.

The purpose of the above the triangle is to still better equalize the wave travel downward between wave (e) of the potential triangle and the second wave circle-ii, minute-ii. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is still in range for a fourth wave.

The second scenario is high risk & lower odds. It is that a downward diagonal has started without a really large downward reversal candle. With the three-waves down that we analyzed in the prior post, the down movement would likely have to be a diagonal, and it has a pretty strict invalidation limit.

It merely assumes that the triangle has already occurred as there IS a potential wave four and weak wave five signature on the EWO. The triangle is also a bit skewed and that increases the low odds of the pattern. But, it is what it is. Lower odds, but possible. One thing to like about the second pattern is that the equalization between minute-ii, circle-ii & minute-iv, circle-iv is that the equalization has already occurred.

So, just be careful, flexible & patient until something begins to take over the count. 

Have an excellent start to the day.

TraderJoe

The 'Exact' Number - 2

As readers of this blog know, the 18-day simple moving average (SMA) is something of a demarcation, a "line in the sand" between a daily closing positive bias and a daily closing negative bias. On Thursday and Friday the ES futures played around on both sides of that line, with Friday (in the extended hours) closing below it, or in the regular settlement, probably just about on it. But the ES 4-hr chart does have another exact point of division between two counts, as shown in the chart, below.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Location of Expanding Diagonal Invalidation

That point is 7,563.50 and above it an expanding diagonal lower would be ruled out. Should it not be ruled out, and the expanding diagonal continue lower, then that would put a truncated top on July 15th, with the expanding diagonal lower as the first wave in a lower sequence. 

However, if the 7,563.50 point is taken out, higher, then The Principle of Equivalence, says "consider other options", and one such option is shown below. That being the case, we need to ask, "do we know literally anything about this wave sequence, or is it all guesswork?"

Well, were are as certain as one can be that there was an overlapping expanding diagonal downward that completed on Thursday, as shown in the chart below, numbered ➀ - ➄ from what is shown as wave b to c. And that small degree expanding diagonal lower was already exceeded higher in less time than it took to form - a true diagonal.

That would leave a very large running triangle as the middle structure, and cause the whole count to be a-b-c, down. And such a structure could still be a leg of a triangle that is eventually still pointing upward - as a larger (c) wave down. That is because, if the prior wave, the (b), up, of the triangle was the complex leg, then this leg down should be a simple zigzag - which it clearly can be formulated to be, even if it is ugly.

This is part of the essence of The Principle of Equivalence. A portion of it alludes to being very careful when only 'three-wave' sequences are involved. It helps stems the "fight or flight" instincts we are all prone to and urges some degree of caution, patience and flexibility until the wave count clears.

And, when you have a single point of departure between two counts, that patient wait becomes a bit more tolerable. Yes, the market knows you just want to make a profit. The ambiguity in the counts is one of the market's very survival mechanisms so that it can't be clearly read and it avoids having all traders on the same side of the trades.

IF we get only an a-b-c, down, is that necessarily the end of the down move? No. But it would likely mean that any further down move is happening by a larger diagonal. And, if the market hasn't been brutal enough, already, I don't personally relish even larger sized whippy waves, especially in three-wave sequences.

Well, it's simple. That's a large extent of what we have available now. There is some significant probability Monday will be an up day due to "the first-of-the-month-money", but I have seen it fail on rare occasion. So, unless you have some much better market metrics, you might want to wait just a bit to see what the next few days bring and/or tread ultra-lightly to see what the market might be saying.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Back-test of Line in the the Sand

In the SPX500 (CFD) Daily the up movement overnight and this morning is back-testing the 18-day SMA or "the line in the sand", as in the chart below.

Locally, the swing line could turn up, but needs a close above the 18-day SMA. The daily slow stochastic is curling up. One might watch the local fractals for clues. There are still both up counts and down counts. 

Have an excellent start to the day,

TraderJoe

Good Brakes

Yesterday, we pointed out three options for local price movement. The NQ futures made a new daily low today. The ES futures did not. I don't know if you had the money to stop the ES futures from declining through the lows today, but somebody did. Twice! The exceptional number of double-bottoms is getting very suspicious. The ES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr chart is below.

SPX500 (CFD) - 1 Hr - Double-Bottom?

With the higher local high around noon there is now the possibility, not the certainty, of sub-waves ① and ② of a third wave, iii, upward, as these waves are currently shorter in price & time than the larger degree waves i and ii, the prior higher degree waves in the same directions.

There is nothing definitive that rules out further down movement at this point, and it is still possible that the (e) wave could be a triangle itself.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Trois Choix

IF we were in France, it would mean three "choices" or three "options" for the local count. The ES 4-hr chart and the ES 1-hr chart with further explanation are below. On le menu are blue x, blue i or red (ii) of diagonal.

ES/SPY (CFD) - 4 Hr - Three Choices

Alot currently depends on whether we go through the low again. That can not be emphasized enough. The option of a i ?, up, depends on the entire up wave having been an expanding diagonal, as below. It does have the right measurements and internal structures.

ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 Hr - Whole Up Wave as Expanding Diagonal

The (e) wave of the triangle simply has not invalidated yet. So, all we're getting thus far, is volatility.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TJ

Eerily Similar with 'The Right Look' - Not Confirmed

Here is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Index. I have endeavored to count each market as a "five". I have tried to use "impulses" where they best seem to apply based on the rules and degree-labeling definitions. Notice how much green there is in the volume graph in 2025 & 2026.  Why didn't they like them so much in 2017 & 2018 when prices were much lower?!. They sure liked them more in 2025. As far as I can tell, one enormous difference between the NDX, SPX and DJIA is the presence of the "running wave" in the NDX in 2020. This would be an omen for "exceptional upward strength to follow". Note, too, wave (4) overlaps wave (1).

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Index - Monthly - Five Up

And here is the boring ole' DJIA futures (YM).

Dow Industrials (YM) Futures - Monthly - Similar to NDX

The Dow, too, has the overlap. It is eerily similar to the NDX, with the exception of the absence of the running wave in 2020. Although I have tried to count impulses wherever practical, the grinding nature of the chart - especially in 2023 made it seemingly impossible without breaking 'rules' or the degree definitions. So, A-B-C or W-X-Y sequences result in the sub-waves. Keep in mind the A's and C's are still impulses or diagonals. But, there can be a "five-count", up, overall.

Again, neither of these counts are confirmed, and there IS a monthly alternate, yet - the expanding diagonal. And besides the longer term alternate, there is the local alternate of a triangle on the daily chart - as noted before - that could still point upward, but I'm not buying any hopium on that one. I'm just counting waves. Right now, all of the Minor degree waves are visible, and a partial downturn is also just showing up on the charts.

The confirmation process would only 'start' with 1) trading below the upper rising trend line, again, and 2) a break below the Minor B wave of Intermediate (5). Price is nowhere close yet. And, then, there are further confirmation steps after that.

I have intentionally tried not to rush 'any' count. I'll be as patient as the day is long. Right now these are the wave sequences that best seem to fit. That could change. But, I think it's important that readers be aware of the potential of these counts as they tend to indicate that any serious down movement could occur quite rapidly once it gets recognized and/or confirmed enough for the Smart Money to act on it.

This is the second post this weekend, and if you haven't read the first one yet, you might like to. Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

The 'Exact' Number

As we were discussing on Friday, the market has not yet disproved the case for the (e) wave of a fourth wave triangle. I doubt few other analysts will tell you this, but I will provide you with the 'exact' number to disprove a different case. The ES 4-hr chart is below. 

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Exact Number

I'm showing you one upward Fibonacci ruler for a reason. But first, I want to speak about a different measurement - which readers of this blog should confirm for themselves - that's why I'm not showing it. That measurement is that the second down wave labeled, i, is just pips shorter than the first down wave labeled (i), So, by degree labeling, the second down wave could either be "c" of a-b-c down that we have showed before - because the two waves are similar in length - and this would make up the (e) wave of the triangle, Orrrrrr, the second down wave can be a sub-wave of a larger wave (iii), down, yet to follow.

What few others won't tell you - because they don't follow degree labeling to the extent they should - is that there is an exact measurement that likely voids the nested (i), (ii), i, ii down count. And very, very coincidentally, that number is ES 7,500.00 to the tee. The market stopped just short of there on Friday's up move. Why did it do that? Is it nesting for a third wave? Well, this is certainly plausible. It is not at all proven. The pattern needs downward length to activate it. It might get it. It might not. The odds in the absence of knowing what the weekend news will be are pretty close to neutral - maybe 45 : 55 upside to downside, and that slight tilt downward is largely because price is still below the 18-day SMA, with a downward swing-line indicator at the moment.

So, to make it clear, trading above 7,500.00 in the ES Sep futures likely voids the nested down count because wave ii would become longer than wave (ii) in price length and would likely run afoul of degree definitions. And, trading above 7,500 would likely put the (e) wave of the triangle back on the table at the lows.

So, with only a smaller degree a-b-c up that we labeled on Friday afternoon, how would we make a fifth wave up out the (e) wave of the triangle? It would likely have to start with a larger diagonal, and not take out the prior lows.

Alternatively, taking out the lows of Thursday/Friday in the overnight Sunday or Monday would be more indicative of the larger downward movement because that would rule out Friday's upward smaller degree a-b-c from becoming a larger diagonal.

The market is giving us some clues to work with - some crumbs to follow - as awful as the wave counting and trading currently is.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Until it No Longer Works

The best on-line estimate is that there are approximately 198,000 - 200,000 people employed in New York City's securities industry. And, world-wide there are approximately 1.09 million people employed in the financial empires. They are essentially paid to buy stocks, bonds, mortgage securities, etc. You get the idea. And, as you can see from this "end-of-day" one-minute chart, they were doing that at the end of the day and even past the cash close. They 'must have' more stock (or futures in this case).

ES SEP Futures - 1 min - Until They Can't

Think of it. This is what they are paid to do. They wait until the end of the day, and then they buy and they buy and they buy. Clearly, they are Smart enough to count to five, and to measure to 2.618, and they are going to do this every day - every single day. Why? Because their bosses tell them to. Their employers are Smarter than them (clearly), and they are well-connected with people with gobs of money who benefit when stocks go Up. They don't benefit so much when stocks go (shush, gulp) down.

Today was 'mostly' a down day in the equities indexes. The daily ES futures - at one point - hit its lower daily Bollinger Band, before some of this rebounding took place.

My question is this: What will these minions do IF or when stock prices do decide to head for a steep decline? Are they going to continue the rabid buying into the close because they're told too - even, again, if it should turn into a down market? Why would they do that? They are Smart, aren't they? Although I am not claiming the market is acting like a perpetual motion machine (which really only applies to a closed system), there comes such a time as people remember this is largely a confidence game, and at some point confidence gets stretched to the point of incredulity before it unravels.

It becomes apparent how the machines are being used to make this happen, and how - at some point - there is a sense of diminishing returns. Oh yea, that's right, today was a down day. But, they were buying hands-and-fists into that close. And they are going to do that until their employers realize that it just isn't working any more. Sometimes, they are a bit slow on the uptake - if you get my drift.

The point is - in a true bear market - they 'sell' into the close because they figure it is likely the next day's prices will be worse than today's prices.

For the ES, the Elliott Wave count has not changed. This can still be the (e) wave down of the triangle but - as stated previously - it certainly doesn't have to be. The lower this wave goes, the lower is the likelihood of that count holding.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Stubborn Refusal - 3

The triangle count in the ES daily futures hung on by a thread, as in the daily futures chart, below. This is the lead month contract only. The roll-over contract can count the same.

ES Futures - Daily - Triangle Continuation

Price closed back above the 18-day SMA, switching the daily bias back to 'up'. The daily slow stochastic is not yet over-sold. There is already upward overlap on the downward (e) wave, if that's what it is. The exact equal bottoms in the (e) wave - at 7,473.00 - are a real feat of financial engineering by someone.

If the down wave was not the (e) wave, it is possible for it to be another x wave of the (d) wave. But, by the rules, it would be the last potential x wave in the (d) wave series. Then the (d) wave could head for the highs again.

Stay calm flexible and patient while this resolves. Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Stubborn Refusal - 2

Today was an inside day in the daily ES futures, as shown in the chart below. It did little to clarify the EW count.

The swing-line indicator, currently has a higher high before the lower low, so a full trend is not in force yet. But, there are two closes below the 18-day SMA, and that keeps the current daily price bias down. With the inside day, though, it would be relatively easy to turn the swing line lower.

I need to emphasize, the count shown in the chart above only comes into play if and only if the triangle scenario busts. It hasn't yet. We fully expected price to get down to this level, the level of the prior x wave of the (d) wave in the triangle count - even if the triangle remained in control. It has gotten darn close.

But, price length downward or upward is what matters now, so we need to take it slowly, cautiously and with a whale of a lot of flexibility until we see which direction that length points.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Stubborn Refusal

Many analysts have not fully acknowledged that both the ES and the NQ futures made new all-time highs (NQ on 16 Jun) if their roll-over contracts are considered (again, those are the contracts where the prior contract month's prices and the new contract month's prices are just stitched together - with no adjustment - on the volume roll over date given by the exchange, often the CME). That fact confuses Elliott Wave analysis a bit because one can ask, "is it a new high or isn't it?". Well, it can be but it doesn't have to be. Similarly, I have stubbornly refused to analyze the NQ futures until something at least reasonably clear became apparent. Why? Because there was no point. Now, we can at least look at a chart and suggest some plausible options. The NQ daily chart (roll-over contract) is below.

NQ Futures Roll-over Contract - Daily - Ambiguous

So, there are two counts here. One way the ambiguity in the roll-over and lead-month's contracts can be resolved is if the the marginal new high is just a blue (b) wave shown above. That can make the diagonal down a blue (c) wave, and price could imaginarily or actually go over the high again. 

The other way to resolve the ambiguity is if the minor higher high is actually a black minuet (v)th wave of the minute ⓥth wave in the Minor C wave count that ends the move. Then, price would not go over the high again.

What makes the pattern ambiguous is that a diagonal, itself, is often ambiguous. We know it can be either leading or ending in certain circumstances. I contend it is one of the market's very survival mechanisms. Otherwise, traders would be too sure of what the count was. And this pattern would be the 3-3-3-3-3 variety which is allowed to be either. If it were the 5-3-5-3-5 pattern it would decrease the ambiguity - because that pattern is thought to be 'leading only'.

None-the-less, there are two factors of wave counting which are much, much less ambiguous. Those are, 1) the extent of price travel, and 2) the time taken to travel. (As an aside, sometimes trend lines are less ambiguous, too, but which trend line then becomes the key.) But back to the analysis.

There is no question that this down wave in the NQ has taken more time than any of the down waves since the Minor B low. As regular readers of this blog know, that may change the degree. The last lone option is likely the (c) wave of a Flat, because fourth waves can take more time, and even travel slightly more than their second waves.

In terms of price extent, we know that the 9th Jun low has not been exceeded yet. We are leaving room above that it could be. That might introduce some motive character into the down wave. But, it could still be just the (c) wave of a flat.

Still, at some point, the time factor, and the degree change will over-rule the price extent and likely point lower. We could be nearing that point now. But bear in mind that even a diagonal likely needs a retrace wave, and that could be quite a stiff one and near the highs again. (It certainly does not have to, but it can).

That is why I always say when counting a downward diagonal, "we have a diagonal, watch the high". I am saying that here, too. If a new high is not made, it is possible for the green 1 ? on the lower right to prevail.

Keep in mind with the different indexes that they simply have different stocks in them, so they can top at slightly different times.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

Cobbler - 3

If the ES daily pattern is the barrier triangle, it might look like this overall. The (d) wave looks to be the complex leg of the triangle.

After the higher high in the after-hours, price traveled down to the S2 daily support pivot and bounced strongly into the close. Price did not close back below the 18-day SMA, so the daily bias is still up. And the regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic shows four closes over the 80 level, meaning it is currently embedded, until/unless it comes back under the 79 level.

It's summer whippy and difficult trading.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Cobbler - 2

The Principle of Equivalence says that within the potential barrier triangle we need to consider at least two close-in local scenarios with today's price movement lower that went essential nowhere. The first one is that the minuet (d) wave is completed as shown in the ES 4 Hr chart, below.

That would make today's expanding diagonal downward the lower degree "A" wave of the minuet (e) wave of the triangle. And, again, that (e) wave can take out the prior X wave lower.

The second scenario is that the expanding diagonal today ended the lower degree (C) wave of an expanded flat of a Ⓑ wave - since it went nowhere important - and the (d) wave requires a higher high Ⓒ wave up, to finish the Y wave, now, as in the chart below.

I have no preference which occurs. I have no dog in the fight. On the daily chart, price is still above the 18-day SMA. The rationale for the second count is that often in a barrier triangle prices quickly go over the prior high, then settle back under it on the close using the timeframe of interest (ES 8 Hr or daily here). That hasn't happened yet. It could.

Note, the MACD is curled over on the 4-Hr. There is a 'way' we could have topped. But price extension lower isn't showing it yet. Maybe it will. It just hasn't yet. I'll be keeping my eyes open.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Cobbler

Like the shoe repairman that tries to save a worn-out pair with new soles, or even more like one of your favorite Savannah, GA peach deserts, I have tried to cobble together the count from what was lying around and available for use - segments we counted earlier. Using the ES 8-hr roll-over contract - the one that is most actively traded - provides this possible view of a barrier triangle. At least it does at this time.

ES Futures (Roll-over contract) - 8 Hr - Possible Barrier Triangle

Friday's up wave is so close to nicking the high that we must allow that it might. If it does, then, it might be a second zigzag upward of the double zigzag w-x-y count to the minuet (d) wave of the triangle. And, this wave may be allowed to go over the top, again, within certain limits.

From this high, it is perhaps possible to make the (e) wave of the triangle, which probably (not certainly) would take out the prior x wave lower. Notice the (c) wave, lower, only retraced a little over 62%, so something similar should be expected for the (e) wave. From there, the minute ⓥ wave top should occur as an impulse or as a diagonal to end the Minor C wave, up.

Now, notice the pattern on the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO). You can see the contracting lines across the peaks and valleys and fairly tight hugging of the zero line overall that typically signal a contracting triangle.

If the triangle validates, with a higher high after the (e) wave, it might signal "the last wave dead-ahead" for this index. And, often, not always, the thrust out of a barrier triangle is sub-par. It might not travel the typical technical analysis target of "widest-width-of-the-triangle-added-to-the-breakout-point". It might. But it might not.

We have been looking for a formation that might signal the end of the monthly contracting diagonal, and this might be the start of it. Time will tell. And, yes, the current position shown of the C wave is just a placeholder. It is possible that Goldman & Co will try to drive the market to their 8,000+ target, which would be a Fibonacci number of 8 x 1000. But it might not get there, either.

So, why the barrier triangle? The compression of the triangle is trying to shorten up the minuet (e) wave, and thus all of the minute fourth wave triangle to be more equal in price to the minute second wave which was a fairly small wave. Remember triangles are always measured, pricewise, to their (e) waves. And yet the triangle would show huge alternation in time with its second wave, as shown in the daily chart, below.

ES Futures (Roll-over Contract) - Daily - Barrier Triangle

Again, right now we don't have any overlapping waves (in terms of minute ⓘ) to play off of. So, it still follows the 'rules' to call this a fourth wave overall. There are alternates from here. We could have topped but the odds of that grow lower with the higher highs. And it is possible a final upward contracting diagonal is being constructed to drag this thing out into oblivion. But we'll deal with these possibilities if and when they seem to take over the count.

For now, have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe

So They'll Never Know

Today we were counting the fifth wave up in an hourly ES impulse, and that occurred until approximately 10:30 am and a price of ES 7,605. The up wave took 49 hourly candles to build. Then, at about 10:30 am a fully 55-point downdraft bar occurred which was a clear stop-runner. Checking an amalgam of newswires, you won't see that "minor excursion (sic?)" explained anywhere. It 'might' have had something to do with POTUS not signing a housing bill, or with the SK Hynix debut, or with the Iran war. No one on Wall $treet apparently owes you an explanation. They won't tell you, and you likely will never find out for sure. The hourly chart of the ES futures showing this bar is below. One thing we know is that in the futures, it went down to overlap bar xi and so likely starts a new wave.

ES Futures - 1 Hr - Five Up & One Bar Down

Of course, being Friday, the machine nanobots bought the bar and squeezed it like there was no tomorrow to make a new higher high. So, psychologically, "mom & pop" and most casual investors will never know the situation occurred unless they may have had a stop hit. All most people will know is stocks closed higher on the day and when they check their daily bars on a chart nothing will look out of place, a high near the high of the daily candle.

Oddly, today we had a discussion on the blog about proportionality in wave counts. So, over the last couple of days, we've had 49 bars up, and only 1 bar down?!! That just seems extremely unlikely, but there it is. The market can try to make restitution if the up wave following the bar is a "b" wave, up, and there is a "c" wave down to follow. Maybe, and likely. Not guaranteed.

Regardless, not only the speed of the recovery, but the complete lack of explanation seems to make the situation just another incident in the never-ending Ponzi scheme of leverage driving this market. The problem is you have to find someone who gives a flying flip. The biggies are passively in this thing, and they literally do not care as long as prices are up. It feels like the leverage is getting more & more extreme. At some point, the leverage will be seen to revealed for what it is. 

Maybe later we'll have more to say about the wave count. Like I said, nothing in the down direction will surprise me. I just can't help wondering about the financial professionals and what they are thinking. Do they see no value whatever in letting some gas out of the system slowly so that it doesn't all come out at once? I guess not.

Well, no one ever blamed the keepers of the keys with exercising judgement that was too good.

Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.

TraderJoe

If today was, what was yesterday?

Today from the open we counted most or all of a five-up wave. If that's the case, what was yesterday? Below is the chart of of the ES/SPY (CFD) on the 1-Hr timeframe.

All of the waves up, yesterday, and in the overnight, were so incredibly overlapping that the likely structure up was that of a contracting leading diagonal. The waves have the right length and the right form, and the up wave from 06:00 yesterday to the cash open - which was never seen in the SPY cash - is then well accounted for. This morning's roller-coaster machinations at the open become a b/ii wave. And, so far, the up wave is in a parallel.

Also, as we discussed yesterday, we came almost up to the prior high and almost made yet another double top. As stated earlier, there is significant risk of going over the prior high and/or the prior all-time high.

But nothing has clearly invalidated yet, so it remains to be seen what transpires.

Meanwhile, back at the 4-hr Dow futures (YM), there appears to be a better formed five-waves-down & an upward slanting parallel after it which might bear some watching. The parallel is a smaller version of the one on the ES. But the ES does not count as nicely downward as a five-wave structure.

The market has a very strange feel to it - like every possible excuse for a wave is being used to avoid a decline. Said another way, it feels like the Smart Money knows if a decline is allowed to begin it might quickly get out of control. A similar way to say the same thing that some prior Elliott analysts use is that it is as if the market were waiting for a news story to provide the cover for a decline. Until that happens, it just hasn't, and we'll watch and count patiently.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Doubles

You'd think it was a summer co-ed tennis match, but it's this market that is literally seeing doubles almost everywhere. Today, as seen in the ES/SPY (CFD) intraday wave-counting-screen, below, there were double bottoms to within an ES point. And then there were exact double tops later in the day near the upper intraday Bollinger Band.

ES/SPY (CFD) - 30 min - Double Bottoms & Double Tops

The double bottoms are marked by the two down (red) fractals, and the double tops after noon are marked by the two up (green) fractals. As far as I can tell, casually, the double-top/double-bottom scenario is happening with increasing regularity and throws a bit of a wrench into Elliott Wave counting as it's hard to know how those get resolved. Either some large players are doing it as a matter of "support & resistance" trading, or the new meme of retail traders can't get enough of the "levels" trade. Notice, too, how many roughly equal bottoms and tops were made in the overnight session, as well. Curious.

In the next court over from Center Court, the next pair of doubles is the fact that the intraday price so far as this is written has traded back to its 18-period intraday SMA, and, of course, the daily is also back to its 18-day SMA. So, the "battle for the line in the sand" seems to be on.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the upward triangle and downward diagonal still form a logical pair as we explained with the Principle of Equivalence. We still need resolution.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Suspicious Minds - 4

The ES futures today invalidated the expanding diagonal possibility. That leaves a few options. But mostly the levels traders would probably say a new risk area has been defined as on the ES 8-hr (rollover) chart, below. 

So, the primary reason for the chart is that the formation just doesn't at this time look like a triangle. The wave labeled a/i/b is probably not deep enough for a symmetrical triangle. Or, if we are making a barrier triangle, then today's up wave is not high enough. That could change, of course.

The down wave is currently labeled as a/i/b because it could be a five-wave contracting diagonal instead of the expanding diagonal. So, that could be a/i or it could be just a three-wave structure as a b wave which might be part of a larger upward diagonal.

But, let me be clear, there is real risk of going over the top again. That could still happen in a triangle or in a diagonal. But we don't have quite enough waves to better visualize those right now.

Today was very, very overlapping and whippy. The down wave was too. So, the count remains undefined until we get more information. I would keep an eye out on that Local Trend Line.

The day after a holiday is often an up day in a relief rally when nothing seriously bad happens over the weekend. And Tuesday is often, not always, a reversal day when Monday is an up day.

We'll see how it goes. Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Suspicious Minds - 3

In the prior post on the ES September futures (front-month only) daily contract we showed the possibility of breaking up or down out of a triangle, upward, or an expanding diagonal, downward. The internals of those charts are shown below on the ES roll-over contract. This is the lead month prices stitched onto the prior expiry on the volume roll-over day in the 4-Hr timeframe.

The panel on the left shows the 15 June high as a :5, the fifth wave of the Minor C wave. That high truly is a higher all-time-high on the rollover - just not on the lead month contract when considered alone. And that high's rather impulsive look suggests it could be the fifth wave after a fourth wave flat.

If so, we may be getting an expanding diagonal downward with the remaining sequences. 

Still, The Principle of Equivalence says we should at least give roughly equal consideration to the equal and opposite pattern of a possible fourth wave triangle that is wasting a lot of time before making that final high. We haven't seen a real triangle in the Minor C wave, yet, so, yes, this could be the one.

As an Elliott analyst one has to be agnostic about the outcome until certain benchmarks are achieved such as either a new all-time high or a lower low than the 10 June low. As a trader, the job is to try to put the odds on one's side. For example, a current contraindication of price going down is that it is still closing above the 18-day SMA, and so the daily bias remains up until it does no longer. Whereas, from an Elliott perspective, if the peak on 15 June is 'actually' a five-wave sequence, then it has no business inside of a triangle pattern, which must be all three-wave sequences.

So, for example, in the triangle count it is still possible to make a lower low than the prior wave low and still be inside the triangle unless the Ⓒ wave is exceeded lower. Even, then, it might be possible to extend the triangle by dropping the lower trend line a bit, so long as the Ⓐ wave is not exceeded lower. This would make the triangle possibility extended in time by several days.

Of course, once the Ⓐ wave is exceeded lower one is well on-the-way to knowing that the diagonal is likely completing. And after the diagonal completes a pretty still retrace stiff might be expected.

This is just the market's inevitable way of having its say and not letting the profit possibility be one-sided.

So, it is still a time to be patient, calm and especially flexible. The market - as a whole - will speak, and things will become clearer. They always have and likely will continue.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

Suspicious Minds - 2

How do you like them apples? Or Odds? You see right now, the daily ES has a pattern whose wave sequences 'might' be able to all be counted as 'three-wave-sequences'. The daily ES chart is below.

So, the odds are roughly 50-50 that there is a break upward out of a triangle, or a break downward into a diagonal. Even if you're a decent wave counter, the roughly equal odds give one a pause regarding action to be taken - at least until things become a little clearer.

It is often said that "a triangle represents either indecision or a balance of forces". Well, so be it at the moment.

Tomorrow morning's Payroll Report and Unemployment Report would have to take out some significant lows or highs to make the wave count more apparent. Maybe they will. Maybe they won't. Time will tell. It seems curious after months and years of counting waves to be in this position, but here it is. We can still count the innards of a downward diagonal. And we're not oblivious to the shape above as a possible triangle or the fact that we are soon going into a major holiday weekend. So, there we are. 

While I'm on the subject of odd, or odds, I came across this peculiarity when measuring some waves in the SPY today. 

SPY Cash ETF - 1 Hr - Boomerang of Rebalancing Candle

It turns out if you clone the length of the candle that was involved in Russell rebalancing and just add that distance to the bottom of the next candle you get a perfect length match, upward as shown by the blue boxes which are copies. It's almost as if someone's ETF boss said, "look, you broke the damn thing, now fix what you broke." You don't think those kinds of shenanigans really go on, do you? Well, I do, and a whole lot more.

One other minor thing. Of course, that SPY candle breaks the definition of a contracting daily triangle because it made a lower low. But it does so only for the SPY. The other products (ES futures, SPX, etc.) seem fine. Oh well, odds are odd.

Nothing to the downside will surprise me. The volatility is frustrating. They ain't making it easy.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Suspicious Minds

Don't let the reference to the Elvis lyric throw you. Things are working out OK, so far, on the ES 2-hr with the potential contracting diagonal lower. There have been no invalidations at this point in time.

ES Futures - 2 Hr - 'Potential' Expanding Diagonal

None-the-less, there are five things to watch: 1) the high of wave 2 - please use OHLC bars for that, but I would get very, very suspicious above the current high of wave 4, 2) watch the up channel of the a-b-c zigzag to that wave 4. A significant breakdown below it, and back-test that failed, would likely indicate more lower, 3) that is the reason to watch the channel. If price regains the channel upward, it 'might' impulse. We are not there yet. 4) watch the EWO/AO as - while it is red - it should turn below zero again for this count to play out, and finally, 5) watch for more significant downward overlaps of the 'a' wave of that 4th wave.

Have an excellent start to your "no forward guidance" day. Warsh may not give any. Would you consider the above?!

A 'closer in' 15-min wave count is included below, as an "extra free bonus". Lol.

ES/SPY (CFD) - 15 Min - Local Count Currently

TraderJoe