Today was a lower low (LL) day for the ES futures, with a middlin' close (MC) as in the daily ES chart below. While the futures are still trading as this is written, we don't expect too much change before the end of their session.
Some interesting elements were 1) there was a lower low overnight in the futures which keeps the swing-line currently headed lower below the 18-day SMA, 2) there appeared to be at least initial rejection at the 18-day as price settled lower, 3) price did not reach either the lower daily Bollinger Band or the prior May 19th low which is still intact: it could, 4) the daily slow stochastic did not yet enter into over-sold territory, and 5) I showed one futures gap earlier from May 22nd that closed. I'm showing above another such close-to-open gap from May 4th which might be the next to close.
All-in-all today still feels like the fourth wave of a downward impulse until/unless that should change. But with price having two closes below the 18-day SMA for the first time in a while, the daily bias has flipped to lower for the present.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Many thanks for your level-headed and clarifying commentary, TraderJoe! 😀
ReplyDeleteAs one of many who spent today's choppy trading session struggling; and, then finally succeeding in establishing a profitable position, the confirmation provided by your analysis "feels like the fourth wave of a downward impulse" helps with a good night's sleep. 👍
Yes. You can hear the robots scream when they have to give away even a nickel! TJ
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