Like different groups preparing for a revolutionary war battle, the daily ES timeframe and the intraday are currently practicing their maneuvers - and probably in lighter volume as we head into a holiday-shortened week and one in which many, many people take the whole week off for their vacations. While, today, price is just barely below the 18-day SMA on the daily chart the intraday situation is at odds.
Overnight the market has ground up and is still currently over the intraday 18-per SMA. The intraday slow stochastic is waffling around and is not yet embedded. The uptrend pattern is very overlapping at this point, but I could see a way where it is not a war injury that won't heal. But this does remain a warning sign. It remains to be seen if the two timeframes can get in synch.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraaderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Price gets down near lower band and currently reverses with an outside bar, up. Whippy & fighting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5VZyyjQZ/
TJ
...outside bar guidelines are in effect. The low of the outside bar should not be taken out in the next two bars or a trap for the bulls will have been set. Also, we need to see where this bar closes. TJ.
Delete...interesting; weak 'spinning-top' candle; requires significant lower close to confirm aa break of the low if that occurs.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5KnM9BJ6/
TJ
..low of reversal bar exceeded lower; 'may have' set a trap for the bulls. TJ.
Delete..now down to 100-per intraday. TJ,
Delete..five prior down (red) fractals exceeded lower. The daily pivot point and/or gap can be next targets. The caution is price is below the lower band. TJ
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: whippy and back up inside band. No closes above or below band. The 'risk range' has been effectively expanded. Have to watch the morning high and morning low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QU1C7mYD/
TJ
Thanks Tj. " The tile "Fighting" was so appropriate.
ReplyDeleteAlso, generally you do a long term chart anyaysis around month end or first week and those reads are so good.
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: and now their world-famous party-trick; better than a 90% retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JkdXKX9Q/
TJ
This is how I have been counting the decline since Monday 15 June, in the S&P 500 Cash Index, FYI (sorry for the incorrect degree in the wave labels - I have never found a good solution for generating Elliott Wave labels in Trading View):
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a9Y46BGI/
Perhaps this count would look better as a Bearish Leading Diagonal? There is significant overlap. 🤔
DeleteI vote for the diagonal. The quality of your charts is always appreciated!
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: this is the count off the low, so far. There is a possibility that this is iv of a larger expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6JNoxP8T/
TJ
That will be an odd looking ed with iv and will lead to all time highs.
DeleteNot Ew but this could be important as Yen carry over trade is the base of liquidity in spx.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/japan-yen-falls-lowest-level-since-1986-dollar-intervention-risk.html
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ