The ES futures today invalidated the expanding diagonal possibility. That leaves a few options. But mostly the levels traders would probably say a new risk area has been defined as on the ES 8-hr (rollover) chart, below.
So, the primary reason for the chart is that the formation just doesn't at this time look like a triangle. The wave labeled a/i/b is probably not deep enough for a symmetrical triangle. Or, if we are making a barrier triangle, then today's up wave is not high enough. That could change, of course.
The down wave is currently labeled as a/i/b because it could be a five-wave contracting diagonal instead of the expanding diagonal. So, that could be a/i or it could be just a three-wave structure as a b wave which might be part of a larger upward diagonal.
But, let me be clear, there is real risk of going over the top again. That could still happen in a triangle or in a diagonal. But we don't have quite enough waves to better visualize those right now.
Today was very, very overlapping and whippy. The down wave was too. So, the count remains undefined until we get more information. I would keep an eye out on that Local Trend Line.
The day after a holiday is often an up day in a relief rally when nothing seriously bad happens over the weekend. And Tuesday is often, not always, a reversal day when Monday is an up day.
We'll see how it goes. Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
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