We should know soon enough if this count of minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) is the correct one or not. Every wave occurred just about as we expected- with the few twists and turns along the way that are characteristic of potential diagonal waves.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 hr - Minute ((c)) = Minute ((a)) |
The orange box is drawn so ((c)) = ((a)), and it fits like a glove at the moment. If the count is correct then, there should be a gap lower in the morning, and the minute ((b)) wave should be exceeded lower in less time than it took to complete the overlapping diagonal ((c)) wave, up. The diagonal has all of the correct measurements, and this one has the nice "throw-over" of the top of the trend line.
The diagonal would invalidate if wave (v) became longer than wave (iii) above 2,655.75.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
P.S. The futures count was invalidated in the overnight. The only count I can find that still follows the rules for all those overlaps is this one.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hr - Only Count that Follows the Rules for the Overlaps |
So, the overlapping waves must have been a leading diagonal first wave, and we are now in a third wave.
thanks joe
ReplyDeleteif we travel too high
or too slow down
this will be an impulse from december low?
In SPX, today's high hit the 50% retracement of 2941-2347.
ReplyDeleteThese are great parameters we can work with. Thanks, Joe!
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe, appreciate the info as always... Your the man!!!
ReplyDeleteQuite amazing to behold this unfold, especially as today is a Bradley turn date, and so many indices are hitting fib and 50day MAs and have retraced to their H&S necklines. Thanks for the perspective Joe.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zJTnw2pS/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/C3UxtvOj/
If you got short today, well played, I was early, but have QQQ 144 puts expiring 8th Feb, good luck to us.
Nice wave counting Joe! I'm thinking this is an X wave in play. With the market just meandering along I think X wave could play out in a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ReplyDeleteYou have been great in the past year. But, After review, in my opinion, there is no way this is a wave 2. There has to be a better count. Too many stocks are showing recovery and very few are rolling over. There is still way too much strength.
I will be so very impressed if you are correct with this count.
Unfortunately every elliottician I follow is expecting a big pull back. Plus, there are a high many investors that are praying for a test of the lows and too many smart guys saying the low is in (at least for now)
Cheers to hoping you are correct.
EWT allows a second wave to retace 100% of a first wave. A break of the ED does not necessarily obviate the possibility of a second wave.
DeleteThanks Joe for the great post as always! If this is wave 2, what would be your wave 3 target and roughly when expected to reach the target?
ReplyDeletejoe whats the alternate you are working on
ReplyDeleteThe revised count has been posted as a P.S.
DeleteThe futures count of an ending diagonal invalidated in the overnight.
ReplyDeleteThe revised count has been posted as a P.S. It is the only one that I can find that still follows the rules for all those overlaps.
DeleteDoes it have a degree violation? At least it looks like wave (i) is similar to wave a in price and time. To me it more looks like wave (i) and (ii) are 3 and 4 and we finished a complete impulse from the low in december.
DeleteNo degree violation wave (i) is less than 78.6% x ((a)) by measurement.
DeleteAnd wave (i) 'can not' be a third wave because it is clearly an overlapping diagonal wave.
Delete(MW) The numbers: The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index in January skidded to a reading of 90.7 in January from 98.3, which is the worst reading since October 2016.
ReplyDeleteEconomists polled by MarketWatch forecast a 97.5 reading.
And as bad as the current conditions component was, a drop of 6 points, the expectations component was worse, down 9 points.
Deletejoe i posted count on ES with only iffy label a e wave in ((4)) triangle.
ReplyDeletei have 2 counts eahc putting us in impulse. spx counts that way. why do we need to be ABC not 12345?
anyway, most conservativel we are in 3rd wave of fifth wave of impulse by my measurements. thanks
DeleteThe 'alternate' for this count would become minute ((a)) = ((i)). There are simply insufficient waves, and no 1.168 extension yet for an impulse. How many times must I write about 1.168 extension? We did not get the 1.618 extension to the down side on the daily chart. That forced me to change the count to minor 1, down, and minor 2, up. If that was good enough rationale on the downside, should it not be good enough rationale on the upside. Please do not ask this question ask until there is an actual 1.618 extension or it will be ignored.
Deletegot it. count abc until 1.618
DeleteUsing the cash SPX 30-minutes, there are now 133 candles on that chart, nicely in the range of 120 - 160 candles. And a parallel shows that a wave (iv) can be held above wave (i) at this point.
ReplyDeleteHere's a cash chart at the moment.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9tm23
TJ
So, applying the 1.618 extension rationale to the above chart, (iii) is currently just a shade more than 0.618 of (i), with (i) being the extended wave. Since we're hitting the top end of the parallel channel, then we're expecting a sharp (iv) at some point to counteract the flat (ii). However, if (iii) were to continue much higher from here, then it would be increasingly likely that (iii) would become a 1.618 extension of (i) before (iv) commences. Would that be a correct assessment?
Delete@R_T: sharp "OR" triangle.
DeleteES now in a parabolic rise. They ALL end the same way...!
ReplyDeleteso did the fall
ReplyDeleteis the stochastic embedded - as it was on way down in December?
ReplyDeleteLooks like runaway computers on the 5 min. chart
ReplyDeleteOr Stockcharts is having trouble.
DeleteI contacted them and they are working on the feed problem.
DeleteThanks Scout
Deleteblue (iii) now longer than blue (1) in time.
ReplyDelete(i) sorry
ReplyDeleteAt this pace SPX will set a new high by Feb 14th. Nothing to see here..Stocks rise forever I guess. ;-) Thank the FED and PPT.
ReplyDeleteSuch is life in a diagonal. Would think this is fine as A of 2 of LD.
ReplyDeletecoming up on the 100 day EMA now..
ReplyDeleteMarc, are you looking at a standard impulse off dec 26, or a c impulse off the b wave?
ReplyDeleteI can count WXY complete of dec 26. with funky x wave having all the overlaps.
ReplyDeleteI can count we need a small 4 which is now and 5 (of 5) to complete full impulse off Dec 26.
These are my alternates.
Refer to Joe on the other count.
his count is primary
ReplyDeleteThanks Marc, yes Joe's is primary for me, but just checking if your alternates coincided with mine and the 4 of 5 is where I was too.
Deleteif w1 is leading diagonal down , w2 is up, w3 has to take out w1 low in less time than w1 took to form, - so its impossible for w2 to be longer than w1 in time after a leading diagonal?
Deleteleading diagonal off high
ReplyDeleteLooks like it, 5 > than 3 now.
DeleteFor it to confirm low has to be taken out by 1/22 10.15 am.
Deleteedt can you look above at another ? about LD
Deleteedt
ReplyDeletehow does that work with low being taken out - whats rule/guideline
low/high of diagonals need to be taken out for their validation in less time than it took to form them.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete