|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Daily - Start of a Diagonal as Alternate|
Why this count? Within any diagonal, waves 2 and 4 simply 'must' be zigzags. The clearest upward zigzag on the chart is the present one. That 'likely' means it is wave 2.
The clear downward diagonal in October would be the minute ((a)) wave, as diagonals are 'often' A waves. The November correction counts best a a double zigzag, and while it 'could be' a second wave, if one fiddles with the count to get it to be a simple zigzag, as it is, it would count better as the minute ((b)) wave.
The December decline would be the minute ((c)) wave of the Minor 1 wave. It has no divergence on the daily Elliott Wave Oscillator. The entire zigzag lower would have formed in a neat channel.
This second wave up, Minor 2, if it did not form a triangle, would be a clear "degree violation" with the minute ((b)) wave. Therefore, it would have to be the larger degree wave.
I am not in favor of calling the diagonal down in October a three-wave sequence. The reason is that it's entire length down was needed to establish the lengths of the sub-waves in the December decline.
Clearly such a forming downward diagonal in no way implies that the entire bear market is over as some suggest. Once again, I do not like changing wave labels, but if overlap occurs, it would likely break rules that can not be broken, and I will always follow the rules.
Have a good start to the day.
P.S. Based on the hourly futures, and all of it's overlaps, this is the only upward count I can get to work.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Hourly - Too Many Overlaps|