Monday, November 18, 2019

Closing in on minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) - - Part 2

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.05 Trillion; prev $23.04
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

The S&P500 and the Dow continue to close in on a minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) Fibonacci measure, as below, noting that with today's higher high there is still divergence versus the MACD.

ES Futures - 5 Hr - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))

There is a way to count a possible top here in the futures, but we would prefer some improved confirmation by prices trading below 3,110 - the prior first wave high. They came close today - within a tick - but ultimately a full-on overlap can not be claimed. In the cash market, then, the S&P500 opened with a slight gap down, the gap was then filled, and prices ground higher, possibly in an ending diagonal, then lower and then retraced a bit. 

If the cash market heads significantly lower tomorrow, we might suggest that a diagonal in the futures might synchronize the two markets with a chart we have shown you previously, as follows:

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Possible First Wave Down

We do not know that price movement will occur this way. Today's fifth wave up, 5 of (v), would be a truncation as shown by the red asterisk (*). We only offer it as a possible way to synchronize the cash and the futures market in a first wave down. But, it does appear the up wave shown as minuet (v) of minute ((c)) can be counted complete this way, and both cash and futures would align. The down wave to today's low was longer in price than any other down wave in the up sequence.

We will note that the daily slow stochastic is still embedded over the 80% level. So, again, patience, calm and flexibility are still needed in this count. Let's take it step-by-step and see how it goes.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

28 comments:

  1. Nice work Trader Joe. I really do appreciate your expertise and have learned an incredible amount. I've been on a pay service for a while (probably all of the big names over the last 3 years) and I really have to shake my head at their analysis now. When they are right it is only because they picked a direction and stuck to it. Of course that always bites them at some point. The concept of degree is something they are not aware of.

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  2. There is downward overlap in futures already. Watch carefully.

    https://invst.ly/oph9m

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Something surreal about gaps open that get filled, followed by price moving higher to take out gap high. Is the idea of an exhaustion gap now being routinely negated by CB liquidity infusion? Through the looking glass...

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  3. Absolutely remarkable! Yet another gap up open.
    Market in a state of full-bore insanity!

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  4. I spy an ending expanding diagonal on ES. With a possible one last wave up to completion?

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  5. Nov 19 10:30 am.......today is KEY DATE for a reversal.
    May be we have seen the high of this B wave.

    Good luck all.

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  6. Whatever it is, price action quite similar to what we say yesterday.
    I am sticking with my thesis that the wave down after a top is truly in will be a run-away train as it will mark the point of exhaustion of CB liquidity keeping price aloft.
    I suspect we have a repeat of yesterday's "sound and fury" underway. No demolition of multiple S/R levels on an impulse down....

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  7. I am also puzzled by why higher beta indices like RUT and NDX remain green while DJIA is diving...smells fishy to me...

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    Replies
    1. Home Depot alone accounts for about -90 dow points due to SSS miss.

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  8. Down leg has invalidated for the potential diagonal.

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    Replies
    1. DOW reached very nearly exactly ((c)) = ((a)); ES short by about 2 pts.

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  9. For the first time in many weeks of closely monitoring this, massive cash dumps into forcing support when testing an open gap higher has FAILED...!

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  10. This is the only top count to ((c)) = ((a)) I can find that makes sense.

    https://invst.ly/opiua

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. And, actually, using broker quotes rather than Investing.com, there was no truncation.

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    2. Wow! Considering the size of this decline on minimal volume, it suggests a market falling under its own bloated torpidity and NOT necessarily due to selling pressure...never seen anything quite like it...

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  11. Second wave up underway. Gap HAS to prove resistance or the CBs will have pulled off another "mriacle"...

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  12. Interesting whipsaw through the gap and back. And more tests are now indicating the gap resistance may hold.

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  13. Yep. If we are done, I was mistaken about the vigor with which an impulse down would develop. If we are in a third down, it looks like slow mo.....

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  14. NDX came down in only three waves.
    The other indices are going nowhere without it. We may not be quite there..

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  15. Need ES to move above 3125 to complete 3,3,5 upward correction possible second wave...new accompnying high in NDX?

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  16. DOW, S&P and QQQ are all near ((c)) = ((a)); just wondering why the measurements are so precise in all three indexes. Here's the Q's, too.

    https://invst.ly/opm6h

    TJ

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  17. Cash looks like it might be starting to form a LD off the top. Finishing 2 now. Might allow for other indices to sync up before a sizable leg three down late in the week or Mon.

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  18. SPX close was weak enough for a 3 day island reversal formation to be in play. Let's see if we gap down tomorrow.

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  19. A new post has been started for the next day.

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