ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
The S&P500 and the Dow continue to close in on a minute ((c)) = minute ((a)) Fibonacci measure, as below, noting that with today's higher high there is still divergence versus the MACD.
|ES Futures - 5 Hr - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))|
There is a way to count a possible top here in the futures, but we would prefer some improved confirmation by prices trading below 3,110 - the prior first wave high. They came close today - within a tick - but ultimately a full-on overlap can not be claimed. In the cash market, then, the S&P500 opened with a slight gap down, the gap was then filled, and prices ground higher, possibly in an ending diagonal, then lower and then retraced a bit.
If the cash market heads significantly lower tomorrow, we might suggest that a diagonal in the futures might synchronize the two markets with a chart we have shown you previously, as follows:
|ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Possible First Wave Down|
We do not know that price movement will occur this way. Today's fifth wave up, 5 of (v), would be a truncation as shown by the red asterisk (*). We only offer it as a possible way to synchronize the cash and the futures market in a first wave down. But, it does appear the up wave shown as minuet (v) of minute ((c)) can be counted complete this way, and both cash and futures would align. The down wave to today's low was longer in price than any other down wave in the up sequence.
We will note that the daily slow stochastic is still embedded over the 80% level. So, again, patience, calm and flexibility are still needed in this count. Let's take it step-by-step and see how it goes.
Have a good start to the evening.