|SP500 2-Hour Chart - Fourth Wave Critical Conditions Met|
It can also be clearly seen that the lower trend channel line is being attacked to the down side, and we do not know that downward movement is over. (It's "possible" we are still getting an ending diagonal c wave lower or a more complex correction lower). At present, minuet (iv) has traveled back to the area of sub-minuet wave iv, but has not closed the upward gap there, and the wave currently has a 23.6% downward retrace on wave (iii).
At this point, the only unsatisfactory aspects of a fourth wave are the amount of time taken and the "look" of wave (iv) compared to wave (ii). They look very much the same. Therefore, while we do not like to use alternates often, we must suggest that the down wave could still only be the a:3 wave of a larger fourth wave flat or triangle, so we have posted a flag regarding that on the chart.
Alternate or not, we are glad we began looking for a correction just as others began their "how high the S&P can go" postings.
Because fourth waves may not overlap wave (i), that will have to be the invalidation point for this fourth wave. Sometimes - high up in the wave sequence - fourth waves can get fairly deep.
Speaking of invalidation, if the market decides to pull a "fast one" and get out of hand to the down side, within the live chat room I did post a clear alternate count for a possible top. But, there are some things I don't like about it, yet: primarily the proportionality. And so I will leave it in the chat room for now and only show it should this fourth wave not work out as expected.
Why did I develop an alternate already? Because I am always looking for the count that would tell me where the current count is not correct. Keeps one on their toes.
Have a great evening!