Nothing wrong with the current count. Today in the ES/SPY was a halting, grinding, slow day upward to the new high. There could easily be more, within limits. Here is the current count, simply continued from the previous chart on the SPY 15-minute timeframe. We'll be switching to the SPY 30-minute shortly.
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| SPY Cash - 15 min - Count |
There is no clear indication that wave (iii), up, is over, yet. It does not have to be. For a contracting diagonal it must remain shorter than wave (i). So far, it has been. If a fourth wave (iv) occurs it should remain shorter than wave (ii), to continue a contracting diagonal.
Retraces can definitely occur, but not below the low of wave (ii) without repercussions for the count as is shown on the chart.
Have an excellent start of the evening, and an excellent rest of the possible vacation week if you are taking it off.
TraderJoe
Tj, Here is a chart and my question that correction looks.like 5 wave but then the next move is higher. So right 8 am the down move looks.like 5 waves but then we have a wave that goes higher https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ed8g7GZM/
ReplyDeleteTry not to make too many decisions based on 1-min, and overnight trading hours - especially in front of major market reports like the NonFarm Payrolls. Go to longer time-frames (30-min and longer). Use patience as a market weapon. Be as well-capitalized as possible. Not all 'five-down' start something. Sometimes the five-down is the 'c' wave of a fourth wave, the 'c' wave of an (e) wave, the 'c' wave of a (b) wave, the 'c' wave of an (x) wave, or the 'c' wave of a (ii) wave. And see below. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr: here's the valid triangle option I spoke of earlier. I thought that prior fourth wave would've been way too short in 'time'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PBdNWCiQ/
This is not necessarily great news for the bulls because when the up wave ends, the triangle 'typically' indicates the last wave in the direction of the trend.
TJ
Looks like the 3rd wave is in danger of being exceeded by the 5th.
DeleteI see what you're thinking. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: working on six closes outside of the upper band; odds about 2 - 3% of the next close being outside the band (not impossible, just very low odds).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jIlv4gyU/
TJ
ES 30-min: technically a close inside the band by fractions. Resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteFutures really acted up overnight overlap..unless its a.triangle to avoid overlap
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ