Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Snoozy Clue (3)

The chart news today is interesting on the ES daily chart, below. First of all, as shown by the Fibonacci ruler on the right, we have a longer wave down than the 7 JUL down wave. This 'should' mean - by the rules - that we are out of what appeared to be a diagonal formation at the high.


Second, while the lower today today moves the swing-line indicator temporarily lower, price is still above the 18-day SMA, although it did come quite close to tagging it before rebounding, Meanwhile the daily slow stochastic (regular calculation) continues to have lost its embedded status.

From a news perspective, it was filled with money-laundering bank fines, tariff news, and quasi-news about firing the Fed chair, all of which made for a whippy market.

From an EW perspective, all we have in the ES is one price segment down (like a small i or a), and then a large Flat wave following it that did make greater than a 50% retracement on the down wave. We'll see if this is enough to get prices moving such that they close below the 18-day SMA or not. It remains to be seen.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

3 comments:

  1. ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 Hr - for those of you that like Ichimoku analysis, so far, price has found support at the red cloud. Further, the Tenkan-sen (T-Line) green, is moving higher. It is the shorter term moving average.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OPgTN6w3/

    Price needs to get down through the cloud to start something interesting.
    TJ

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  2. ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 Hr - price is back to the green faster moving average, or the Tenken-sen (T-Line). The EW significance is downward overlap.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/niakz8fl/

    TJ

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  3. Does anyone have a legal count of SPY from the April 7th low? I just can't seem to count it.

    ReplyDelete