The chart news today is interesting on the ES daily chart, below. First of all, as shown by the Fibonacci ruler on the right, we have a longer wave down than the 7 JUL down wave. This 'should' mean - by the rules - that we are out of what appeared to be a diagonal formation at the high.
Second, while the lower today today moves the swing-line indicator temporarily lower, price is still above the 18-day SMA, although it did come quite close to tagging it before rebounding, Meanwhile the daily slow stochastic (regular calculation) continues to have lost its embedded status.
From a news perspective, it was filled with money-laundering bank fines, tariff news, and quasi-news about firing the Fed chair, all of which made for a whippy market.
From an EW perspective, all we have in the ES is one price segment down (like a small i or a), and then a large Flat wave following it that did make greater than a 50% retracement on the down wave. We'll see if this is enough to get prices moving such that they close below the 18-day SMA or not. It remains to be seen.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 Hr - for those of you that like Ichimoku analysis, so far, price has found support at the red cloud. Further, the Tenkan-sen (T-Line) green, is moving higher. It is the shorter term moving average.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OPgTN6w3/
Price needs to get down through the cloud to start something interesting.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 Hr - price is back to the green faster moving average, or the Tenken-sen (T-Line). The EW significance is downward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/niakz8fl/
TJ
Does anyone have a legal count of SPY from the April 7th low? I just can't seem to count it.
ReplyDeleteYes, the original count off the low still works in SPY cash as a leading diagonal for the extended minute-i, ⓘ. Then minute-iii, and minute-v are currently shorter. The five minute waves comprise Minor A.
DeleteWithin the initial leading diagonal (v) < (iii) < (i), (iv) overlap (i) and (iv) is shorter than (ii). The upward lengths are still correct.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WyNXP5wk/
The question is whether we have begun the Minor B down, yet, or not. But all of this is a legal count. The big "gap" can be found in the third wave. And the triangle for the fourth wave looks a bit better in futures, but still the minute-iv, circle-iv, downward overlap the minute-iii, circle-iii, in cash, as well, to form a valid corrective sequence.
TJ
Thank you TJ. You're not concerned with the size disparity between circle II and IV? Also how does it channel?
DeleteWelcome. Yes, initially I was until I was able to count out the triangle in the futures. But, first one follows-the-rules. The rules say there are five non-overlapping waves, so it's an impulse. Then, one follows the guidelines as best as possible. The triangle guideline is exactly what the EWP says "wastes time and moves prices sideways". Yes, it would have been nice if the whole wave followed the channeling 'guideline' which it doesn't. But it is a wave in a corrective sequence (it is the 'A', of A,B,C up), so some tip-off that it is corrective should be expected. Failure to channel may be that tip-off. Lastly, the impulse for A, means the eventual C wave up 'might be' an ending diagonal in itself. Good questions.
DeleteRegards,
TJ
Got it. Thanks, as always.
DeleteWe've got to be close to the end of this minor A wave with all these highly speculative names getting pumped up.
ReplyDelete..and see below. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: IFF the "fire-Powell" down wave actually counts as this impulse instead of a "b" wave, then we could have three-waves down. The reason for mentioning it is that we have already reached the 90% up level.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LfFwzhlU/
It's possible Minor B has started and is making a flat or expanded flat to start with.
TJ
..and SPY now has a new higher high; so there must be a legal way to represent that .. as in the higher (b) wave of a flat or expanded flat. TJ.
DeleteSo, it's admittedly speculative, but the idea would be something like this. This might 'start' a series of flats, or a running triangle. Very difficult to tell until we see the waves. But, today's up wave is exceeding difficult to count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7nISJpbQ/
TJ
Sure is!!!
DeleteES 30-min: so, using the intraday wave-counting-screen, the best I can do at this time is that today's up wave measures less than equality. So, it is 'tentatively' labeled (a), (b),(c); the next day's could change that and turn it into (i) -> (v) of a larger b wave. But so far, it hasn't.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BheMyEwq/
Also, the "running (b) wave" is less than 38% at it's deepest, and that is not 'typically' (ii) wave territory. So, we shall see. Tonight there are insufficient downward overlaps to claim the wave has ended.
TJ