In the SPY cash index, IF today's high holds I am only pointing out that there would then be a 138.2% Fibonacci relationship with the prior three down waves. I am doing my best to count by legitimate 'fives' and you can see where I've done that explicitly on the chart.
But whether because of overlap or because the time relationships would otherwise seem too bizarre, there is a point where they don't work well. So, this structure could be (a)-3, down, and (b)-3, up. Today's tiny higher high in cash, still not over that 633.94 level, is on a whopping MACD divergence.
There are diagonals galore in these counts. You can see two of them in the space of a week in the above chart. But, if you want to see the count proceed by fives to the extent possible, then as far as I can tell, that is what's involved.
The above count does - if it holds - mean that the Minor A wave may have finished on 15 July, and we could be into the Minor B wave now.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
Is my imagination or wave counting has really become hard
ReplyDeleteI guess more people have become aware of basic ew so algo are.making sure to screw them
I have described it similarly to you, but that "diagonals are appearing more often because those are the hardest to interpret". TJ.
DeleteI wonder if its a temporary thing or permanent fixture going forward
DeleteSentiment wise …I think BBC opened news this morning with “markets rally “ news
ReplyDeleteES High did not hold. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash); now counting this additional bit as 5-waves up, based on MACD and lengths. Started with a leading expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oA20eTHs/
TJ
Does this trend line matter https://www.tradingview.com/x/twA4yDK9/
ReplyDeleteSPY on the close exceeded 633.94; therefore count reconfiguration needed. TJ.
ReplyDeleteBy way of reconfiguration, the following is the first suggestion and least disruptive. As far as I can tell it does not involve degree violations. That is because the Minor A wave is seen as completed. Note there is a Fibonacci confluence at the top of the page with c = a, and (b)-3 = 1.618 x (a)-3 down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BVJH3hgl/
Again, I have shown the effort to "count-by-fives" where possible. And, in particular, in the latest "c" wave, up, it is possible we are getting the "extended fifth wave" type of structure - which we haven't seen in a while.
Further, note that today for the first time in more than six months the $VIX tagged its lower daily Bollinger Band. And, certainly the ES tagged its upper daily Bollinger Band as well. The counting is exceptionally difficult.
Regards,
TJ
TJ, wouldn't the recount have to begin at the April 7 low in SPY?
ReplyDelete@Roy .. in a full recount, yes. But this still works in SPY until it doesn't. And if it needs to be further reconfigured, I'll do that later today or tomorrow, but I have looked at that preliminarily, and that gets very sticky, too. In the chart below, there are three-waves up in a wedge since the (a)-3 low. In other words, in this case, where Minor A is done, then SPY held below that 633.94 for the A wave. It did not invalidate in this scenario. The A wave is done. There are other ways of seeing it not done. But I will cover that if/when needed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mvm005es/
TJ
The b wave of the proposed flat correction appears to be twice as large as the a wave. I recall reading somewhere that a guideline for an expanded flat count is that it should be abandoned at over 200% of the a wave. I do realize guidelines are not rules.
DeleteI'm showing a measurement in the above chart of 162%. Are we talking about the same thing?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mvm005es/
TJ.
It is indeed under 200. Duration made it appear longer in distance as well. Thx!
DeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals, it looks like the overlap warning would be at the high of the "a" wave (purple).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PMBHoMue/
TJ
ES 30-min: bounces from three-touch trend line.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7Zw2WskD/
TJ
..down wave is longer in price than any other down wave in the potential 'c' wave. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: it looks like someone has "decided to play rough, again" with a marginal higher high and overlapping waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0R1BQSVW/
Note the five-wave expanding diagonal Ⓐ wave at the beginning of the pattern.
TJ
Lol! Indeed!
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: watch that blue wave ii; there 'is' a way this can be done, but I'll still be patient. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: here a chart update with the blue count and the red alternate count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1TLRSYch/
TJ
As far as I can tell, down wave is longer in price and can count as an expanding diagonal. Preliminary indication is that red count (the shorter diagonal) has won.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZSCcJ9LW/
If one gonna count by five upward, then one is gonna count by five downward when the lengths are correct.
TJ
Overthrow failure very sneaky. Tricksy Mr. Market.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ