Today was a Doji, including a higher daily high, and day two of embedding - with a third day where both the %K and %D of the Daily Slow Stochastic (DSS) over 80 is required to fully embed. That means tomorrow is the day most at risk of not embedding - and that certainly does not mean it can't embed.
Make of it what you will. The daily close bias is still up as price closed over the 18-day SMA. The daily swing line is still up. While price resistance might be the upper daily Bollinger Band, initial support might come in around the combination of the 18-day SMA and the 100-day SMA.
The wave count is stretched and strained. Yet, when price started down today, it fizzled pretty darn quickly. Intraday we were trying to count an expanded flat, up, after a diagonal down. And within the potential 'C' wave up the fourth wave just missed overlapping the first by cash close. If it should fail in the overnight, perhaps the Flat up wave counts as w-x-y. Or perhaps a larger diagonal is forming. We'll see.
Might be worth it to assess the overnight price action and see what - if any overlaps develop. Right now, the price movement was very 'grindy' both down & up.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
thanks joe
ReplyDeleteIt seems the second derivative of inflation is insufficient motive for a FED rate cut in the eyes of the current administration, lol! Why else would the BLS decide lies about job growth are less important and revise the number downward by a million jobs for the April 2023 to March 2024 period? Will the FED accept the bait? Dis-inflation is not deflation. The cost of living remains high and getting higher. Interesting times!
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/GpEOmZTYA4A?si=fnR1sgZ7viFXy-iM
DeleteOvernight, waves four and five held on in futures & cash; now just exceeding 62%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xHC24zbT/
TJ
..now @ 78.6% and ES futures with a new high, too. TJ.
DeleteYea, the revisions due out at 10 AM (~10 min) are not on the economic calendars.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision-release-date.htm
TJ
BLS Payrolls revision will be released at 10am, FOMC Meeting minutes released at 2pm. Any guesses how many jobs went poof? Goldman and others peg it at 600k to 900k.
ReplyDeleteTotal Non-farm = -306, Total private = -358 according to BLS page. TJ
DeleteThe report has been delayed per Bloomberg. The page you cited is dated 8/23/2023 at the bottom of the report.
DeleteOK. Thanks, I clicked on their release link. It may have been an incorrect link. TJ.
DeleteMore "Ramp & "Camp" Curious about new count with new ATH.
ReplyDeleteCuriouser & couriouser .. DJI has a new high. SPY is -0.01, SPX not yet. NDX not close yet. TJ.
DeleteHere is SPY 'at this time'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FNbZyEQE/
Can it go over? If it wants. TJ.
SPY now into gap fill area. Not filled yet. TJ.
DeleteSPY 10-min: high-to-open gap filled, not close-to-open gap, yet. TJ.
DeleteInitially delayed, the BLS Payrolls revisions are out: -819K total private jobs. Biggest industry revision was Professional & Business Services, 2nd was Leisure & Hospitality.
ReplyDeleteNDX 10-min: touches 90%; SPY, SPX DJI over the high. Possible 'b' wave? or diagonal in some indexes. TJ.
ReplyDeleteNDX link:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l5BrEAhZ/
TJ
SPY 10-min: here is the labeling so far. There was a micro-second gap closure. And possible contracting diagonal invalidation at/below the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P5ENLZrX/
TJ
SPY 10-min: gap more clearly closed. Contracting diagonal invalidated.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KDly29pM/
TJ
Was there a triangle breakout at the payroll news
ReplyDeleteno, the count is above. There is no proportional triangle in the mix unless it's like a 1 min 'b' wave triangle or something. TJ.
DeleteOk thanks
Delete..also, see below. TJ.
DeleteSPY 10-min: although measurements show that if things 'really' get rolling to the down side, this is a 'possible' top count - with an expanding diagonal. It might explain that 'uber long' fourth wave last night.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XwPLwfcL/
TJ
SPY 1-hr: again, just noting in this count the b/ii wave's length has now been exceeded lower. So, that suggests drawing the parallel and see how it holds up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wg4yqsR4/
TJ
Reminder: FOMC minutes schedule at the top of the hour. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 10-min: triang-ghoul sideways or diagona-gruel downward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Cj57WKde/
TJ
there is clear upward overlap already, so that can be one clue; more towards a triangle at this point.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7UM2yE93/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ