Turn-about is fair play. After yesterday's outside-day-down, the ES futures made an outside day up after the cash close today. The hourly cash close-only chart is interesting, as it has the requisite 120 candles on it, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is now above the zero line.
Are we making a minute fourth wave near the prior lower degree fourth wave? It may not be complete yet, but this is either where things work out or they don't in terms of an impulse according to The Eight-Fold-Path Method.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, the terminus of circle ii would be the "stop downward count" line, correct?
ReplyDeleteI would think 5423ish.
DeleteAt that point a large expanding diagonal to the downside would still be in play.
DeleteRoy C. - with respect - the larger expanding diagonal is 'possible' but with very low odds because the internal second wave would be a pretty clear flat which is not supposed to occur in an expanding diagonal. The only 'out' would be that the 'b' wave of such a 'flat' did not make a new low. Therefore, one could 'try' to claim that it is a zigzag with a 99+% 'b' wave. But that is why it would be very low odds. Again, I didn't say it was 'impossible' because the market didn't. But very low odds. So, if wave ⓘ gets overlapped, my impetus is to put a wave counting stop there, and rethink what might be occurring. For example, maybe just (a), (b), (c) down of a contracting diagonal.
DeleteTJ
TJ, I wouldn't disagree with anything you said. Sometimes probabilities are all we've got. The only certainly is that it's going to be fun to see how it all plays out. Initially I was just looking for a high probability wave counting stop.
DeletePrice clearly consolidating in this range. Looks like we're heading higher.
ReplyDeleteThis is a weekly chart of nvda. The present correction stopped at 38 retrace..this.chart gives me a pause abt selloff in sp/nq..until nvda decides...https://www.tradingview.com/x/qqhiOGYz/
ReplyDeleteThis rally is really long in the tooth. GS Goldman topping.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/qvmrbbZW/Screenshot-1.jpg
SPY 5-min: a current wedge and some measurements:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9IUcQPcQ/
Note the divergences on the EWO. I can be fooled. They've done it before - especially on Friday. But, worth a look.
TJ
They busted the contracting diagonal, but not an expanding one in the futures.
DeleteTJ
I got a two different channel ideas. We will see what the market wants to be shortly.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/fg3PzPy
SPY 5-min: here is the expanding diagonal, both in cash and futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0iUfJv2T/
TJ
down move from end diagonal almost bigger then 2nd wave down of expanding diagonal, this is signifiant, next wave up would be very very large, and we know if we are in wave 5 now expect large wave down
Delete8/15 12:00 can be wave 1 and a very long 2 threoug 8/7. no subwaves larger than that wave 1 in the propopsed second wave. this is my alternate
ReplyDeleteand fifth wave didnt make new low on nq with similar count
Deleteand expanding diagonal upward comleted from approx 8:30 am today
DeleteI see this expanding diag in cash.https://www.tradingview.com/x/YXXIfuzr/
Delete@marc .. we don't 'know' it is completed yet. It is at this moment 'qualified' b/c it made the longer wave up. Sometimes those get more aggressive; sometimes not.
DeleteJoe, my point is it could be leading and we have seen a sufficient correction before next wave.
Delete@marc .. probabilities are 'usually' on the side of 3-3-3-3-3 expanding diagonals being 'ending'. It is much more rare that they are leading - not impossible, but just much more rare. Also, see the overall hourly count, below. We are not out of the up channel yet (like for a true third wave). TJ.
DeleteThanks Joe, my motivation for looking at these alternates is to be prepared in advance. It makes sense to me that the expansion should only occur as i of 3 and possibly I of 3 of III so I'm looking if that count exists
DeleteSPY 5-min: now downward overlap on the third wave. If a true diagonal, when done, the low should be taken out in less time than it took to form.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/leLy3Lwr/
TJ
ES 5-min: here is the uber-clean expanding diagonal in futures. Note that it started before the cash market open. I noted that and just had a question of whether the contracting version in cash would work out or the expanding one from futures. Yes, although the diagonal has qualified by wave five being longer than wave three, the diagonal likely can not be said to be over until waves four & two are taken out lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15zs53
TJ
ES 60-min: as far as I can tell, this pattern in the hourly futures does not break any rules or have any degree violations. It is complex and ugly in the minutia, and simple in the overall. Just an a,b,c and it is largely a question of when it can be confirmed to be over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GXtEVOfN/
TJ
Nice alternation between a and c.
DeleteTJ if that is a EDT for waves 4 and 5 of C it should be done correct? just wondering. Thanks
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/PJRR1Xs2/Screenshot-4.jpg
Since I post about GS Goldman Sachs frequently. Here is today's chart. Zerohedge posted a article by the GS trading desk setting up for a big decline. Hmmmm Thanks TJ
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/nhRfhkg4/Screenshot-2.jpg
The Dow 1 minute
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QxvpZGx1/Screenshot-3.jpg
Very much so, TJ thanks
DeleteHopefully remaining over-head gap-fill comes on Monday with another ODD
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your week-end all!
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ