What applies to the downside, applies to the upside. Right now, we appear to have three-waves up in the SPY cash hourly chart, as below.
The RSI indicator is getting very over-bought. The futures are still up in the evening. The daily closing bias is up. The swing-line is up.
But the Elliott Wave count says we are making either a,b,c or i,ii,iii. It is very difficult to parse which the way things were left. So, The Principle of Equivalence applies again. The actual degree would be at minuet level (a), (b), (c), etc. but I did not put all the brackets in, so the chart is clearer. We'll clean that up on the weekend if needed.
At some point price should try to test the lower smaller channel boundary. From there it will either succeed to hold, or it will fail.
Price is currently above the 62% retrace, and it is nearing the 78% retrace. It is also approaching that prior 01 Aug high bar, which we noted as a daily fractal. There is nothing bearish on the chart yet as the trend has higher highs and higher lows over the 18-day SMA. But the daily slow stochastic is over-bought only (not embedded). And a question one could ask is whether today's cash movement might become part of an island reversal.
The next couple of days should answer quite a few questions. Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
thnks joe . can circle 3 and circle 4 instead be nested 1/2 of circle 3 implying a few more highs in the up wave?
ReplyDelete2nd wave triangles as the sole structure violates EW rules...
DeleteShould be an interesting few weeks. The monkeypox stories are just now starting to gain traction.
ReplyDeleteHello Tj,
ReplyDeleteGold has gone up.
Is there any change in count on this?
Hi. I have answered your question several times, and I will do so again today. But this is the last time, unless/until you begin to do some work on this site and show you are learning something. I am 'not' here to just answer everyone's fav market question. What galls me about your question is, "Ooooooooh! Price went up." Like a 10-year-old. No analysis at all. "Just dump the question on TJ". So, now here is your answer.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/1625eo
The short answer is, "No, nothing has changed." You are still in the Fourth Wave Conundrum. When last I wrote, the answer was "Flat or Triangle". It still is.
A few facts that you 'should' have put in your question. GOLD is currently at the 1.382 external Fibo retrace from the high. This is 'often' where "B" waves stop, or at 1.5 - 1.618, next. So, the 'up' wave that 'looks like' a diagonal might only be the Minor B wave of a larger flat. Now, notice the 'time' of the "B" wave. It is still less in time than wave (3), up. So, there is no degree violation calling it a Minor wave yet.
Next, the up wave is not as long as (1), with an extended (3). So, when it occurs (5) should equal (1). It doesn't.
Next, there currently isn't - and there wasn't then - alternation between (2) and (4). There 'should be'. But there isn't. So, GOLD 'should' form a Flat or Triangle. Next, note the 0 - (2) trend line has not been broken yet.
So, is there a risk this is wave (5)? Yes, of course there is. The EWO does shown one location that can be a fourth wave. But, (4) is still shorter in time than (2), and shorter in time than (3).
So, while the answer can't be 'definitive' the only thing one can do is say if the market 'extends up' out of the wedge over 1.618, then it is likely in wave (5). But if the wedge breaks to the downside then a return to wave A and/or slightly beyond is likely.
Given, the information on this blog, and the number of times I have answered your repetitive questions, this is the type of work your should be doing by now, and you should be posting it here. If not, then I just consider you 'mooching for free'. What's it gonna be? Ball's in your court.
TJ
My Apologies Tj
DeleteAnd thank you very much for the detailing.
Will work harder and post more!
ES/SPY CFD 1-hr: Price did come down to a larger parallel in the overnight. Ball's in the market's court. The Fourth Wave Conundrum at every degree of trend.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1625zh
TJ
Here's a 5-min update as of 2 pm ET. There are not 120 candles, so using 13-ema, not 34, and using RSI, not EWO.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/16293z
TJ
Here is cash as of 3:35 pm ET.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ErXKaJmX/
mmm..hmmm..
TJ
Triangle hypothesis disproved lower. mmm.hmmm...
DeleteSPY 5-min: there has been one level of overlap downward. Maybe a larger upward diagonal will form Fri - Mon; maybe not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NUP5j2r9/
TJ
SPY 5-min: this is 'why' the expanding diagonal can be the opposite of a triangle if the market wants to do it - because of all the three-wave sequences.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/550QdfLF/
And this is why we don't 'pout' when known alternates happen. We don't control the market. The Smart Money controls us.
TJ
ES 1-hr: IF a larger hourly diagonal is in play on the ES, it might look like this one.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oG519pvq/
TJ
Hey TJ,
ReplyDeleteHere's my Gold long term wave count and short term count. I noticed that my short term chart is a little different with the prices at the wave 4 triangle. I know mine is right because I bought Gold and used the wave "c" as my stop. The "e" wave came within 3-4 points of the c wave of the triangle. But it held and rallied.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/0ilc9yeG-Gold-Potential-Long-Term-Wave-
Count/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/0dR6xU0d-Gold-Potential-wave-count/
Hi Ronb - thanks for sharing but the Long-Term count is likely not correct because what you are claiming is a triangle 'C' wave is not even 32% of its A wave, as this link shows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VjhHPQHD/
Triangles are based on balance & symmetry, and you won't find a true triangle where the C wave is less than 62% of the A wave. Yes, I know you made some money. That is not what Elliott Wave patterns are based on.
P.S. In the future, please put any links on one separate line like the second one, as the first one does not work for me for some reason. Thanks.
TJ
Thanks for the help. Pesky percentages! :)
DeleteHere's the short term count. When you look at my triangle you'll notice the prices are different than you chart. Again for some reason I noticed Investing.com's pricing on Gold is wrong compared to all of the other charts. On their charts it shows my "e" wave is deeper than the "c" wave but it's not. Tradingview.com and ThinkorSwim are right.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/0dR6xU0d-Gold-Potential-wave-count/
P.S. Here is a long-term wave-count I published before. So far, there is nothing wrong with it in terms of wavelengths, time or overlaps. It asks the question, "who says the 2011 peak was all there was to a third wave?"
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5MvODSae/
If the answer to that question is, "EWI" take that with a large grain of salt. They have gotten most of their counts wrong, and they have even broken their own rules - published in the book. I have written them repeatedly about the rules broken to no avail. That is why I learned to count on my own. I realize most counts will be a clone of EWI, and I stay away from that - and just follow the rules.
TJ
I already noticed that my 2 wave is too short to correct my wave 1. Dang percentages. So I'll have to go back to the drawing boards on that count.
DeleteTJ,
DeleteI dug out Prechters book and couldn't find any references to the minimum percentages of the waves in a triangle or relationships between waves in the Triangle section in his book. I remember the ideal triangle would be that each wave would be 62% smaller than the previous wave. Based on your earlier post you mentioned based on my triangle the C wave was only 32% of the A wave. I didn't realize that there was also a relationship between the A wave and C wave in a triangle? What is the minimum percent for that relationship? 50% or 62% and is there any other waves that you have to look at? Like B and D? Or is it just the A and C wave.
Is there another book or resource that has these kind of details? I hate to bother you every time I need to figure something out.
But I really appreciate your willingness to keep this blog going. I work full time but I read it almost every day to learn.
Thanks,
Example 3-12 from The Ellliott Wave Theorist, current on-line addition at EWI.
Delete"Starting with wave X in the 1977 upward correction shown in Figure 3-12, the swings are almost exactly 55 points (wave X), 34 points (waves a through c), 21 points (wave d), 13 points (wave a of e) and 8 points (wave b of e), the Fibonacci sequence itself. The total net gain from beginning to end is 13 points, and the apex of the triangle lies on the level of the correction’s beginning at 930, which is also the level of the peak of the subsequent reflex rally in June. Whether one takes the actual number of points in the waves as coincidence or part of the design, one can be certain that the precision manifest in the constant .618 ratio between each successive wave is not coincidence. Chapters 4 and 7 will elaborate substantially on the appearance of the Fibonacci ratio in market patterns." There are several other triangle examples in the book, all with 0.618 or better ratios between the legs.
TJ
Looks like a B wave to the gap above on spx cash. 90% retrace then C to 5k or 4800 depending on the fib targets. I know it's Elliott wave 101, but it seems more logical now than anything else.
ReplyDeleteTj,
ReplyDeleteVix chart shows 66 as top 2 weeks ago
It seems like a panic top similar to covid crash and panic in vix.
If the same analogy is true, then does that also means long term bottom on S&P @ 5120?
Can we correlate vix highs and lows for medium term / long term direction of markets?
i published the findings earlier in the week. this is biggest spike and crash in vix on record.
DeleteGetting ready for another fat pitch next week.
ReplyDeleteTJ, a big fan here. I noticed some Elliot Wavers easily spot an ABC correction. For example, while TJ was still looking for a circle v last August 8, another one said on August 8 mid-day, SPX just finished ii on August 7 and it's impulsing up to iii. Trade wise I feel it's important to quickly identify what happened at end-of-day on August 7th with invalidation levels of course. I'm not sure how but the thing that helped me from staying short was my bias towards the 1968 pattern for an early August low.
ReplyDeleteThanks for being a fan. Please review the post of Aug 8th at this link.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/08/odu-and-cash.html
It says quite clearly below the chart that in terms of The Eight Fold Path Method this is either where things work out or they don't for an impulse downward. In this case they didn't and so the relabel is a simple a,b,c.
In other words, you'd have to show me the "other analyst's" consistently correct method of calling Elliott Waves, and not just a "good guess". I have posted mine, completely transparently. I know its strengths and its short-comings.
In terms of the other issue of 'when you are short', or what 'helped you from staying short', I have no control over that as I make no recommendations in either direction.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ