With apologies to the song, I can't help but wonder if we aren't making a triangle at the highs in one of several forms. This one might be a 4-hour expanding triangle on the ES futures, as this morning we just clicked over the highs and then fell off.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Expanding Triangle? |
Such a pattern might be part of a larger ⓑ-3 wave to make a larger flat. Or, it might end an upward wave. We'll have to watch closely.
This might take a whole lotta time as these are four-hour bars. Patience and flexibility needed.
Have an excellent start to the morning and the week,
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: three closes below the band, odds drop to 2 - 4% of next close being outside the band. Not impossible, just lower odds. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: now after four closes below the band (probability 1-2%) there is a close inside the band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iZ37lgdT/
TJ
..this resets the number of consecutive closes below the band. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: now below the prior down (red) fractal low, putting a 78.6% retrace, S1 and 'possibly' the day's low in play. Careful, patient, and flexible.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0nDgY5Vj/
TJ
ES 30-min: just 5-3-5 down, so far. And if it gets over ES 5,640; it is highly unlikely to nest.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x6SP98Yl/
TJ
Gold B
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/vyf6jpv
More "Camp & Ramp". I thought a new hight would complete wave up. My count is busted. Dicey market.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: intraday wave counting screen - yesterday's low just exceeded lower. Maybe draw a downward parallel. Will show chart when it catches up. TJ.
ReplyDeleteRedbook Index at 5% vs 4.9%. TJ.
DeleteHere's the break of the lower low. Several downward (red) fractals were broken, as was a 'weak' parallel upward. Now try drawing the downward parallel.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cwe3QTC7/
TJ
U.S. Housing Prices -0.1% MoM; Case-Schiller +6.5% YoY;
DeleteScheduled at the top of the next hour Consumer Confidence & Richmond FED Index.
DeleteTJ
BTC possible ED?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CybxZDU
I have a little lower channel on ES and think we are still working on a 4.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/9MyWFKe
ES 30-min: now a touch on the daily S1 pivot. Length becomes very, very important here as to the structure of the wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yd2KCteq/
TJ
RIchmond FED - 19 from -14, and Consumer Confidence is 103.5 up from 101.9 prior. TJ
DeleteES 30-min; downward parallel busted; 'possible' X wave? .. requires being lose and flexible here. TJ.
DeleteExpanded triangle? To break upward post nvda earnings?
ReplyDeleteFeels like a C wave of 2 here. Impulse 1 down finished?
ReplyDeleteI just don't see anything truly impulsive, yet. Right now cash has "hash in a channel"; the prior low red fractal has not even been taken out yet. 'Maybe' there's a new a-b-c there with an overnight triangle, considering what futures look like, too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wlilrvKD/
That 'might' start a diagonal or end a triangle wave, so just be flexible and patient and try not to rush counts approaching a holiday weekend.
TJ
We are trading inside the Fed announcement range from last week....
ReplyDeleteAnd may remain inside until Nvidia earnings
DeleteES 30-min: here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots. Yes, if you draw trend lines you might see a wedge here. Otherwise, the bands are very narrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RM6t7GIp/
Have a good start to a 'low news day' until after the close with Nvidia's earnings.
TJ
ES 30-min: price temporarily failed at 18-per SMA, and has already taken out first two (now) down - red - fractals lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u14qAcTV/
TJ
ES 30-min: third fractal back now taken out lower. TJ.
Delete..and fourth fractal back exceeded lower. TJ.
Deletehere's that fractal break ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MprGC4K0/
TJ
now below prior low Level L#1. TJ
Deletehere is that break
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/owrTU2T2/
TJ
ES 30-min: second close below the lower intraday band. Odds drop to 3 - 6%. TJ.
DeleteES sitting on lower channel drawn like this.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/9MyWFKe
? huh ?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Ocozxed
Delete..much better, tkx. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: third consecutive close under the lower band dropping the odds of closing outside the lower band again to 2 - 5%. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: now exceeded Level L#2 low from 23 Aug, and now have 18-cross back under 100-per SMA.
ReplyDelete..also, although chart is behind the usual 10-min or so, Daily Pivot S2 has now been tapped.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BUD3caSB/
TJ
..fourth consecutive close below the lower band now drops the odds to 1 - 4% that next close will be below the band. Not impossible - just lower odds. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: on this bar, the intraday slow stochastic is embedded. While not as potent as it is on 'big brother' the Daily, watch it to see if it stays embedded and provides clues or loses the status.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a1QAno1B/
Here is the strike on the S2 daily support pivot, as well.
TJ
ES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. Stoch - regular calculation - did not embed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YxSm6EPj/
TJ
fyi - there is a new down fractal, as well. Maybe a new up fractal will form soon.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5vchxniJ/
TJ
fyi - latest down fractal just broke. Note (you do as you like, of course) this is likely where Ira would say "no 'new' sells against the lower band in an over-sold condition. Would be ok to 'take some profits, let some profits ride'. Not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase from a broker. Intraday, there is nothing bullish on the chart, however, until back over the 'line in the sand'. TJ.
Deletefyi - SPY 30-min does have gap close, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JQgzb67s/
TJ
mmm..hmmm .. the Principle of Equivalence only allows me to label as follows, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4k8K91nx/
TJ
4th wave sneak.
DeleteDefinitely looks like another abc right now. rsi again in the gutter
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: I'd put a wave counting stop above 562, as shown. Other than that, I'm out for the night. So far, the trade is likely exiting awaiting NVDA's earnings after the close.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cK38aGun/
TJ
Lol! It will be amusing to see if the machines once again manufacture one more and as we eagerly await a 4th wave completion...hehe!
ReplyDelete"one more abc"
ReplyDeleteES / SPY (CFD) futures took out the low on the NVDA earnings. This is the 'minimum' needed for the expanding triangle shown in the main post, above.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/169kmd
It certainly can go further in the overnight, if it wants.
TJ
Would you consider nvda last move up as 5th wave truncation......
ReplyDeleteOn weekly charts
DeleteHere's a chart. To answer your question, it doesn't look very ominous yet. Price has only once just recently broken the 0 - ii Neely trend line. There is no significant overlap. Why wouldn't one allow at typical topping formation like a triangle or a diagonal at the high? Consider just the 2024 price range one is dealing with. Could it 'unexpectedly' turn way south? Sure, but the earnings were actually 'good', not 'bad'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HLrzip5U/
TJ
Start a new page with wah wah:)
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ