The ES futures daily chart in the requested format is below. Last night on some earnings, price briefly poked its head above the 18-day SMA. But, when the economic reports came out this morning, the resistance was too much, and price headed lower before taking out the up (green) fractal shown.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Bias Still Down |
The daily slow stochastic never made it out of over-sold territory. We still don't know if it will try to embed or not. Of note, today's down bar is the largest single down bar since the ⓑ wave low.
Two down (red) fractals have been formed at the low, and there are a couple of ways to see a potential head-and-shoulders topping pattern from here, but first price must break those fractals in a decisive manner at some point either tomorrow or early next week to continue a down trend. The swing line is still mixed as it has a higher high and a lower low.
As usual with an outside day down, price should not take out the high of the outside day within the next two trading sessions or it could constitute a trap for the bears, as Ira teaches.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Both the DAX and Japan especially w/a 2,000 point impulse lower appear to have started 3rd waves down. Next week will be interesting. Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteYw .. 458african. TJ.
DeleteES daily - both down (red) fractals broken; now into 100-day & lower band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9wli8F9q/
TJ
Since yesterday afternoon, this looks like a extended b or running correction. Neither is real bullish.
DeleteIf it was a running correction, the market is very weak, it failed to get back into the wave it was correcting.
DeleteWith Japan in a cycle C down there is always a possibility of a waterfall event. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteThese buyback companies like Mastercard are up today, Wait till the panic starts.
ReplyDeleteUnemployment report was quite ugly and underscores the rapid deterioration in the job market. At this rate a negative print is a strong possibility in next month or two.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - here is one of the potential measured moves (H&S) I noted in the above post. This is accompanied by the current count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/klbCqhZn/
Just be careful as there can be lots of backing & filling on the way down.
TJ
Looks like down move might be close to done.
ReplyDeleteInvalidation at 5287.8 where (v) becomes longer than (iii)
http://tos.mx/!52Nv22we
Don't think so E_D_T. Just like the up move, you were 'rushing' the count. In the down move you seem to be rushing that one too. I'll post a short term one below. TJ.
DeleteGot it E_T, so iv needs some time to form itself.
Deleteright on. TJ
DeleteProbably a triangle for iv.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/!mavNW4v0
SPY 1-hr: looks like we are into iv of (i); watch 38-50% as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gLg9VA0Q/
TJ
SPY 1-hr: there's an hourly higher high and 23.6%. Can go higher if it wants or take longer in time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/erzDDGd5/
TJ
Finding modest support at the cash 100 day sma. And for the "charting challenged", SPX cash sliced right through the uptrend line in place from the October lows. Maybe this 3rd finds support at the May 3rd gap, about 5075.
ReplyDeletenot modest if you see the pattern as a WXY.
Delete@Roberto .. WXY of what ? TJ
DeleteWe could go up again but we still haven't had a point of recognition yet. Could get it today if the Dow closes down over 1,000 pts lower. A good chance. IMHO
ReplyDeleteThese buyback stocks like ORLY,AZO.MA, ect need to come down and the only way that will happen is a waterfall.
ReplyDeleteUNH is another perfect example.
DeleteProbably go out at the LOD for a Sunday night 3 of 3.
ReplyDeleteWar in middle east may trigger more downfall.
ReplyDeleteVIX stopped flagging and came off the highs fairly hard. A lower high often signals a 5th down.
ReplyDeleteI am first looking for v of (i) down. The hourly flagging action is probably iv of (i). Then after a v down there should be a fairly big retrace for (ii), up This still within minute ((iii)). TJ.
ReplyDeleteSounds like we are looking at a ZZ for intermediate 4....keeping the larger potential ED in play....
DeleteYes, so far. TJ.
DeleteIt seems the first wave down from last week's high is longer than the Friday's gap third wave down run, especially in SMH. If I'm not mistaken the third wave can't be the shortest wave, then the expected v wave next should be shorter than Friday's gap down run. Correct? And if we see a larger gap down running move that Friday's early next week, then that would be the third wave extending and not the ending vth wave of (i)?
DeleteSo modest move down Monday/Tuesday to keep the v of (i) in play?
Bigger move down = ?
@Kevin, see the next day's post which is now already up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ