In the ES 4-Hr futures, there are now about 105 candles from the low; close to the 120 recommended for The Eight-Fold-Path-Method for Counting an Impulse Wave. From the chart below, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has gone below the zero line and is now in the area where we look for fourth wave completion.
The lower parallel has been dropped once, and the third wave is now nicely above it to indicate its characteristic as a third wave. Just like the wave on August 6/7, we are now in the location where either a fourth wave holds & the fifth wave begins, or we run the risk of the pattern failing altogether. Yes, the Ⓔ wave can spike lower. This is common in triangles. But it does not have to. The minimum needed to fulfill the expanded triangle has been met. Price so far has retraced about 23.6%; it can go lower if it wants provided it does not get too out of proportion.
One concern for the price pattern is whether any of the drop in the overnight will show up in the cash market. That remains to be seen.
Have an excellent rest of the evening and start to a good day tomorrow,
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: here's the intraday wave-counting-screen updated with the daily pivot points and the local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pnYtWxJZ/
TJ
ES 30-min: outside reversal bar up. Watch the low of the bar for two bars. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: here's the outside reversal bar up, the exceeding of the up (green) fractal from 09:30 ET yesterday, and a tag on the upper band. No close over the band yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5BnSQTA4/
TJ
just fyi - SPY cash 30-min: the wave counting stop has been exceeded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1nIo0Ue0/
TJ
I would think 5th wave failure probably would be elevated here.
ReplyDeletejust fyi - at Fibonacci 34 candles up we are getting 'tails' on R1, but would require a 'significant' down close to activate the Doji. Also, getting 18-100 bull cross.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zQXIp9qz/
TJ
..higher high for the bull-cross negates doji candle. TJ.
DeleteNon stop chop. Day trading Paradise. None of these fast moves last more than a few hours it seems.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: try to remember that cash has this absurdity in it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9zMIMaO7/
TJ
Cash gap now filled. Is this how I'm supposed to count at the top?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kgwPQRuC/
TJ
Wondering if that is not the truncated high.
ReplyDeleteCould be. Neely says the wave out of an expanding triangle is highly subject to failure. TJ.
Delete...and three used up a lot of fuel.
Deletefyi only - poorly bid Treasury auction at ~1 PM
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subpar-7y-auction-tails-direct-bidders-tumble-lowest-march-2020
TJ
It is actually worse than reported. No one other than Primary Dealers participate. How a situation so potentially catastrophic remains largely unreported and recognized by most is truly astounding. Yep, rate cuts' are just around the corner. Powell told us so. But...did he, really?
DeleteNot sure where you're getting your information. Primary dealers took down $6B of $43.8B of total competitive, or about 14%, which is however decently above the July 31st 7yr auction, which was I think about 8%. But yields are down 40bps since then. There are 24 primary dealers, and their responsibility is to make a market in these securities and they are required to participate.
Deletehttps://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2024/R_20240829_3.pdf
You mean to tell me you are so naive as to get your information from a government website? But ahh...that is the problem is it not? Where, indeed! The country is do SO SCREWED. And of course the Covid Jab is both safe and effective, right?
DeleteTj when you have time can u explain the count from todays high to before the big drop in the chart below. I just cant figure out the count...for learning purpore thks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RQJ18RL7/
ReplyDeleteImpulse down and a running correction?
DeleteAbc x abc
DeleteThat's count from high to end of chart
Deletemy two cents is that it counts something like this otherwise you run into degree problem after degree problem.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DO97uYIO/
Notice that within 'c' - which is less than 2.618 - every single bar is shorter in price than 'a'. So, I think that means 'c' expanded by smaller & smaller degree waves, like a third wave is allowed to. But I can't prove it without resorting to nano-analysis and my life is too short for that. Hope it helps. TJ.
Thank you all three. Tj count makes sense i just couldnt see it
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ