Thursday, August 22, 2024

OKRDD

Today was an outside key reversal day down. It was the highest high of a very deep retrace, and took out the prior day's low, closing lower. In fact, today was a triple close key reversal, closing below the last three up closes. Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech by Chair Powell so we'll see if the high of the outside day down is respected for the next two trading sessions or not.

In the interim, I thought I'd take a brief look at the New York Composite Index ($NYA) which made a recent local higher high. That weekly chart is below.


The salient points are these: 1) price is still in a parallel, 2) the EWO is red and declining, and 3) the timing is amazing with Y = 2.618 x W in time. Of interest, Y = ~1.382 x W in price, also at this time.

It still a very dicey call to make, but some of the ratios are getting very interesting. The NQ and ES have not made new all-time highs. Here is a chart showing todays outside key reversal day, down.


Two things to note here, the closing price bias is still up until it isn't. And the daily slow stochastic has now fully embedded.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

31 comments:

  1. a of Y is very large, its subwaves seem same degree of W.

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  2. Pretty dovish speech by Powell. You can read it here. 'Time to adjust policy is here'.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240823a.htm

    TJ

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  3. Lol! Can anyone explain to me why anyone thinks the onset of a FED rate cutting cycle is cause for bullish optimism. Are market participants that ignorant of market history as regards interest rates and the FED? Funny stuff!!!

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  4. If spx turns lower here without breaking yesterday high..that will be the ultimate ew ...

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    Replies
    1. I was expecting new ATHs. Looks like we just might pull it off.... 😊

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  5. When i posted abv message we were 2 pointa away from breaking the high of yeaterday wow...

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    Replies
    1. Does anyone else think the algos are specifically programmed to bust up EW counts?! 😬

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  6. SPY down to gap support after double-top (so far). Day isn't over yet.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/KxDkSh5z/

    TJ

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  7. Never broke yesterday's high. Extreme move, but LD still looks correct

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  8. Replies
    1. They don't want participants to leave the market. Making a higher high today into the close would make the most sense, then gap it down hard Monday. Not sure if it will happen but it would be the ideal trap.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Leading diagonal ?
    http://tos.mx/!3surULMv

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  10. SPY 5-min: I don't know for sure, but I am asking the question, "is this how this thing counts?" The reason is that 11:30 AM up wave sure looks and counts like a :5. And we have now had a 70%+ retrace.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/pb9HQJCH/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. I also saw the truncation

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    2. seems more like 1/A then 2/B now we are in 3/C up. above opening range on fridays is not usually great time to expect reversal when up week and month, if in a 3/C need accelleration soon.

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    3. Try counting it as 3 waves up followed by an inverted flat with a long c.

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  11. Most recent down fractal from 8/21 exceeded lower in USD/JPY

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  12. SPY 5-min: short term wedge as they stalled and stalled. Will they try to stall more. (Hint: they 'do' know you are there).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/CgiUn8yT/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. joe i see "them" moving up ES 12/13 last 2 hour periods since low yesterday, with only down period 1.5 points. So i dont see any stall in pushng it higher when you look at open and closes and ignoree the profits they made by whipping it around earlier

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    2. and the 2 hours starting an hour ago is the biggest open to close range since the low close yesterday.

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    3. https://postimg.cc/F1CphDM1

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  13. Will be interesting if NDX diverges in making new ATH. Have a great week-end everyone!

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  14. SPY 5-min: stall, and stall, and stall

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/fQ38qakF/

    TJ

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  15. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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