For literally months, we have been saying that we were likely in an Intermediate Wave (3) higher in the ES futures. The awful price action suggested it could be the third wave of a contracting ending diagonal. That idea has not been totally invalidated yet, but as I posted before, the NQ futures, and NDX index did break the length requirement becoming longer than their respective wave (1)'s. So, is it possible that the ES futures could break the length requirement? It is. What if it does? Then, it suggests this might be the applicable count as shown on the weekly SPY cash index.
The first wave could be the expanding diagonal - which we also said could be the A wave - and would now simply become the 1 wave. Wave 2 would be a 50% retrace, which is deep enough to support an extended third wave, and it would be of the sharp form. Wave x3 is already longer than 1/A and wave 4 might become an expanded flat to alternate with the sharp second wave.
The EWO would currently agree with this count with wave ③ of 3 being on the peak of the EWO and wave ⑤ of 3 being on the divergence. The EWO is currently red and declining. It is because today was such a weird day and hung around near the high all day today, that this interpretation became a higher probability - along with the NQ having exceeded its length considerations.
So, let's see how it goes. Have a good start to the evening and the weekend,
TraderJoe
Tj,
ReplyDeleteB waves can be even 125% of A wave
Does that mean we can go up to even 5803 approx on s&p
B waves can be 138% - 150% without issue; rarely 162%. TJ.
DeleteI was told by Mr. P many years ago 1.382 was max for B waves
Delete@sammy .. 1.382 is more true for B waves of an expanded flat; Less true if the B wave is part of a much larger running triangle, "running flat" or 'failed flat'. The 1.618 generally means the eventual 'C' wave would not make a lower low than the A wave. TJ.
DeleteWe saw some big b waves here once upon a time, right Joe?
ReplyDeleteYes, we have. TJ.
DeleteThe never-ending 5 wave up
ReplyDeleteThe machines are clearly in charge...until they are not....
DeleteES Daily - here is the likely structure & degree analysis, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JBLIoVB4/
TJ
Thanks. I think the day fed cuts rate should be the top.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ.
ReplyDeletePossible we´re in 5 now with 1 as the extended wave?
https://invst.ly/1673vt
Not so plausible with ((x)) = 200% * ((w)).. but ((x)) still shorter in price and time than bigger degree 1 and 3.
More plausible is ((y)) = aprox 1.618 * ((w)).
If 3 ended july top as the extended wave, it´s smaller in time than 1.
I also think location for ((3)) is being the shortest wave within 3.
'possible' but not according to The Eight-Fold-Path Method for the weekly wave with about 110 candles on it, and the EWO having diverged as I showed. In other words, your count, while 'plausible' disregards momentum indications. TJ.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteMaybe momentum indicators also would look plausible with 5 day candles..
IF you want to get more granular, than weekly, this count has no length problem with minute ((iii)), and still results in a three-wave down wave to the current location.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5xfTRXNN/
As far as I can tell, minute ((iv)) is 'too large in price' to be anything but the same degree as minute ((ii)), and anything else would be 'counting backward in time'. Thanks for pointing out the issue with the illustration problem, but the same result holds.
TJ
Also, thoughts on this DJI count
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1674ag
https://invst.ly/1674dh
It looks like your claimed smaller degree wave iv on the daily is larger than the claimed larger degree wave 4.
DeleteYour´re right!
DeleteThis is better.
https://invst.ly/1674ql
Not an expert on tripple combos..
I think first count works too. Otherwise is backward counting as TJ says.
DeleteDJI - weekly - here are some thoughts on how the Dow 'might' count in the impulse scenario. The first wave is f-ugly, but it is not overlapping, and minute (ii) is less than 100% of minute ((i)) at the lower left.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vppuHQ48/
I used the futures to include every price & time relationship.
TJ
..one could ask if minute ⓧ went over the top, why didn't 4 become an expanded flat? Maybe it is becoming a triangle, instead, with Payroll reports, the FED outcome and election dead-ahead. TJ.
DeletePossible contracting diagonal on appl?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1683uz
5 just shorter than 3
Or to much of an overshoot?
DeleteES 30-min: price has taken out the high of the prior OKRDD, setting a potential trap for the bears.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g8ljE1x6/
This is also a reminder of the intraday wave counting screen. Note a few things. Price did not touch the daily Pivot all night. Price did not touch the lower band all night. These are signs of strength so the new high should not be shocking. This takes out the fractals at the high, and so far price stalling at the upper band.
TJ
ES 30-min: the slow stochastic lost its embedded status, price headed back to the 18-per SMA, fiddled there briefly, and has now hit the lower band, taking out the prior down (red) fractal in the process.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mrRuZ1oY/
TJ
ES 30-min: now a lower low and a break of the third down (red) fractal back at 19:00 hrs. The bands are being bent down. It 'looks like' five waves, but the intraday slow stochastic has gone over-sold. The previous bar has a close below the band. Will this one, too? TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: now down to 100-ma. TJ.
DeleteUpdated chart: price went to/ through the daily pivot point, broke the fourth down (red) fractal back and struck the 100-ma. The slow stochastic is over-sold. It 'looks like' five waves which argues for watching the high on a retrace.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vKkzkqXR/
TJ
ES 30-min: two closes below the bands drops the odds to 3-5% that the next close is below the band. Not impossible, just lower odds. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ