Today in the ES futures started out with a marginal higher high. By the end of the day, it wound up making a lower low than the prior day, and a lower close. This is the definition of an outside-day-down (ODD). Here is the daily chart in the requested format.
The daily closing bias remains lower, the outside day candle is a continuation until/unless the high of the outside day is exceeded within the next two trading sessions. The swing line is lower. There is, already, a lower low candle for Thursday's session, and the daily slow stochastic remains in over-sold territory.
In terms of support and resistance, the 100-day SMA should contain prices on the upside. As far as support, there are two comments to make. First, the Bollinger Band/Moving Average support should come in around the combination of the lower Bollinger Band and the 200-day SMA. However, Elliott Wave support may not come in until the wave (ii), low or the ⓑ wave low at ~5,020, even if these are exceeded somewhat.
In one way or another wave minute-iv, circle-iv, can take more time if it wants to. But it is not required to. It 'could' be done, with lower probability. It could form a triangle, but it does not have to.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
spy has Diagonal over 535 off the Low. im sure i can find it in ES as well. another 1.50% up lots of new possibilities
ReplyDeleteTJ,you nailed it. Japan could extend this wave e of 2 up close to 35,900 and then start 3 of 3 down. We shall see if they can take this rally into the close. If so Globex would probably see a rug pull. BTW I think we still have a nested 1,2's count. Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteThat second two would be larger than the first.
DeleteLook @ GS that's 1 down 2 up. The UST has probably topped and Japan will be in a 3 of 3 with Europe. Put a fork in this market. The dying last gasp of a Fed Snafu mania. That's what I see.
DeleteES/SPY 5-min CFD - just saying what it 'looks like'. It looks like a triangle with a thrust out of it, and now back-testing channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15yyla
TJ
These two channels seem to be what is working. EWO is working its way back to -10 on the 4hr.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/70Oklk1
joe, the top of the channel on NQ will overlap wave 1- i think its worth mentioning
ReplyDelete5 waves up off yesterday's low for SPY. Do we lean toward a first wave of a larger rally, or correction ending C of IV?
ReplyDeleteI think algos or markets have figured out that every 3rd person is using basic EW so algos have made EW count extremely tricky always many options availanle for EW coint
DeleteQuick question, were you trading during the 2007-2009 or 1999-2003 periods?
DeleteDow +700 the big bank algos seem to love that # GS at 618 mission accomplished.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: a count like this works regardless of whether the high is slightly exceeded or not. Yesterday's potential up truncation was repaired.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MFBgZvqd/
TJ
Looks like the latest up trend line is currently giving way, a bit, but I'd want to see price get below the Ⓔ wave of that prior triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VXMs3Ozs/
TJ
ET is it common to see an extended flat after a diagonal ?
DeleteNot common, but possible. TJ.
DeleteOne more question on the diagonal. The wave (v) in 'a' has more candles compared to wave (iii). Is it a guideline to have less time in (v) and not an requirement ?
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ