Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Another ODD

Today in the ES futures started out with a marginal higher high. By the end of the day, it wound up making a lower low than the prior day, and a lower close. This is the definition of an outside-day-down (ODD). Here is the daily chart in the requested format.


The daily closing bias remains lower, the outside day candle is a continuation until/unless the high of the outside day is exceeded within the next two trading sessions. The swing line is lower. There is, already, a lower low candle for Thursday's session, and the daily slow stochastic remains in over-sold territory.

In terms of support and resistance, the 100-day SMA should contain prices on the upside. As far as support, there are two comments to make. First, the Bollinger Band/Moving Average support should come in around the combination of the lower Bollinger Band and the 200-day SMA. However, Elliott Wave support may not come in until the wave (ii), low or the  wave low at ~5,020, even if these are exceeded somewhat.

In one way or another wave minute-iv, circle-iv, can take more time if it wants to. But it is not required to. It 'could' be done, with lower probability. It could form a triangle, but it does not have to.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. spy has Diagonal over 535 off the Low. im sure i can find it in ES as well. another 1.50% up lots of new possibilities

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  2. TJ,you nailed it. Japan could extend this wave e of 2 up close to 35,900 and then start 3 of 3 down. We shall see if they can take this rally into the close. If so Globex would probably see a rug pull. BTW I think we still have a nested 1,2's count. Thanks TJ

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    1. That second two would be larger than the first.

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    2. Look @ GS that's 1 down 2 up. The UST has probably topped and Japan will be in a 3 of 3 with Europe. Put a fork in this market. The dying last gasp of a Fed Snafu mania. That's what I see.

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  3. ES/SPY 5-min CFD - just saying what it 'looks like'. It looks like a triangle with a thrust out of it, and now back-testing channel.

    https://invst.ly/15yyla

    TJ

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  4. These two channels seem to be what is working. EWO is working its way back to -10 on the 4hr.

    https://imgur.com/70Oklk1

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  5. joe, the top of the channel on NQ will overlap wave 1- i think its worth mentioning

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  6. 5 waves up off yesterday's low for SPY. Do we lean toward a first wave of a larger rally, or correction ending C of IV?

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    Replies
    1. I think algos or markets have figured out that every 3rd person is using basic EW so algos have made EW count extremely tricky always many options availanle for EW coint

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    2. Quick question, were you trading during the 2007-2009 or 1999-2003 periods?

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  7. Dow +700 the big bank algos seem to love that # GS at 618 mission accomplished.

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  8. SPY 30-min: a count like this works regardless of whether the high is slightly exceeded or not. Yesterday's potential up truncation was repaired.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/MFBgZvqd/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Looks like the latest up trend line is currently giving way, a bit, but I'd want to see price get below the Ⓔ wave of that prior triangle.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/VXMs3Ozs/

      TJ

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    2. ET is it common to see an extended flat after a diagonal ?

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    3. One more question on the diagonal. The wave (v) in 'a' has more candles compared to wave (iii). Is it a guideline to have less time in (v) and not an requirement ?

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  9. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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