Like a bad haircut - you know one of those 'crew' cuts where the hairs stick straight up - today's SPY cash contract has been bumping along the highs refusing as of today to make a new one. Here is the 4 Hr chart of the SPY ETF.
You can see the repeated pokes at the prior all-time high without success. There are at least four of them in this wave. The few things we 'know' are: 1) that price has broken the 0 - ii trend line. 2) There has been some support at the prior August 1 high which has been hit on the downside twice now, and 3) the MACD has curled down a bit.
What we have is a low-volume summer holiday market with the junior pilots in control. So, they can just sit there and whip prices around until the VIPs come back from weekend vacation and decide what's for the best. It sure feels like a fourth wave, anyway. Can it decline deeper? Oh yes it can. Must it? No, it doesn't have to. It's The Fourth Wave Conundrum and it happens at every degree of trend.
Have an excellent rest of the evening and start to tomorrow.
TraderJoe
Tomorrow and after the weekend is the end of the month trading day(s) so we might see some in flows and possibly that wave v.
ReplyDeleteNew ATHs seem a foregone conclusion certainly for DJIA and SPX. What I find fascinating is whether we see them prior to a completion of wave 4.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen along with updated daily pivots after the early morning news is out.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y3ESjsY5/
TJ
Does anyone else think that positing "volatility" justifies stripping out the cost of food and fuel from inflation gauges is the height of absurdity? Is there anything more"core" to the consumer's cost of living than those two? It is a clown show, lol!
ReplyDeleteFederal Gov't and the banks could save a lot of money if they just had a 'formula' for rate-setting. Then, if the CEO's of banks didn't like the result, they could just vote to 'change' the formula. End the FED: the inane pronouncements and the useless press conferences. TJ.
DeleteAmen to that!
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: just a note for regular readers here. See the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gTszBuLT/
TJ
..there's no good indication of that yet, but a lower low 'might' make it more proportional. TJ.
DeleteOpening gap closed .. one indication ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/X6JaQxjB/
TJ
Rsi already oversold on that small dump. New highs by Tuesday wouldn't surprise me at all.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ