Today was pretty snarky for an inflow day. Overnight, prices as measured by the ES futures did rise. They just didn't make a new all-time-high. The Dow futures rose again, and also did not make a new all-time high either. Why not? What was stopping them? So early in the day, it provided the idea that perhaps the futures are again in triangle mode. Maybe they are waiting on something like the Payroll Employment Report on Friday, or some other react-to-the-news way to cover their tracks and reverse.
So, in the ES 30-minute futures we showed this potential triangle idea, and the fractals and indicators associated with it. If it's not a triangle, then it could be a ((5))th wave truncation at the red star. But, right now the triangle fits it better (until there are more waves we can see). All we can say, is we've been saying higher highs are possible. They still are and they would not interfere with the overall wave count of Intermediate (W)-(X)-(Y) on the weekly chart. We didn't get the higher highs today - maybe later in the week. Maybe not.
At some point, the market is going to do the unexpected: set us up for one thing and do the opposite. Just when remains to be seen.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Truncation
ReplyDeleteTriangle gets invalidated below 4512?
ReplyDeleteyes, I believe so.
DeleteTJ
Perhaps I am being over-simplistic here, but it sure looks to me like yet another consolidation pattern entered in an up-trend. Of course this does fit well with an unfolding triangle of some sort. Whatever the designation, an up-ward break would "normally" be expected...this market has been anything but, so the outcome should be intetesting!
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe....your such a treat
ReplyDeleteThanks! Maybe someday we'll see our last "4th" and "5th" (speculation only) :o)
ReplyDeleteHXC SPY - Have we seen this movie?
https://www.mediafire.com/view/9uu90aso485b5me/Dragon.PNG/file
Today felt just like 9/1/2000. The market rallied 8.19% during August 2000, and topped out on 9/1/2000 with a shooting star candle...the exact same candle as today.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/cVeCpPDD
ReplyDeleteNasdaq internals are very weak. A/D line diverging and only 52% above the 50 dma.
The market dis-association from so many metrics is now of such extreme size and duration that nean reversion is likely to be violent. Whether it is key moving averages, or economic measures like P.E. ratios, price to sales, market cap to GDP, etc.,the extremes are absolutely historically unprecedented. Sven recently pointed out the remarkable in-frequency of the monthly 5EMA tag in 2022...once! A September tag was missed only once in the last 15 years:2018! We all know what came next...it currently sits at around 4380.
DeleteThat ties in with the fact that SPX touches its 200 dma in a given year 86% of time
DeleteApologies for being late getting to the comments. I had to be on a zoom call and it took several hours.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Oh you mean you’re a human being with a life and other things to do? Hahah
DeleteThanks TJ
Fwiw - RM suggests we'll exceed yesterday's morning low, and likely test 50ma
ReplyDelete(basis 4hr, cfd)
Good morning all. ES 30-min: by the skin-of-its-teeth it 'is' possible to count the expanding diagonal fifth wave (up) with wave ((5)) now longer in price and time than wave ((3)), and wave ((4)) longer in price and time than wave ((2)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/96c8jl9Z/
It 'can' go higher if it wants.
TJ
ES 30-min gravestone doji and lower low candle (not confirming, yet).
DeleteTJ
VIX - sitting on uptrend line from June, but it’s lower BB. is 13.76. Which one wins?
ReplyDeleteIYR - seasonality courtesy of SentimenTrader -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ggzvbh7c2bs6a91/IYR.PNG/file
SPX/VIX (wkly) Ratio update - [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4e07euh0wdza19g/spxvixW.PNG/file
Not sure if this means anything. VIX has a lower limit but SPX doesn't have an upper limit so it's not necessary for the ratio to keep rising over a 3 year period as SPX rises
DeleteCertainly true. Two thoughts on this -
Delete1. VIX has room (theoretically) to go to 0, but doesnt ever approach it as it "could". This seems to suggest a "floor" of some kind (maybe)?
2. Even if VIX were to stay fixed at, let's say 12ish, as SPX continues to rise, the ratio should rise. This suggests to me that VIX is "generally" rising enough to keep the ratio below the 2018 reading. Could be dead wrong, lol. At the least, its an interesting ratio (imho).
fair point on #2. Thinking about this some more, volatility tends to have long term regimes. The SPX/VIX ratio in March of 2000, just before the tech recession started, would have only been about 62. This is more inline with when the bottom of corrections in your chart but it aligned with a top of a bull market in 2000.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/hZWTXUyk
DeleteNotice before 2020 sell off the SPX & VIX were both rising. This usually happens at tops.
..just if interested .. IF the VIX was at zero, it would mean that "no" price change was expected in the S&P500 for the next 'thirty days'.
Delete"The VIX is interpreted as annualized implied volatility of a hypothetical option on the S&P500 stock index with 30 days to expiration, based on the prices of near-term S&P500 options traded on CBOE."
Link:
https://www.macroption.com/vix-calculation/
TJ
.i.e the VIX is concerned with 'time' as a factor in the calculation, and not just price. So, a ratio of the two (i.e. SPX/VIX) mixes the concept of price & time, and is not like a simple ratio of DJI/GOLD which is price/price only.
DeleteTJ
4hr (cfd) - a look at volume and other observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ku7bvkp5rromw16/4hr2.PNG/file
SPY 5-min (along with ES) has a lower low, but not impulsive yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g5IjYUgB/
The second wave down is roughly-equal (right now), but slightly longer than the first wave down.
TJ
Bank Index (alert?) - Courtesy of Kimble Charting - (non subscriber notification)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rvj6lfrzdhuqjxx/Bankindex.PNG/file
SPY 5-min; in SPY (not ES), this down wave is longer in price than the prior down wave. This is something to keep in mind. It will have bigger implications if that occurs in ES, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ENqNr5Zs/
TJ
SPY 5-min (and ES) both have a >1.618 wave downward. The Principle of Equivalence applies until there is a clear fourth and fifth wave lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/C0gxxJlf/
The symbol c/iii > means this wave is not confirmed as over yet, but it could be over at this length.
TJ
SPY 5-min: there was no clear fourth and fifth wave lower. Therefore, the a,b,c down may only be a "b" wave in larger half-hourly expanding diagonal upward - which we said could go higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/q6IOcjcb/
There were a clearer five waves up at the end of the day and upward overlap on the 'a' wave.
TJ
5min (cfd) - a close-up look at our morning turnaround -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kolr6gedgaks6ip/5mincloseup.PNG/file