Like it or not, the best Elliott Wave evaluation of prices since the high is that there are only three-waves down, and the third wave is 1.618 x the first wave, looking like this on the ES 4-Hr chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Three Waves So Far |
Yes, today was very impulsive. Yes, lots of key levels were broken. Two of those key levels were the lengths of minute ((iv)) of the ES daily diagonal, and the length of minute ((ii)) of the same diagonal. Those levels were exceeded lower.
Still the 1.618 Fibonacci extension was not exceeded in the futures. Further, what started out as a potential 1:10 kick-off day at the mid-point of the session, fizzled a bit to only about a ratio of 1:5 advances-to-declines by the end of the day.
Therefore, until we know more, the Principle of Equivalence still applies. That means the labels of a/i, b/ii, and c/iii are exactly equivalent until they are proven not to be. Could the market add a fourth and a fifth wave down to complete an impulse? Yes, it certainly could. The middle of today's wave suggests it might. But, the point is it hasn't yet. The market will tell us very clearly when it has impulsed. So far, no impulse is seen.
So remain flexible, patient and calm. And have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
We can no longer say the trend is up (higher highs and higher lows).
ReplyDeletenever say never, the DJI futures haven't invalidated the diagonal yet by breaching the 33,436 mark (it came close) and today it's only a 150 points or so from overlapping the i/a.
ReplyDeleteIt is certainly true we have violated some long-held trend-lines, but we havw been here before and we know what Powell will do.I assumed the VIX gap up was a break-away and not just one more pattern gap. I may yet be proven wrong on that score.
ReplyDeleteWith the S&P 500 breaking below the August low of 4367, Neely has declared the bull market is over. His call is now for a 4-5 year consolidation but it will start with a violent down wave over the next 3 months. Thought it was worth mentioning since many here follow his work.
ReplyDeleteThx!
DeleteTJ
Remarkable that a possible third wave at this degree should have concluded with a whimper, not a bang...we shall see...!
DeleteI would really like to know the truth about Neely. I don’t follow him but I know a lot of you do. I keep hearing credible people like Avi Gilbert say if you follow him you will lose money in the long run. Does anyone have performance records on Neely, thanks.
DeleteHere is some recent easy-to-access information. It is by no means the complete story. And it depends on how much you trust, "Timer Digest".
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/company-news-article.asp?aid=37
TJ
TimH, Neely has made some spectacular calls. In April 2020 he said we were going to ATHs. But he also thought the bull market could have been over in Oct 2020. Just keep in mind whatever he is saying now, he can easily change.
DeleteThanks TJ
DeleteSPX(cfd) (8hr) - pre open
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/87xksy23uunpnap/8hr21.PNG/file
Opening gap filled (cfd)
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen. Daily pivots not shown as S1 is below the market and R1 is above the market, and not really providing any help at this point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZkaaV1Ba/
Recent fractals are shown, and one fractal of the wave 4 was broken to the down side with the channel break. Chart is about 10-min behind.
TJ
SPY midday -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7cvp611ux1wejq8/midday.PNG/file
CAC (mthly) Interesting chart courtesy of Kimble Charting -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2ycdi0g4nb0cauy/KimbleCharting.PNG/file
A lot of overlapping from 2009 forward -
DeleteES 30-min; not sure yet but if price closes below 4,386 might be a pre-FED triangle in the works for a fourth wave. Time for some footie now.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Half-time. ES 30-min: a couple of more fractals to pay attention to in both directions. The sharp up wave, yesterday & early this morning labeled as ((A)), ((B)), ((C)) can be the three waves of a larger 'a' wave of a triangle, or it 'could be' all of wave iv, up, with wave v down to follow.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9Oex1uIA/
TJ
SPY E.O.D. -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0te6435o4qvk37e/SPYrecap.PNG/file
no, the triangle is much larger. I apologize for any confusion.
DeleteES 30-min; in the after hours, the fractals are breaking down; likely leading to the b wave of a triangle. Look for a possible 78 - 82% wave for a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zIkRe4PX/
TJ
It's also possible that a wave iv traingle completed at 3:37PM (est) this afternoon.
Delete..less likely because of the wave proportions, and a flat wave I counted at the end of the day (not published).
DeleteTJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ