Every wave is currently in it's place according to degree labeling, and there are no errors or warnings from the MotiveWave software platform. There are a few more facts of interest below the chart.
Additional Items Not on the Chart
Within wave Intermediate (W): wave minute ((b)) of minor B is shorter in price and time than all of Minor A, the prior larger degree wave in the same direction. Thus, it can be a subwave. Minor B overlaps Minor A. Wave minute ((i)) of C is a leading diagonal and is still shorter in price an time than Minor A the prior larger degree wave in the same direction, therefore it qualifies as a subwave.
Within wave Intermediate (Y): wave minute ((i)) of minor C is shorter in price and time than all of Minor A the prior larger degree wave in the same direction, therefore, it qualifies as a subwave. Minor B as a triangle is definitely shorter in net price than Intermediate (X) the prior higher degree wave in the down direction and qualifies as a subwave. Measurements show that time-wise Minor B may be shorter or just the same as Intermediate (X) in time, but I'm not sure exactly of the requirement since Minor B is a triangle who's very purpose is to take up time and move price sideways.
This is the second post this weekend, and, if you have not seen the first, you may wish to view it now.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
I have been following you since December of 2020, and it really is a sight to see when all of the calls/waves come together in one big picture...so appreciate all of the work you do and what you are teaching.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm thinking correctly, the chart above suggests at least two things-
ReplyDelete1. We should retrace (minimum) to ((e)) of B in less time than C took to complete
2. This should occur BEFORE a new high is seen
BTC (wkly) Add'l thoughts - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jp6a2xvgktmmmn0/BTCwk.PNG/file
XLE (mthly) - Looks to have some upside potential -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5valb571v6heqlr/XLEm.PNG/file
Excellent analysis. I’m not sure my pea brain could ever figure out all of these rules. With Y breaking the 0 to X line, Does that mean that Y could not be wave 3 as many analyst like Avi believe it is? Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteThat's what it 'should' mean, as it means the (Y) wave has 'less' momentum than the (W) wave, not more. Third waves 'usually' have more momentum.
DeleteTJ
Quite a complex beast of a wave. If labels are correct, we at least now know we are dealing with a massive primary degree flat correction of some kind, so the C wave down has limited options and has to be five waves. If the first wave down is not an impulse, the only other motive option is an LD.
DeleteOn the matter of willingness to actually count and measure waves, I think what many of us have difficulty with is identifying the correct degree of the current wave. I have found that ambiguity on this point has been a weakness of most EW analysts. I realized after looking at the latest chart now that we are looking at a PRIMARY degree B wave...no wonder I was confused...not T.J.`s fault as I am sure he said that earlier.
ReplyDeleteFibs - a look at three different measures (related to DAL (mthly), log) [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/p5evfu5zv5kpud7/Fibs.PNG/file
ET, Thank you for you post of this longer time frame. What is the minimum retracement to satisfy this count?
ReplyDeleteIf wave (B) is complete - What is the minimum target for (C)?
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the education, this post, and the thousand others!!!
ReplyDeleteTNX (3mth) - A Long term look you may find of interest -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/g7rq3owv6ve5aim/TNX3m.PNG/file
hello TJ
ReplyDeletenice work Sir
however since A of Y was a leading diagonal, so it is very unlikely that C of Y will be an ending diagonal imho...
my count is slighty different in regards to the end of "B" and the C-wave of Y.
yours truly
KaVi
I remained opened to the impulse variety of A which looks like this because wave minute ((iii)) can be seen as > 1.618 x minute ((i)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YWFSwlWj/
In that case, the diagonal portion of A is only minute ((v)) and it would be at one degree lower than the Minor C wave diagonal.
I'm not saying you are incorrect. I'm saying that it looks like a matter of interpretation for a wave the likes of which many, including me, have not seen before.
TJ
Not really related but only b of 2 and 4 can be expanded flats in a contracting diagonal, correct?
ReplyDeleteyes, correct; at the degree of the diagonal. But internally, say, wave micro-((iv)) of sub-minuette a, of the first a-b-c, could be a flat as well. But, that is at a lower degree than the diagonal itself.
DeleteTJ
ES 3-min (very, very short term); there 'appears' to have been an impulse down with 150 candles on the chart, and then three-waves-up. The up wave is very, very, short in 'time' in comparison to the down wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7sjvWzIr/
Perhaps there will be a) a Flat, or b) a multiple zigzag to extend the time of the correction. Maybe there will still be an effort to get back to the 'line in the sand' which failed earlier last night.
TJ
https://schrts.co/BvziharG
ReplyDeleteWill this help the new money trade at beginning of month? Maybe.
ES 5-min: just fyi - ES hits 4,427.00, at 4,426.50, the 90% retrace level of the three up waves, and the minimum needed for the 'b' wave of a flat. Can go lower, if it wants, of course.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Chart showing 90% level hit (chart is delayed 10 min).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t6wpeHcC/
TJ
Cfd (roughly hr + 45min) showing positive HD, suggesting exceeding overnight peak (should it carry through). Would be just above .786 retrace.
ReplyDeleteThe positive HD is negated by a lower close. I have a neg reg hidden div in play as well (fighting against the pos. HD). The neg RD hidden suggests lower prices to come.
DeleteI agree. Indices printing series of bull flags and pennants with subsequent upward breaks.
ReplyDeleteSheesh .. i was trying to count a simple impulse up, but the wave got slow and sloppy and then overlapped downwards! Maybe to get over the 10:30 am high it will turn into a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VY9nW53N/
TJ
..breaking down; now a 62% retrace on the up wave. Just doesn't seem all that bullish.
DeleteTJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ