Today was an inside day for the ES futures, as can be seen on the daily chart, below. The candle did leave another tail, and may just represent consolidation of the previous large candle downward. However, it was a lower low day for the NQ futures.
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| ES Futures - 1 D - SMA Alignment |
It seems worth noting that the moving averages have aligned to the down side today with the 9-period below the 18-period, and both below the 50-period. That hasn't happened in quite a while.
That is all.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
SPY August low 436.10, 20 week ma 435.14. Wonder if we close the month below the 20 week and below August low? Rocktober could be interesting :)
ReplyDeleteFAANG (wkly) equal weighted - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/e2mfvce7mtuqjff/eqFAANG.PNG/file
Good morning all. Here is a count on the correction. There are now 5 waves down from the high, and it is now a question - when the down move is confirmed as over - whether a retrace will honor the most recent high. Overall this correction is an hourly fourth wave if the correction holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YEjzesGL/
Of interest, there are two leading expanding diagonals; one up to the 'a' wave, and one down to the ((a)) wave of the 'b' wave. Makes for very, very choppy trading.
TJ
Morning TJ. I'm having a hard time visualizing the expanding diagonals. What time frame?
DeleteNevermind my question. I see your leading diagonals. The coffee hadn't kicked in yet =)
ReplyDeletegood coffee!
DeleteTJ
HD target at 4305+, basis cfd.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: nice impulsive break of trend channel lower, and break of prior 'b' wave. All with an extended fifth wave x((5)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BmdvT927/
TJ
interesting with end of quarter https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-large-accelerant-flows-month-end-opex
ReplyDeletehypothetically speaking, in a contracting diagonal, can the 'a' wave of 3 go lower than wave 1?
ReplyDelete..most probably, yes, as long as wave 'a' is less than wave(i) overall.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/11/diagonal-degrees-and-avoidance-of.html
TJ
ES 30-min: here's an update. Remember, chart is about 10-min behind.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8fadwtWW/
TJ
..fyi only .. price hits S3 intraday pivot @ 4,304.50, so far.
DeleteTJ
ES (dly) update - 1 of 3 requirements done, working on #2. (10min delay)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ekm95bkhgbtwwip/ESd.PNG/file
Thanks GW
DeleteFrom August to the present looks like a Head and Should pattern, especially looking at a 480 minute chart.
SPY & cfd - update (comparison) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o6sc173gklz0dn0/cash30cfd.PNG/file
ES 30-min: there is upward overlap, and the wave count has temporarily become much more challenging. Wave five downward may be turning into a diagonal of some type, but that is not for certain yet. And, as well as upward overlap on small time scales there is downward overlap to deal with too.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES has the new low of the day. So, I am thinking maybe this is a third wave in a diagonal five of a larger '(a)' wave. Not sure of the degree yet. Too much going on. Will work on that tonight a bit.
DeleteTJ
So, with the lower low, and the overlaps, I'm thinking 'something' like this:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qnyj7x6i/
Ignore the degree labels for now.
TJ
For myself counting has been difficult, I must visit this page frequently to see where I am at and thank TJ for all his efforts. My SPX Daily with monthly cycle lows almost exact date each month. Has behavior changed as we see daily heading lower into October? ? https://www.tradingview.com/x/wvUz0M2r/
ReplyDeletewelcome..one clue might be that Elliott Wave Oscillator at the bottom of the chart. At -120 isn't it the same depth (-100%) of the height of the prior highest wave of +120? The guideline for the EWO for a fourth wave, per The Eight Fold Path Method, is +10% to -40% with 120 - 160 candles on the chart. Do you see it the same?
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ