Looking at the daily ES chart, below, today's "inside day" most likely represents some kind of consolidation.
With the FED meeting results due tomorrow, the candle could represent either all of a fourth wave, up, or portions of a triangle wave still under construction.
For the triangle option, see the chart we posted in the comments for the previous day at this LINK. In any event, we could only count three-waves-up from yesterday's rise into this morning's high, shown as the ((A)), ((B)), ((C)), up.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
RTY (2day) - There's a battle going on -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bgbl32c2l8dpyb7/RTY.PNG/file
The Transportation Index looks really sick, floor is creaking style. I took a stab at the count, can you QA? Fingers crossed:
ReplyDelete1) Reference to # of candles: CHECK (120-160 candles)
2) Show EW Osc: CHECK
3) Fibonacci measures: CHECK
4) Alternatation: CHECK
5) Show moving average for form and balance: Not Shown
6) Consider The Principle of Equivalence: CHECK
One thing I'm not so sure about is how to draw and use the channels. I've seen channels drawn from 0-2, 1-3, and even 1-5 (rare). Each of these will have different slopes so I'm not sure how to use them with regards to testing the wave 4 retrace or otherwise.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/nlgmk3pgsj32l5w/DJT_EW_Count.JPG/file
Superb job on the first wave down! But, you must also consider the Principle of Equivalence on red 1,2 as well. They 'could be' red A,B as well, and 2/B could be further to the right to not cut off a part of wave 3. Very glad to see you practice, properly!
DeleteTJ
Thanks for the chart. How is net selling defined? I never understood that or other similar concepts like 'money on the sidelines'. For every buyer there is offsetting seller in terms of #of shares and money.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. ES 30-min got lower towards 78% overnight making better proportions IFF a triangle is to happen. Right now being very non-committal. Chart below is about 10-min behind, and there is some down side overlap at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GsJ7KGQ6/
TJ
Isn't a simple zig zag off the lows for ES 30 (targeting the 50ma) a viable alternate?
DeleteRehetorical Question: How often do 4th waves retrace more than 50% of wave 3 before the 'look' of the impulse starts to look odd? Dow futures already retraced 61.8%. There's still no overlap with wave 2, but odds of impulse from the top are starting to decline.
ReplyDeleteSPY 3hrs in -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/enyq0oyd1u486d0/spy5m22.PNG/file
(E) of ((B)) is lower than (C) of ((B)) which breaks a triangle 'rule'.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: This is all I see so far, this morning. There are two zigzags up, with the second one shorter in price than the first, but the second one takes 'longer in time' than the first.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jSpuq4ln/
'Could be' a double combination that would still alternate with the second wave as this x wave did not go below the origin. But it is up to the market to still 'prove' an impulse to the down side.
TJ
checking my understanding, this whole structure with two zigzags connected by an 'x' wave is not considered a flat because the two zig zags are three wave structures instead of five?
Delete..no, because the x wave is not the 90% level required 'by rule' for a flat. This is covered in the Elliott Wave Principle, and Neely disagrees with it. Neely says anything over 68% is a 'flat'. However, my opinion is that's where Neely got himself in trouble in one aspect.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5-min: using the Principle of Equivalence the black (preferred) count and the red (alternate) count are equivalent until they are not. There are two things which give the black count the odds at the moment: 1) diagonals and triple zigzags are supposedly the more rare forms, 2) the internal time taken for the third wave, iii, is 'longer' than for i in both cash and futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SoQqBl0n/
TJ
TJ - What's the rationale for excluding after hours and premarket prices on the SPY chart?
Delete..to look at where the largest institutions are making the pattern. It should still be clear from an hourly chart below, that the majority of the 'volume' come when the cash market or 'pit session' is open even to this day.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BPOP8jwY/
TJ
Reminder: FED Meeting report out at top of next hour to be followed by Chair Powell press conference.
ReplyDeleteOne of the CNBC panelists just gave a S&P500 target of 9000 in 8 years, basically expecting 8% return per year. Another guy things we're in the early stages of an expansion.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what he things about where we've been all this time since 2009.
Here is the SPY after the FED report. Nothing says up movement is over. Need to take out the wave x/iv low for the wedge to break.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Mkh4cBS6/
TJ
now down below x/iv .. on FED's code of conduct.
DeleteTJ
After three-waves down below the low, then three-waves-up to within 90% of the high. This could be a possible flat b wave.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Can't blame you if you hate this market, but SPY 1-min formed a proper expanding diagonal downward, could be a first wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Mkh4cBS6/
TJ
Can't blame you if you hate this market, but ES 1-min/SPY 1-min just formed an expanding diagonal lower, and qualifies for a first wave of five-down IFF the flat is in order.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NRuN5ysD/
TJ
..also downward overlapped the previous up wave.
DeleteTJ
If ever there were a reason to discount the theory of "Efficient Matkets", we are now witnessing one writ large indeed. There is nothing about current market price that even remotely acknowledges the looming financial catastrophy that is EVERGRANDE...but not for long I suspect.
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