Daily bias: lower - price remains under the 18-day SMA
As far as I can tell, preliminarily, today's lower low day after yesterday's inside day will set the daily swing line into a 'down' configuration. I will want to verify this later tonight, but I think so. Regardless, as an update of yesterday's chart - below - shows, the bearish cross of the 18-day SMA under the 50 SMA become a bit better defined today.
The day isn't over yet, but today's down wave hasn't taken out the prior low by just one tick on the ES futures, yet. That may change in the overnight hours. If it does, it makes a third wave down more highly likely. As the above chart clearly shows, we don't yet know whether the market will impulse lower or make a diagonal lower. It depends on the internal wave structure, particularly of a third wave - if it forms.
I did have a look at what degree of wave label might tentatively be assigned to the waves, so far, and it looks like the minute degree is the best fit at the moment - subject to further evaluation. The waves off the bottom in March 2020 started with minute labels so I'm thinking that may here apply here.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
TJ - I'm clearly misunderstanding something, I thought that an impulse structure was already ruled out since your wave circle 1 was already confirmed to be a three wave structure per this post:
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/09/upward-overlap-day.html
As a result of the above post, I thought that we can only have a contracting or expanding diagonal for wave 1/A and if that doesn't get proven, then this is just another corrective wave with new ATH coming. Am I missing something?
Thx
I "think" with a high degree of probability minute ((i)) is a three wave structure based on the tools I use. But if minute wave ((iii)) does not develop as as zigzag and instead impulses madly, then I will have to stand corrected, won't I? It all 'feels' so choppy, it 'seems' like a diagonal is the way down. But that's why there are alternates in Elliott wave.
DeleteTJ
Wave circle 1 is in the quantum state [ 3 and 5] it's in a box and the box gets opened at the completion of circle 3. Is that right? Then the the waves go into quantum state [ 123 and abc] etc etc
DeleteAnd thanks joe
Deletelol .. in a way. I would say that a way to understand The Principle of Equivalence like this (not the only way): the 'wave knows' what it is. Our rules for counting may not be sufficiently well-defined at a top to know which is part of a truncated wave, and which is part of the first wave down. And the waves at the top may be so 'compressed' that it is hard to tell if a wave started with a leading contracting diagonal, or if those waves are just part of a larger expanding diagonal lower.
DeleteOne could spend hours & hours in analysis to arrive at a determination, and it could still be incorrect, when all the market-makers computers do is figure out the simple algebraic linear program of "who gets hurts the most if the top is made here." Is it worth it?
TJ
NQ (dly) - 8/19 low was exceeded today.
ReplyDeleteI was trying to count an impulse down but upward over-lap invalidated that idea. I then considered a possible extending 3rd but looked like degree violation with that idea. The size of the recent candles are hinting at gathering downside momentum so imo suggesting a third of some kind but not at all sure how to count it...should be clearer soon.
ReplyDelete9/20 low exceeded.
ReplyDeleteES ..new daily low, and broke the minute ((i)) low. All we can do is measure now - currently at ((iii)) = 0.786 x ((i)) - and try our best to count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rhQ9rAiO/
TJ
..this is the hourly wave iv to diagonal wave v idea I suggested today. It's time for some rest now, and price could continue or make a bigger overlapping diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3MFPYl2h/
Remember, tomorrow is the first of the new month.
TJ
Morning TJ -
DeleteRegarding this hourly wave shown, since this is a 5 wave structure, am I correct in thinking that it's either wave 1 of 3 in an impulse OR it's wave A of 3 in a diagonal?
See image below for an illustration on a 4hr chart of ES. I think the issue is that I'm claiming the last down leg as either an impulse or a zig zag, but it can only be one. What objective tools can we use to confirm one or the other? The implication of what happens next are very different under the two counts.
I'm afraid we may be in another situation where we rely on the 'next' wave to to determine the current count which reduces the utility of wave counting.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/8w6paxj2afta9wi/two_options.JPG/file
Regarding the charts, don't rule out the expanding diagonal, if last night's move wave only (a) of ((iii)) of such a diagonal. Regarding the uncertainty, I have responded to that question to both you and Marc, above. No more on this topic for now - read what I wrote to you.
DeleteTJ
ya good point on the expanding diagonal. Thanks!
DeleteNeg HD noted earlier today has been exceeded.
ReplyDeleteCfd (6hr) Perspective -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/turl1k2mkdhzcyx/perspective.PNG/file
Hi G.W., what oscillator are you using ? I think they are not mentioned in the chart
DeleteI know it as real motion (its the distance between price and its mov avg [50ma in this case]). The zero line represents the mov avg.
DeleteThanks TJ,finally the shorts are getting paid.
ReplyDeleteCash has now exceeded its 9/20 low (SPY)
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. In the world of Elliott Wave uncertainties, one item can become reasonably certain. Given this morning's down move in the DOW futures, we can rule out the larger Dow diagonal in the futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mHrhUvdU/
This is because a new wave minute ((iv)) would become larger than the prior minute wave ((ii)) - which is against the 'rules'.
TJ
It's remarkable to think that DJI Print on Aug 16th of 35,600 may be the highest for another 10-15 years.
DeleteWorking assumption is that the SuperCycle IV is a Triangle that satisfies alternation with SuperCycle II, a sharp from the the Great Depression.
For new readers, if you want context, see TJ's post from a year ago here:
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
..don't lock in on that 'working assumption', and keep in mind there are over 13 different wave four structures.
DeleteTJ
Roger that!
DeleteI need to work ability to imagine these corrective structures. Come to think of it, a SuperCycle IV will chew and spit out most traders/investors and very few will 'win', probably give up on wave counting.
Once the Primary C in equities is done, maybe it'll be time to find a new asset class to go 'long'. Focus more on life, kids, and golf
Good stuff TJ
If one accepts the idea that we are witnessing a FED-blown bubble in equities, the denouement is not in doubt,as all bubbles end the same way. A C wave down at primary degree would be a sharp pin indeed,and a case in which economic reality and the wave count align perfectly!
DeleteNQ futures - 30 min - this index has just undercut it's overnight lows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
NQ (dly) update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/f8jvjorsp9p0jjd/NQupdate.PNG/file
[Interestingly (to me at least), the "exp. diag." on RM measures in both time/price.]
DeleteGold/DXY (mthly) update - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/so7hvsxvc4iohy7/golddxyM.PNG/file
Cfd has overlapped 28th low
ReplyDeleteToday was all about saving the weekly 20 moving average. And it failed at the close. First close below the 20ma since Oct last year.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ