When you look at the ES hourly chart, prices are currently boxed in, as shown. This type of price action could represent flat or combination waves in Elliott Wave terms. Nothing will be clear until the box is broken in one direction or the other. Within the box, the highest highs have not been exceeded yet.
The height of the box just exceeds a 38.2% retrace from the all-time-high. The hourly MACD is very, very neutral and stuck at the flat line, although rising a bit from the recent divergent low.
Looking at the overall down waves from the high, there is room for upward movement, but such does not have to occur.
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| ES Futures - 1 D - Neutral For Now |
The count very much depends on if the hourly box breaks significantly to the upside or to the downside.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
After another day or two it will be a descending wedge
ReplyDelete..what will be? do you have to be so non-descriptive in your comment?
DeleteTJ
The box can morph into a descending wedge
Delete..not likely .. as I showed in this post ..
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/09/possible-flat.html
We just had a half-hourly expanding diagonal (expanding wedge)downward from the high. To have another so soon would be 'poor alternation'.
TJ
SPY (hrly)- Strictly from a pattern perspective, one could make the case for an inverted H&S in progress. (fwiw)
ReplyDeleteYes, and one can also make the case for a double-flat, triple-flat or w,x,triangle y. And so it's all just speculation until the pattern becomes more clear.
DeleteTJ
YM (daily) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mspyzewks46rgrm/DJId.PNG/file
SPX (cfd) - 5min - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5tvmy5imdzklh7m/5m.PNG/file
FYI: SPY is trading ex-div today ($1.36)
ReplyDeleteUnless you use charts that adjust for the dividend, then it's basically impossible to do valid TA on SPY. That's why I use SPX for TA.
Good morning all. ES 1-Hr this portion of the chart has 'elements' of a triangle, but must still break the high or low to be definitive.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uEOfO2bX/
Notice the Flat EWO, and Flat EMA-34.
TJ
ES 1-Hr, now has a 1.618 wave down from the interior leg down, and has broken the first down (red) fractal back. Triangle got a lot less likely, and complex flat or impulse down has been put on the table.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr: just fyi- ES has touched 90% of the prior bottom from the prior high. A compound Flat would now be 'legal', but certainly not required.
DeleteTJ
ES 15-min: for the potential impulse lower watch something like this:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QZC6TwqU/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: second down (red) fractal back exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
SPX (cfd) 8hr - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mm4sxzcmdnzkqep/8hr.PNG/file
ES 1-Hr; third down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Support shelves again being challenged. VIX looking to print TWS pattern on hourly and if it does, we likely see a downside break rather than another bounce imo...
ReplyDeleteNo TWS...morphed into bull flag with upside target of 22 for VIX. It looks like decline may be corrective with new high ahead.
ReplyDeleteis it likely that all readers know what you mean by TWS?
DeleteTJ
Sorry about that. Most folk who post here are pretty savvy and I assumed they would. For those not familiar it is the Three White Soldiers candlestick pattern.
Deletethanks .. I missed it; must have still had my mind on lunch! lol.
DeleteTJ
ES 10-min: here's what The Eight Fold Path Method provides, so far, with about 130 candles.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z8IRAh2q/
TJ
..now it's a question of whether or not upward overlap occurs or if a channel holds (approximately) without overlap.
DeleteTJ
Note: ES did not make a new low at the SPX low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cgUqCCG5/
TJ
..watching for possible complex flat, or flat-x-zigzag.
DeleteTJ
SPY (5min) From a 30min Opening Range perspective -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9qn5yltohwobifk/5minOR.PNG/file