Yesterday, we turned from negative to neutral. In the overnight, price contacted the lower daily Bollinger Band with a slightly higher low. After a pop and then some backing-&-filling after the open, price staged an impulse which may result in the ((C)) wave of a flat, higher. The updated SPY 30-min chart is below.
 |
| SPY Cash - 30 Minutes - Potential Flat |
The alternate to the chart labels is that there is a truncation at wave ((B)) at the low. For further consideration of downward movement, price must exceed that ((B)) wave low, pure & simple. Can the current ((C)) wave up extend? It can - within limits - one of those being not going over the high or else it means the low was, in fact, a truncation.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Aside - URA/SPY (mthly) - Nice
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jf6upadny5c52m4/URASPY.PNG/file
Gold (2day) - the last three completed candles are dojis with very little difference in the closing prices. These follow a strong down candle. This [could] be a doji continuation pattern in progress. If so, should ultimately see another strong down candle.
ReplyDeleteChanged my story. Now think (at least for the S&P Midcap Index, which is a good proxy for the U S economy -- not many multinationals, no AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, FB) that we are in minor wave 5 of this bull market, we have just seen minute wave 4 down, and minute wave 5 has just started.
ReplyDeleteMinute 1 ran 17 days, 200 points. Minute 3 ran 10 days and 150 points. So we don't have much left for Minute 5 -- maybe 7 - 8 days and 100 points. It may not make an all-time high, although it should be close. The S&P 500 should definitely make an all-time high.
No H&S top in view at this time, since we haven't quite reached the top yet.
Chart at: https://schrts.co/pEthutWw
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/40fWKtHL/
After the morning news reports, it looks like a wave iv at the 38.2% (degree labels just for example at this point). And v = i would just eek out a new high. But a v = 0.618x net[i-to-iii] might not ruled out to make other Fibo targets. Let's see how it goes.
TraderJoe
...IFF for some reason it fails, then iii is the top, and the whole structure of the correction just counts as w-x-y; but IFF it does fail that would be a real negative for the count overall.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: very highly likely downward overlap on wave i, up. Fifth wave likely occurred within ticks of the high, and may be a bearish truncation.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here's a chart update (chart is behind about 10-min) and does not have the lowest lows yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6KyqECIi/
TJ
The only hurdle remaining for the market to get through and accelerate down is for it to take out Tuesday's low. As it stands now, today's low "could" be the right shoulder of an inverse H&S. Monday's low would be the left shoulder. This same formation exists in all of the stock indexes.
ReplyDelete..the local 'hurdles' are this morning's 9:30 am futures high, and this morning's low. Inverted Head & Shoulders are more probable at market bottoms. At or near market tops - while not impossible - they are much less probable and often result in bull-traps.
DeleteTJ
Aside - DJT (wkly) Current observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zxxd2vu9mp0jtb9/djtw.PNG/file
SPY 5-min; small up channel to watch.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W8BIUAtU/
TJ
Price right at support shelf in what appears to me to be a rounding top formation, so we either decisively break the shelf or bounce here to notch a lower high. Mr Market will decide...
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min; very short term - first breech of channel lower. 'Could be' a fourth wave still, but showing loss of momentum. Watch for downward overlap on 4,445.00
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QJnEPpCM/
TJ
ES/SPY 5-min; have the higher high, and are beyond 50%. SO, if a down wave follows, it can be 1.618 or more.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QJnEPpCM/
TJ
ES / SPY 5-min: 'also' possible to see the count this way in cash due to how funky the top was, and the lengths of the up waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RUewy2GM/
TJ
Tqqq is retracing an apparent leading diagonal down. If it manages to retrace more than 85% of the preceding down wave I think Ill start looking up beyond the highs again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AcQ93QZr/
Your proposed diagonal is not formed properly and breaks all the rules. Just another cartoon. Wave 'three' is 'never' the longest wave in a contracting diagonal. Period. Such charts will not be posted in the future as it just continues to encourage people to do the wrong thing.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ