As noted in the comment section of yesterday's post, the DOW futures (and cash) appear to have failed the contracting ending diagonal fifth wave by trading below the low of minute ((iv)).
This appears to be a negative development. The only way I can see around it is to make minute wave ((iv)) larger in time as a larger zigzag. That is certainly possible, but only within certain limits. Wave ((iv)) could not become longer in price than wave ((ii)).
Here is the progress on the SPY's expanding diagonal downward.
Wave ((5)), z, is now longer in time and price then wave ((3)), y. There could be more to wave ((5)) in the overnight and into Monday.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
So I guess the obvious question is how in the world does the futures count off the top?
ReplyDeleteI've been wondering the same thing. I think it may also be in an expanding diagonal but one wave behind the cash index. I've taken an initial stab at it, see hourly ES chart below. I need to focus on my day job but this obviously needs to be developed using objective tools and has a lot of proving out to do with wave 4 larger/longer than 2 and same for 5 vs. 3.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/z9prvks39by3kdz/Hourly_Chart.JPG/file
I think an expanding diagonal in futures like that sets up nicely for a less volatile retrace leading up to the Fed meeting on 22nd with potential fireworks afterwards in October. But that's getting way ahead of myself.
DeleteSeriously? For all my flappin' and jawin' over the last several days about people who just 'draw cartoons' because they 1) make no reference to the number of candles, 2) don't show the Elliott Wave Oscillator on their time frame, 3) don't show 'any' Fibonacci measurements, 4) don't look for alternation in an impulse, 5) don't show the moving average for form and balance, 6) don't even consider The Principle of Equivalence .. in short, come to this site and don't even 'try' to follow The Eight Fold Path Method, you have the temerity to post this chart? Your 'opinion' about expanding diagonals and dates is simply not 'wave counting'. Your expanding diagonal is not even correct because you are showing wave 2 as a Flat, and all wave 2's in diagonals 'must' by rule be zigzags. This is horrible work.
DeleteThis is what your chart 'should' look like at this point. But - like most people - you won't even 'try'.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/AdgHz5DR/
I'm really beginning to get sick of people not listening. How many times do I have to say it?
TJ
I knew my original post risked pissing you off...my intent was just to throw a food for thought chart out there with a caveat that it indeed is cartoon until the objective tools are applied. But ya I hear you, appreciate your rules and evidence based, disciplined approach. I will take a 'stab' at it on an actual chart one day between raising kids and conducting my day job. Until then I'll just read.
DeleteOn a separate note, I've always claimed that there is a ton of great content and examples scattered all over this blog. Much of it buried deep in the posts, exception is the 8 Fold Method. When you have time, can I suggest that you create a featured post on the 6 bullets you described with examples?
It can act as the 'checklist' of stuff we need to consider before even posting a chart with count.
Thx again
Google Blogger supports only one Featured Post. That's it. Why do people put the responsibility on me, instead of on themselves? Can you remember Eight Things or not? If you can't, can you write them down on like a Index Card? Or not? Or use Google Keep? or Not?
DeleteTJ
Thank you TJ, the Dow paints an interesting picture indeed.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to minute wave ((iv)) becoming a larger zigzag in time, we will find that out within the next 10 trading days and probably sooner than later.
DeleteFor me the 18 period ma is the proverbial line in the sand.
That's the idea Kevin, it is for me too.
DeleteTJ
Stocks above their 200ma - (wkly)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/pkei5akatgq8jj5/Above200.PNG/file
Very strange goings on with today's price action. What sppeared to be a H&S pattern was technically invalidated by the manic push higher in price at the open, nonetheless the downside measured target of 4770 was ultimately met and exceeded during the session.Are we beginning to see a failure of liquidity control of this market?They lost control of some key levels during Thursday's cash session and mounted a furious assault to sucessfully reclaim them in the over-night session. That succesd was short-lived. IF they are indeed loosing control, this market imo may not simply correct...the other "C" word could be in play. I think 4K is important...
ReplyDeleteRSP vs SPY - Two views - (note: I believe clicking on pic sharpens it in mediafire)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/yxs4ovvqwps6jbq/Combined.PNG/file
DJI (mthly) - observations - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/dktpsx0ipco18bq/DJIm.PNG/file
GLD/DXY (mthly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/1s7xzxgp6wyw8gt/glddxy.PNG/file
DJI (yrly) - Peaks -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/xwz7437h60iqnhf/djiY.PNG/file
With 125 candles, what is the A/O telling us with its highest peak this year?
DeleteThis issue was just addressed yesterday, with Hector. See this post yesterday.
DeleteHector PT September 10, 2021 at 6:02 AM
TJ
An article - just fyi - you may wish to note the last line, regarding retail investors.
ReplyDeleteMoney Flows Article
TJ
A [potential] H&S on 4hr shows a MM to test the Aug 20 low area.
ReplyDeleteNFLX (2day) - turning?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/53ntjqmj4vl6npp/2B.PNG/file
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7XSn9Dze/
ReplyDeleteTQQQ is testing it's breakout of the upper trendline on daily chart.
SPY 5-min: Just fyi - one might want to watch for an ending diagonal to signal perhaps the 'c' wave of wave ((5)) of the larger expanding diagonal on the SPY 30-min chart. A lower low on a divergent RSI might fit the bill.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qMPmcMu9/
TJ
Is the correction after an expanding diagonal more likely to be a sharp rather than a more complex correction?
DeleteFirst, such a diagonal must form properly. Second, if the diagonal is leading, then it may be either an 'a' wave or a '1' wave. It is really, really hard to know which. Then, the literature just says if it's a "1" wave, the correction tends to be 'deeper', not which form it takes. But, again, first, such a diagonal has to form properly.
DeleteTJ
PHK (wkly) Idea courtesy of Kimble Charting -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s2mwktjqy9dyjme/PHK.PNG/file
Per Ed Yardeni - S&P real earnings yield is back below 0 (yet another red flag).
ReplyDeletePersonal opinion, I do not trust anyone who speaks at CNBC.
DeleteCertainly not Ed "Y2K=Armageddon" Yardeni.
DeleteES 5-min; SPY 5-min; both have the new low qualifying for an E-D. It can still goes lower if it wants. This is just one way to view it on the SPY 15-min:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zVszMX65/
TJ
SPY 5-min: here is that RSI divergence and local trend line break upwards. Unfortunately, price is now below the 18-day SMA, so the daily bias is down, and the daily swing line is down. Slow stochastics are over-sold, but price is not yet near a lower daily Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P6DF6zdk/
TJ
And, I 'have' seen instances where after a diagonal successfully completed, as this one has - then, with only a minor retrace - a plain awful wave three kicks in - seemingly out of nowhere. So, good luck to all. Time for some footie.
ReplyDeleteTJ