Thursday, September 2, 2021

Waiting on the Dow? - 4

Today the ES futures made a new all-time high. Again, the Dow futures did not. Per the chart below, the completed count can still be waiting on the daily Dow.

Dow (YM) Futures - 1 Day - Potential Diagonal

The Elliott Wave Oscillator, the hesitant zigzags, the EMA-34 and the overlaps all point to a diagonal without guaranteeing it. A new high for minute ((v)), circle-v, is likely, but it is not required. 

On the shorter term ES 30-minute, with about 105 candles on it, and intraday SPY chart, we noted an expanding diagonal can be forming for the (5)th wave of ((5))th wave of the vth wave of the (c) wave of minute ((v)) as below.

ES Futures - 30 min - Expanding Diagonal ?

 

So, we'll see how the futures do on tomorrow's payroll employment report. We will note the up count can be completed today, though it would look better in time if it completed tomorrow. But, the up count can not currently be continued below 4,512. And we note the expanding diagonal's (4)th wave only held this level by a hair. What should be clear from these patterns is that it is exceptionally hard to count these waves legally as impulses. And just like I was the first to admit that I could not count this afternoon's waves down as anything other than a,b,c - with that same simplicity - I can not count the up waves as impulses (or a valid triangles for that matter). Therefore, I am now negative again on the market overall.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

23 comments:

  1. And, as we showed on Monday's chart, the potential diagonal may not exceed 4,579.25 in this configuration or it, too, would break the rules.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it is still true it would break the rules for 'this configuration' of diagonal.
      TJ

      Delete
  2. 5min - late look - observations

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/i1x06naryilqr6w/Latelook.PNG/file

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  3. Good morning all. ES 30-min now has that 'longer wave down', too, as was noted for the SPY yesterday.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/gt9TDyIW/

    TJ

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  4. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and current local fractals (with chart data delay of 10-15 min). Hopefully all can generate this screen by now.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/sqhVm8YS/

    After reaching the R1 daily pivot, price traded down through the daily pivot point, P, and down to the S1 daily pivot support. There were three candles closing below the lower band. This has a probability of about 3%. Then there was a close inside the band, which resets the number of consecutive closes.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ES 30-min: there is a new valid down (red) fractal at this morning's low.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/537B2jYP/

      TJ

      Delete
  5. ES 1-min: from the high, there is about a 75% chance that a valid five-wave diagonal was formed lower. The price structure is absolutely correct. It is the time signature that is off by just-a-tad, and that is the other 25%.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HoCQCWju/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ..so now what remains is to see if retrace waves respect the high or not.
      TJ

      Delete
  6. Weak island reversal candles. Hard to say how significant in absence of VIX break-out imo...

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  7. Basis 4hr (cfd), currently have a buying imbalance (with an hour to go to close the candle). Buyers are trying to hold this thing up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely! But if you take a close look at volume profile, massive distribution underway...not convinced it is to a retail cohort...

      Delete
    2. If you use TradingView, which volume profile indicator (name of creator) do you use?
      Thanks

      Delete
  8. just fyi - up wave has already taken more 'time' than initial down wave.
    TJ

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  9. Looks like we've retraced .618 of the move down this morning.

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    Replies
    1. Also counting a presumably corrective move higher. However, failure of a VIX gap higher a cautionary tale. The bankers are craven and corrupt, but they are not stupid. They will HAVE to hedge massively to avoid catastrophic losses when the market finally tops and reverses, meaning a loss of liquidity control. So far they have not...

      Delete
  10. "And, as we showed on Monday's chart, the potential diagonal may not exceed 4,579.25 in this configuration or it, too, would break the rules." TJ, you wrote that a week or so ago. Does it still hold true?

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  11. ES futures 5-min: no matter how you cut it, the futures are piercing this parallel lower and showing a breakdown in upside momentum at this time.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/hxu7Fyhz/

    A third wave, up, should have gotten 'up' over the upper the parallel. The opposite is happening right now, and gives more credence to a downward count.

    TJ

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  12. SPX/VIX (wkly) - the nuts and bolts -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/7ils5s1slgjm4yv/volatility.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. Beautiful chart! Few have noticed. I exited all long trades at 4500 and based un never-before-seen STACKED volatility falling wedges think the coming volatility explosion will be the most violent ever witnessed. Nice job! 😊

      Delete
  13. Thoughts on Palladium (mthly) [if interested] -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/o504b29vesanfo3/Palladium.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete