There is a very good chance that today we confirmed the prior expanding ending diagonal that I called in the ES hourly futures. As a reminder here is that diagonal.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Diagonal Defeated Lower in 'Less Time" |
The expanding diagonal shown in perfect form, above, is an extremely rare event. One really must ask the question why is there an perfectly formed expanding diagonal at the high in the perfect position to end a much larger daily contracting diagonal??!!
Intraday today I tried counting the waves after the cash open. The waves formed a channel with only three waves up, and a potential 'c' wave inside of 1.618 x an 'a' wave. Then, the channel broke down and this was brought to the attention of the readers of this blog in the comments section (here is a chart LINK).
I turned negative on stocks in the comments section again last week. I said I couldn't count upward impulsively. I couldn't do it again today. Can I make an argument that there could be one last impulse up at some point? Yes, I can. That would suggest that this long flat wave - shown above - a really clear rounding top - is only a larger "b" wave in a slightly larger diagonal. That is because the Dow has not yet made that all-time high. But, I'm not holding my breadth. The Dow can fail. It may have failed already.
I will now also remind you of my weekly count and the three main points of rationale for it.
Again, the logic for this count is as follows:
- If the (X) wave were a 2nd wave, then a line drawn from 0 - (2) would break wave (3).
- The depth of the (X) wave is only about 25%. That is too shallow for a second wave.
- At this point in time, wave (Y) is shorter than (W), i.e. Fibonacci Ratio (Y) = (W).
Besides this when you look at the two-daily chart all one sees is "chop". One does not see big impulsive structures except very incidentally in the wave.
Let's see how things go. Again, today, I further tried to count impulsively upward. The market, not me, said, "nah, I'll break down a bit on you instead."
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I said a week ago the Dow truncated....but you didnt publish it.
ReplyDeleteThere you go. While not for certain, it is plausible.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ. I appreciate your probabilistic spin on the analysis, it helps gauge the level of confidence in your primary/secondary counts. I suspect you're still calling for patience (although less than a week or two ago) for the top to be confirmed. Thereafter, I'm curious on your thoughts on the shape/form the C wave can take. If I recall and understand correctly, once the top is confirmed the next wave is a C of a larger degree wave A of even a larger degree wave 4.
ReplyDelete4hr (cfd) - late look -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/12468714vrnnchj/4hr7.PNG/file
Fascinating to see where they stepped in and bought futures. They clearly understand the psychplogy of numbers. Today is a critical day on a closing basis imo,and should greatly clarify the short term picture, at the very least. Either way, things should get very interesting!
ReplyDeleteThank you, TJ.
ReplyDeleteRegarding “weekly count and the three main points of rationale for it.”
I would really appreciate your opinion regarding the waves count at the beginning
of the current bull market in 2009. As you can see the similarity to today’s picture is just incredible.
And all your 3 points are there as well.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/mk8lyfqqbi7qywx/2009-10Vs2020-22.png/file
You have misidentified the location of orange-3, too far in the future, and not given orange-4 enough 'time'. Your orange-2 and orange-4 show 'no alternation'; they are the same zigzag. In other words, you have just drawn 'numbers or letters on a chart' (what I term a 'cartoon') and have not followed the procedures listed in The Eight Fold Path Method - which is the 'Featured post' in this blog.
DeleteTJ
..also, you will note that orange-5, which is properly placed, is 'beyond' the equality mark - in distinct contrast to this current count, upward, which is still inside of the equality mark.
DeleteTJ
And my main point was not the correct 1 and 3 places.
DeleteI know. you mean it must be much earlier at the previous peak.
My main point was all 3 of yours points are there.
If the (X) wave were a 2nd wave, then a line drawn from 0 - (2) would break wave (3).
The depth of the (X) wave is only about 25%. That is too shallow for a second wave.
At this point in time, wave (Y) is shorter than (W), i.e. Fibonacci Ratio (Y) = (W).
I had counted out the wave 'live & in real time' in a chat room at the time (chat room owner has since passed). So, I knew 'exactly' how it worked. But, like most - you want to be 'spoon fed' and won't try the method for yourself. You just won't exert yourself to learn something new - just like everyone else.
DeleteWith 148 2-day candles on the chart, (well-within the 120 - 160 candles recommended), wave x1 is the extended first wave, wave 2 is a simple sharp, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and is entirely above a line from 0 - 2, wave 4 is a long and time consuming Flat for alternation with wave 2, and wave 5 is shorter than wave 3.
Wave ((iii)) of 3, not shown is on the maximum of the EWO. Wave 3 is on the first divergence. Wave 3's EWO does not exceed the height of wave 1's which is most often the case when the first wave is the extended wave. (The example in the Featured Post shows the case when 'third' wave is the extended wave. Then, in that case, its EWO higher than wave 1. That is 'not' the case when the first wave is the extended wave.)
Waves 2 & 4 have the EWO come back and cross the zero line, as expected. But, FIRST, one HAS to get the number of candles correct to interpret the EWO. Then, one HAS to look for alternation. Otherwise, one's jaw is flapping in the wind, and cartoons result.
My current weekly count current considers "all-three" factors and not one factor in isolation. Try! C'mon. Try! I am not here to spoon feed people.
Link to chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NziRq3NU/
TJ
I enjoyed the chat room and I hate to here that.
DeleteSPY 15-min: in the 'most-conservative' count, there are two zigzags downward, the second of which is a 1.618 extension. So, pending overlaps, this 'could' turn into an expanding diagonal downward after the exhaustion gap upward written about in a previous post.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/anNOaYOs/
In the less conservative count, there is a truncation (*) at the high. Then, this would be a simple impulse down where overlap would not occur. So far, the expanding diagonal has 'the right look', and is slightly favored.
The alternative is that the whole double-zigzag down is the last 'b' wave in the upward contracting diagonal as mentioned to allow the Dow to make its final higher high - which is hasn't yet.
TJ
Hi joe, gold is topping like your grafic?
ReplyDelete'Try' The Eight Fold Path Method (the Featured Post in this blog) and see if it works on the recent down wave. Then, note whether the triangle has been exceeded lower. If it works, then you have an impulse lower. If the method doesn't work, then there is either more to go, or it is simply not an impulse. I am not here to spoon feed everyone. At least 'try' the chart. I do not care about your 'positions' or trades or whether you are long or short or not. Price is 'currently' below the 18-day SMA, and the slow stochastic is not embedded, so that 'by-now' it should be telling you 'something'.
DeleteTJ
In looking at the Dow futures, we see this morning that price is back down to the minute-((ii) to minute-((iv)) trend line, and under-thrown it a bit. Here is the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zAP9W4Un/
For what it's worth, Prechter notes that many times the 'b' wave of ((v)) under throws the trend line a bit which generates the bearishness to allow the over-throw of the upper trend line.
Thus, we must still be patient in counting the diagonal if we are to allow for 'the right look'. Yes, absolutely, a diagonal at this degree of trend can be expected to fail. It might have. The uncertainty is the market's way of saying 'pick your poison', or hedge your thinking until one or the other becomes clear.
Below wave minute ((iv)) we should expect that minute-((v)) has indeed invalidated, and the diagonal failed.
TJ
Yep! 😊
ReplyDeleteWith 40min to go to candle close, 4hr Spot Gold showing buying imbalance (this can change). Suggesting a possible halt to the down move if persists.
ReplyDeleteCandle closed (negative) with buy imbalance.
Delete4hr cfd - for candle just completed, virtual push between buying/selling. Suggests buyers may be trying to halt/turn the move down.
ReplyDeleteAside - 10yr yields - potentially key TL break -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vg79hdufkhwksyz/10yryields.PNG/file