Thursday, September 9, 2021

Someone's Out to Drive me Batty

Warning! The chart below does not resemble the ES futures. If you go over the comments for the prior post, you can see that today we again 'tried' to count five-up in the ES 5-minute futures. We could NOT do so. We could only count three-waves up today, and when they failed we turned around and tried to count five-waves down. The fifth of the five waves in the ES may be completing in the after-hours. 

In the SPY, here is the current 30-min wave labeling from the recent high. We had noted the possible exhaustion gap which is now filled. We will also note an open unfilled gap in wave ((3)), y. We will also note that wave ((4)), x came out pretty darn close to 78.6% and represents good proportions for a plausible diagonal pattern.


I did not ask for this pattern. It's what is being delivered. I would rather count an impulse. It's not there. So in the SPY, we need to see if a ((5))th wave that is longer in price (and, hopefully longer in time, too) gets made. For tonight, and until there is more information, that means that - using the Principle of Equivalence - the same exact down waves count as w,x,y,x,z - again until we know more. A 3-3-3-3-3 expanding diagonal must have as it's alternate the three zigzags of which it is composed - pure and simple.

I am getting tempted to discontinue all intraday counting until some people start practicing and trying with The Eight Fold Path Method. I'm not doing this for my health.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

22 comments:

  1. H&S on 15 minutes suggesting a swift move down to 4470. I think what follows that potential move will be telling as buyers lost an important battle today imo. I will be spending a few days carefully re-reading the eight-fold path treatise. I have to concede wave-counting in the current market environment has been quite a challenge for someone of my skill level. Thanks for the guidance T.J. Much appreciated...

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  2. ET, I enjoy reading your post, unfortunately I'm not a full time trader. If I was I'd practice, great time to advance skills in markets like this.

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  3. Stocks above their 50ma - decision time -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/rvbvlwolp5up52c/Decision.PNG/file

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  4. I have benn triying to use the EFPM from the bottom of march 2009, in order to analyse the current bull market. I have used monthly candles (150), and looking at the EWO (AO) I have determined that the highest point is this last candle (although could even increase in future months, obviously).

    Could this mean that we are currently in the 3rd of the 3rd or am I doing something wrong? Is it possible that the corrective movement from oct-18 to mar-20 is 2nd wave?

    Thank you in advance for your help.

    Hector

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    Replies
    1. You're not doing any wrong 'per se'. I'm not sure if you've read my previous article from way back in June 2020 called 'Trillions'. If not, here it is.

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html

      This also allowed 'five-waves' up in a parallel to the 2018 high, using about 115 monthly candles. So, I attribute the follow-on waves to the large Primary ((B)) wave we are in. This is 'primarily' because we all know it is built on 'printed money' and not true economic growth or manufacturing expansion.

      That said, I try not to do anything in a 'vacuum'. If you will perform the same study with the RSI you will see the divergence you are looking for as the ((B)) wave. The other element of the analysis is the current market sentiment. The exceptional bullish sentiment is shown by 1) novice traders with the 'to the moon' view, 2) Corporations buying back their own stock - some day they will wish they hadn't, and 3) the number of IPO's now being issued - sometimes of companies worth less than nothing.

      That said, 'my experience is' the EWO is most tuned to the 'daily time-frame'. That is because of the 21 day cycle in stocks versus the 34 EMA and how they whip around each other. Beyond weekly, a LOT of effects get rolled into a count, including inflation. And, it is sometimes difficult to segregate out inflation from an 'extended fifth wave', for example.

      And, to further your education, there are instances - on shorter time frames - when a large expanded flat wave does exceed the peak in Wave 3. It is less common (not rare), and you should practice with the shorter time frames until these observations begin to 'click'.

      Lastly, just a reminder the example shown is most applicable to the "Extended Third Wave" case. In the monthly example, it is hard to say the third wave is the 'extended' wave because it has many fewer candles in it than all the waves from 2009 - 2018 (nine years!).

      Hope this helps.
      TJ

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  5. H&S firmly negated with over-night re-capture of surrendered S/R levels...

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  6. Article courtesy of SentimenTrader -

    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/the-probability-of-a-new-bear-market-is-rising--9-9-2021/

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    Replies
    1. Sentiment vs. Fed liquidity and interest rates at zero.

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    2. Thanks for heads-up on URA...nice double on calls... 😀

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  7. SPY 30-min: fyi 0nly - this index just qualified for the fifth wave ((5)) of the expanding diagonal - or z of the triple zigzag - by making a wave downward longer in 'price' than wave ((3)), y.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/gacEDM61/

    It 'can' go further. There is nothing to say that this isn't just the first wave of the (C) wave lower of ((5)), or the middle of the third.

    TJ

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  8. SPY 5-min; ES and SPY have a new lower low.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKFgqpb6/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..now, upward overlap on wave x((1)).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/ywwZi9et/

      TJ

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  9. SPY (5min) additional perspectives -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/p2ozke2n47s2k6j/spy5min.PNG/file

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  10. SPY (5min) might this be a possible alternative?
    Thanks

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/20nhtr04rfg9y3t/alternate.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. You can guess, or you can use the objective tools. The very first step in TEFPM is to place 120 - 140 candles on the chart. That means you have to use a 1 min chart.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/QAov0d3C/

      When you do that, you see no fifth wave signature of the EWO below the line at the location you suggest. But there is such a signature at the location of my count. That also means on the 5-min chart, the fifth wave occurred on a divergence on that time scale, and the correction has resulted.

      TJ

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    2. Thanks. Just thought the pattern (widening in this case) was a bit unusual for an extended 1st wave 5 wave move. Had never seen one before. (fwiw).

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    3. Another consideration: look at 'how long' the triangle is in time. If it were a 'lower degree' b wave, it would consume more time than either of the down impulses of 'higher degree' in the same direction.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/nbjc6bd2/

      TJ

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  11. fyi - DOW cash - as far as I can tell, the DOW cash has now formally failed
    it 's diagonal.

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  12. ES 4-Hr, regardless of contract month there is a new swing low.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZNk4hRdn/

    TJ

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  13. 4hr - update to prior

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/pkwyu1t9pwphovj/4hrupdate.PNG/file

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  14. There is a new post started for the next day.

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