Waiting on the Dow? - 2

Overnight, the ES futures were up by about +15 points. This roughly corresponded with the daily R1 pivot point shown in the intraday wave-counting screen, below. By the open, the futures had lost all of that and then continued slightly lower. The pop in the ES futures, however, did little for the Dow futures, and they did not make a new all-time-high as yet.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Neutral to Positive

During the session, the futures got down to the lower intraday Bollinger Band and got into over-bought territory on the intraday slow stochastic. In doing so, they did overlap a prior 4,513 peak, and we noted that. Then, after the opening candle of the cash session, the algo's kicked in and back-and-forth it was for the remainder of the session.

Remember, we said today could see sloppiness due to end-of-the-month 'window dressing'. And it did. Yet, the 18-period SMA (red) did not yet get below the 100-period SMA (green), and price is currently above it so both the daily and the intraday bias are currently up.

Again, Wednesday, as the first of the month, often (not always) sees inflows from the usual sources like pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, dividend reinvestment plans and the like. So, it is possible or even likely that another new high might be made. 

If the overnight wave was the (B) wave of a flat, then this morning's over-lapping low wave might be the (C) wave of an expanded flat for wave ((4)). So, we must be patient and see if the Dow wants to make it's new high on the inflows.

As far as I can tell, from the perspective of a contracting diagonal in the S&P and the Dow the count is otherwise full. The higher high can certainly occur. But it might be one of the last in the set IF a diagonal is being made. By-the-way, the resulting daily candle is a relatively narrow range doji, so the usual candlestick pattern rules apply to it (meaning a significant confirming lower close candle is needed to activate the pattern).

Let's see how it goes. Have an excellent start to your evening.

TraderJoe