Overnight ES futures prices were lower. So low, in fact, they touched and went through the lower daily Bollinger Band - a real probability we had noted. The low was about +7 points away from the 50-day SMA in the futures. However, the down move was good enough to close the first gap, backwards on the ES daily futures themselves. Refer to the black circle on the daily chart of the futures, below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Band Hit and Gap Closed |
Then, as the cash open started to near, the so-called Smart Money began covering their short positions - something which often happens at the lower Bollinger Band, and price recoiled to very near the 18-day SMA, or the 'line in the sand'.
Yet, in the process - near the end of the day - the daily bias is still down, but neither is the daily slow stochastic oversold just yet. The only item not bearish on the chart is the swing-line indicator which has a higher high and a lower low. So, it is neutral.
There are still many gaps in the futures themselves which are still open in the downward direction. One of them is circled in red on the chart above. The exact count lower remains pending a few more waves. We have posted some ideas in yesterdays comment section, but none of them yet has been fully activated. So, we will be patient.
Is it possible to go over the top again early next week? It is. Is it possible to get a truncation fifth wave upward? It is. Is it possible to get a downward diagonal? It is. So, we must be calm, patient and very, very flexible as we count waves, examine wave lengths & amounts of time taken, and do the work of an Elliott analyst.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
I think we are making an ed. The last drop in mid july and this one have a fib ratio of 0.786. So today started the 5th leg of ed...
ReplyDeleteI am not sure. But IF we are making an expanding diagonal, then it most likely counts like this on the hourly ES chart:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7sFiRVcu/
The objective evidence I offer is the Elliott Wave Oscillator is at its lowest point on wave iii, and that is consistent. Wave iv should probably be 'longer in time' than wave ii.
Then wave v would have to be longer in price (and likely time) than wave iii.
As I have stated many times before, diagonals are lower probability patterns that must complete properly in every detail.
The benefit of this pattern is that it provides a clear and objective invalidation point. And fewer analysts talk about their invalidation points.
TJ
Since I didn't see it labeled, I have to ask of your SPY chart with the leading diagonal, is i ii iii interchangeable with a b c in the context of the larger expanding diagonal downwards to complete fourth wave pullback? I concur that price should trade at the very least a bit higher than they did today, reason being: aside from wave counting one way or the other that it was an exceptionally shallow fourth wave - it overlapped with first wave but it seems more characteristic of a fourth wave of diagonal to go further than it did in price. Price/time hasn't even hit ATH/wave 2 trendline.
ReplyDelete(I do see your post above that you just posted)
DeleteSPY is ok going downward - just waiting to see if/how an upward zigzag can be counted in SPY for iv.
DeleteTJ
Aside - TSLA (2day) - observations [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4koh55bxwt21h9j/TSLA.PNG/file
Courtesy of SentimenTrader -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vb3g34mgfmruecm/Correction.PNG/file
SPY 15-min : there is the potential third wave of a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YzMqIzWF/
Remember, these things have to form well. Let's see if it overlaps wave i, again.
TJ
..up wave has gotten too long in both SPY/SPY for a smaller leading diagonal. Could just be the futures count, with the two-tick truncation of the ((A)) wave, up, ((B)) down, and now ((C)), up, if the larger expanding diagonal, down, is to play out with this as wave iv.
DeleteTJ
..would look like this in SPY.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fuR0fSbr/
TJ
Moment of truth approaching. It would have to reverse right from here. With internals and momentum though- I think we go over the highs again.
DeleteClassic "C" wave characteristics! 😊
ReplyDelete5min - current -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/h11h4lm15o89c7a/5min.PNG/file
SPX/M2 (mthly) - update of previously posted -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/f3i7oylomw0fe97/spxm2.PNG/file
Latest from McClellan Financial Pub. - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/waning_number_of_ndx_stocks_in_the_uptrend/
I know the tendency is to look to ES and NQ, and ignore the Dow. I'm not sure if it will hold, or not - just saying that the Dow would have an excellent 78.6% retrace here: in the middle of the target range.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z4W0qoC5/
And recall that a lot of the initial measurements were developed on the Dow.
TJ
Salut joe
ReplyDeleteQuand est ce que tu trouvera le bon timing ?
From here forward..please comment only in English, or there will be no response. Use Google translate if needed. TJ
Delete5min - recap -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jmkjckh1tmqt8uw/5minrecap.PNG/file