Equity prices as measured by the ES E-Mini futures backed down from the high and the upper daily Bollinger Band today, and went straight down and through the 18-day SMA, "the line in the sand" as shown in the daily chart, below. (This was also near the S2 daily pivot level, which was called out at the time). In the process, another considerable downward overlap of the late July waves was created. Then, prices bounced.
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| ES Futures - 1 D - Down to 18-Day and Bounce |
At the time this occurred, the daily slow stochastic had traveled below the 80 level. By the end of the day, the price bias was still up, and the slow stochastic was still embedded.
Today, in the SPY we could only count three-waves-down. So, is it possible to go over the high again? Yes, it is. Is it possible to go down to the lower daily Bollinger Band? It is. However, if we go lower, with only three waves down, it would likely be by some form of diagonal.
Tomorrow is FED Meeting Minutes day. Because of the computer news-reading algorithms Ira recommends, (paraphrasing) "Sit on your hands until well after the release and you get a feel for what is going on."
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
SPY (10min) from last Friday - Not sure how 16th/17th fit in?
ReplyDeleteThanks
https://www.mediafire.com/view/gzgd1bh4yjrwoz6/spy10min.PNG/file
GW, Was BTC basing into Jul 20 another Weinstein Methodology example?
DeleteThank you.
I think when I was asking about expanded flat over the top earlier today, even I wasn't quite sure what I was asking looking back now. I think, since diagonals are the "less strict" part of Elliott wave in the sense that Elliott wasn't sure of its rules, that the expanded flat would be in the middle of this last fifth wave of the diagonal? "Generally" diagonal waves should be simple zig zag for it's sub waves, but there is wiggle room for this, no? Hope I'm not misleading. Time wise, the fifth wave of the diagonal can go out to mid September based on third wave time length. Here's a picture of the sub-divides I'm imagining, amateur picture, I know. Hope the "look" is right. Small time frame last couple days: expanded flat within a larger expanded flat? (a) and (b) of ((v)) moved further out in time?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/1nTwl6t
Unknown - BTC (wkly-dly) - Here's how I would view on both TFs
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kw560lj6aol3ucd/btcWD.PNG/file
Thx for response!!!
DeleteTo note on BTC -
Delete1. Stan would have looked for a material incr in volume with the breakout. The daily did show a spike as price was breaking out.
2. Stan's focus was Weekly! He would not have been looking on daily. If one were to view dailies, I would suggest it be in concert with the Weekly being in stage 4 only. Thus, the daily would be seen as an early attempt to see a potential stage 1 (wkly) in the making. BTC would not have fit this condition. I simply showed the daily as how one might use it IF the Wkly qualified as having been in stage 4. Hope you can see the difference! :o)
GW: I salute you!
Delete4hr - current -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7v4b8emk8p5wqf0/4hr.PNG/file
Spot Silver (yrly) interesting chart viewed online -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/51tntl37uek47n9/Silveryrly.PNG/file
Just to be clear, according to my calendar, tomorrow at 2 pm the Federal Reserve will release the July FOMC meeting minutes.
ReplyDeleteYes, thank you. I clarified it too back in the main post.
DeleteTJ
Good morning all. ES 30-min: here is the intraday screen with updated daily pivot points. Price is currently hugging the Daily Pivot.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PYwLCRXq/
The moving average and the MACD are pretty flat. Price has just broken the first down (red) fractal back. Other fractals are shown.
There is a possibility (not certainty) of a small head & shoulders. If that does not play out then 'maybe' still a triangle, but less likely. Watch the short term trend line from the top. IFF it busts upward then the correction can further extend upward.
TJ
Second down (red) fractal back has broken lower..triangle no longer a valid possibility.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min: here is the equivalent chart on the SPY cash index.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0E3e84yQ/
Included are Fibonacci retracement levels, also. Remember, the FED minutes are later this afternoon.
TJ
..tentative trend line from the top breaking higher. Correction can continue.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/51VRgMbX/
TJ
SPY 15-min: fractals have been updated. Be sure to note that both of the ((B)) waves are fractals. On the left, an up (green) fractal. On the right a down (red) fractal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c9Z5iEbh/
Also, just be sure to note the confluence of Daily Pivot Resistance level 1 (R1), and the 78.6% retracement. IFF the ((C)) wave, up, extends, then it might come into play.
TJ
Aside - XLRE (2 day) - something to monitor [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mc1jk41y7lfoj4j/xlre.PNG/file
SPY 15-min: market has another down (red) fractal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZZvEqs5Z/
TJ
SPY 15-min; first down (red) fractal back exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ - regarding the following chart -
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
Would/should there be any relationship between the "B" wave of Primary ((4)) and the current Primary ((B))?
Thanks!
No. The comparison is always to the prior wave in the same direction. The prior wave in the same direction was Intermediate (B) of Primary ((A)), down. This wave is longer in both price & time than it. Yes, it is interesting that the wave 'B' of Primary ((4)) was also an Intermediate (B) wave, but it was already bested lower by a (C) wave, lower. In other words, "it is two or more fractals distant".
DeleteTJ
Thanks! As a Primary ((B)) currently, should Primary ((C)) retrace to the area of (4) (2016 lows)?
DeleteWelcome. Not ready to discuss last item until it looks like we are out of this wave set.
DeleteTJ
Fair enough. Was just trying to clarify which degree 4th wave a Primary ABC zigzag could be expected to reach. Thanks.
DeletePrimary ABC zigzag? Where did 'that' come from?
DeleteTJ
Good point, my bad. Exp flat. Had zigzag on the brain for some reason. 🤷🏻♂️
DeleteES futures 30-min; they are playing this channel to the tick - just about. On the up side look for an extension of the ((C)) wave up. On the down side a fractal break lower might signal channel break and back-test imminent. For now, still neutral.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wclbQsW7/
TJ
Reminder: FED Meeting minutes at the top of the hour.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Show me the Yardeni!!!
ReplyDeleteLoL BBR:
DeleteI think the bond vigilantes have been captured by the central banksters.
I imagine the feckless FED will once again do what they always do. namely try to jawbone the market higher. Powell afterall has to protect those enormous gains he sits on in his stock portfolio, lol! Market internals are ugly, and becoming more so by the day. This sidewaus coil in a down-trend typically would presage a trend resumption, but a FED induced head-fake would hardly be any surprise.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: failure candle on SPY, so far. Also, breakdown of ES 30-min channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/C2Dn0KU9/
TJ
On my 4hr chart (not posted), using this morning's high, a measured move would imply a test of the 200ma.
ReplyDeleteES back down to 18-day SMA (4,420); slow stochastic unembedded at this point, but the day is not over.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 15-min; down to S1 daily pivot and bouncing.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZXqYxpfi/
TJ
SPY 15-min: fractals updated. Interior fractals that have been hit, no longer needed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q5OSruHL/
TJ
SPY breaks the new down fractal; ES too. Back to 18-day SMA.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pmthqXYe/
TJ
There goes the "line in the sand" on the daily ES.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; SPY; marginal lower low than yesterday. so far.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just fyi - SPY is down to S2 on the cash close.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/REwGN9xh/
TJ