Gold is down another $60 tonight. Meanwhile, ES and Dow futures are down too. Here is the daily chart. In one wave count, the upward wave count can be seen as completed. After the triangle we were counting out on Friday, there was a 90% wave upward. The wave did not go over the high. Why not?
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| ES Futures - Daily - Possible Truncation |
The ES half-hourly hourly futures chart is below, and would show the truncation after the triangle as follows.
I ask the question because the downside overlaps are getting rather tough to deal with from a wave counting perspective. Yet, there might be a way out of this when cash opens tomorrow and the algos get their way with prices. But, in the considerations of the moment, it is very hard to see how.
Be calm and patient, and see if a retrace wave goes over the high or not or prices start breaking down and make new lows.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
Hrly - have bounced off 50ma, perhaps heading up to test the broken support level.
ReplyDeleteHrly - a late look -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/iz19s0vtdvivjj6/hrlylate.PNG/file
RM remaining below its mov avg. Suggests price will move below its.
DeleteJoe
ReplyDeleteTruncation,
A very real possibility----4445 is Major Resistance Good Eye
Good morning all. Here is the ES 4-Hr status at the moment. A trend line break, back-test and failure would provide better confirmation of a move down. Right now, it's the sideways shuffle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LKp9XiOC/
TJ
GOLD - Daily - currently the daily chart looks like this. Last night's down move was both shorter 'and' quicker than the prior down move. The move did not break the lower prior low shown. This causes us to leave some flexible options on the table.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mUCUyqOI/
Best to use shorter time frames and technical indicators to try to get a handle on the count.
Note: that once again, Ira's guideline of not initiating new shorts below a daily Bollinger Band was useful. He cites that 'often', not always, one can get better prices. Such is the case on the rebound.
TJ
DXY (wkly) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rpjgesdybu1mosq/%2524%2524%2524.PNG/file
GC (dly) - RM, could this have helped? [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2gev52qkipbmr7n/GCd.PNG/file
ES 30-min: so IFF we go over the top again, this is one of the few legal ways I can see to do it. And yes, that would be an expanding diagonal at the end of the pattern.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y4zBs6v4/
The pattern has the usual proviso that the last wave can be quite aggressive sometimes.
TJ
Thanks!
DeleteThe sideways grind continues with no sign, imo,of a top so far. We have seen so many of these short-lived impulsive looking declines followed by a subsequent friend higher they have almost become a characteristic feature of the market. The VIX opening gaps higher that are immediately filled is also a new market feature I have rarely observed...dicey market. Expecting the grind will continue at least a bit longer. I don't think the turn off the top will be ambiguous...
ReplyDeleteActually, Neely says there is "often" a truncation at the end of a significant degree wave. So, he disagrees with you on 'ambiguous tops'. He's a world recognized money manager.
DeleteI definitely could be in error on that score T.J. I will happily concede the point if indeed I am. In the meantime, I will be looking for an "Oh Crap!!" wave down... 😊
DeleteMeant "grind" higher...
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ