Is this a test? The current characteristics of the up wave are 1) three waves up, 2) in a channel, 3) with a slight truncation in ((A)), 4) a slightly longer third wave ((C)) in time, and 5) a possible diagonal at the end of ((C)). The interpretation is below.
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| ES Futures - 30 Min - Three Waves Up |
Because the ((C)) wave is longer in time than the ((A)) wave, the two waves should be of the same degree - or else the latter wave is of one higher degree. Secondly, corrective waves often travel in a channel. For me, the eye-opener was the two-tick truncation in the ((A)) wave. It's almost as if the market is screaming "I'm only an ((A)) wave." A big question is this one: why didn't the market fully impulse? There was no particular economic news to stop a much larger rise on Friday. Yet, the market did not chose to fully impulse. Instead the market got to ((C)) = ((A)) about noon on Friday, and then just decided to sit there. Resistance? We should know a lot more Sunday into Monday.
Given the short-term up channel, trading below the mid-channel might be a warning, as it would likely result in overlap.
On a slightly different note, the daily number of new highs and new lows was beginning to switch around last week, as in the chart below.
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| NYSE Highs & Lows - Daily - Changing Places? |
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Sector Rotation Ratio (wkly) - looks like 3 waves up from '20, and perhaps an initial
ReplyDelete5 waves down currently?
https://www.mediafire.com/view/4wruwnl6d20h6k6/RotationRatio.PNG
Dow - Distribution? [if interested]-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/208b561epc3m9ad/Possible.PNG/file
Classic Wyckoff...!
DeleteSo far. CAT looks like it already had it's.
DeleteUpdate on ADLine -
ReplyDeletePrior post - https://www.mediafire.com/view/r0e5qcqbadiywk5/ADLineCommon.PNG/file
Update post - https://www.mediafire.com/view/w6cbd3c42r5mqjz/%2521ADLINENYC.PNG/file
Macy's - A Weinstein application [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hve4kw3ul1k6yi3/Macys.PNG/file
Thanks Joe for your analysis, once again.
ReplyDeleteI wanted to add that the next 25th of August is 34 years away from the 1987 top.
Coincidence or just curiosity. We will see.
SPXcfd - (4hr) - two concerns -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/glic3l3cdht4sav/4hr2.PNG/file
I wanted to learn your thoughts on China. Main indexes are in bear territory and tech stocks are down 50% from ATH.
ReplyDelete- Using TA, how low can China stocks go further, BABA is definitely not going to zero and these regulations are just facade to deleverage system and maybe take blame away when bubble would have pop.
- Mirroring China tech stocks, I won't be surprised if AMZN follow same percentage crash. My question is regarding acceleration for stock crash, as major indexes bottom around same time.
So, it is difficult to follow China's situation from the U.S., so it is not something I specialize in. And what you mean by "China stocks" and "how much further" is really an undefined question. Which China stocks? (i.e. which index are you following? Shanghai Composite, a China ETF, etc.), and "how much further" leaves out the necessary detail of "how much further over what period of time"?
DeleteTherefore, since the question is not well-asked, I will only offer this diagram: a monthly chart of the FXI (China ETF) for which there is some history.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T6Dtlw7O/
The chart is monthly. That is a very long time frame. The indicator at the bottom is red and declining. If it goes below the zero line, then any one of the three 'potential' support levels shown could be initial targets - not final end-points but targets.
I see no reason why there couldn't be an equal "measured move" from the 2007 high - 2008 low, subtracted from the 2021 high. That is just based on typical technical analysis. It doesn't mean it will occur, and often when people ask questions like this (how far??!!), it might mean the market is near a short term retracement.
So, since I can not follow this easily, I must limit my discussion to the one drawing. I hope you understand.
TJ
It is open ended question. I am looking at major indexes such as HSI and secondly large cap tech stocks, Alibaba, Tencent, JD and few more.
DeleteStarting mid-feb, major economies started credit tightening which can be reflected in growth stocks going down and yield curve. I am just thinking, for how long will this credit tightening go on 6, 12 months or more. Reason for that is if credit tightening ends in 6 months then US stock crash will have pretty same acceleration as Mar 2020 to meet same percentage decline as China large cap tech stocks.
Seems that this degree of diagonal has been negated, but larger degree diagonal is still possible and all the more likely... My amateur wave counting can still count three wave retrace from ATH. Was that wave 2? (Rhetorical question)
ReplyDeleteImpulse on SPY? Just went over the ATH (pic below does not reflect this)
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/NPyV8lV.png
SPX marginal new all-time high.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES marginal new all-time high.
DeleteTJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tmwpsMWZ/
ReplyDeleteQuintuple divergence so far on the TQQQ 2 minute chart. IMHO - There does not seem to be any limit to this market, any line that will not be crossed. There are too many people out there attempting to short this monster - and that is precisely why it continues marching upwards. Of course when the last believer in a collapse throws in the towel the market will know and then will drop - in days or weeks rather than months or years.
ES Daily - still valid until it's not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U99qWIlW/
TJ
I'm still wrestling with the entire rally off the March 2020 lows being corrective, versus impulse. While I favor this all being a fake move - thus corrective that will end badly - this more bearish setup never seems to come to fruition. Surely the higher stocks go the more likely we are in - have been in - an impulse wave? If so, we're likely facing a wave 4 A-B-C correction before we continue to blow-off. Maybe last weeks low are a B wave of that, or b wave of the A. Either way, we should be facing a 5 wave move down in a C wave of some-kind before rallying again. I'm not sure what the more bearish count would like to start the long awaited deeper slide, but it sure doesn't look like its started yet.
ReplyDeleteSee below @ 1:42 pm.
DeleteTJ
4hr update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/dsep8up4k7g2xq2/4hrup.PNG/file
Just fyi -
ReplyDeleteThe diagonal I called correctly in May 2015, took 149 daily candles to complete. See link below.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/erL6LLnK/
This one, so far, is at 119 candles. Comparable.
TJ
ES 1-hr: outside candle lower. Requires confirming hourly candle lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr .. confirmation candle, lower, before higher high.
DeleteTJ
Possible bearish harami on 4hr.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ