One of the reasons I was looking for upward count completion here is because of degree labeling. IF Minor A and Minor C of Intermediate (Y) were to be subwaves, then neither of them should have been longer than all of Intermediate (W), the prior larger degree wave in the same direction. See the ES weekly chart, below.
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| ES Futures - Weekly - Degree Labeling |
So far, it has worked out to the day. However, if wave Minor B of (Y) is a triangle instead of the truncated flat, then there is a week to spare! So, if one further higher high is made - fine! But it is not required. The form of the decline will be discussed once a few more waves occur to get some needed measurements.
For the moment, we need to see if the lower Bollinger Band will be hit or not. As of the cash close, the ES futures daily slow stochastic has lost its embedded status and price closed below the 18-day SMA so the daily bias has turned down.
Have an excellent start to the evening!
TraderJoe
Diagonal? Third wave trendline hit in ES if so, on 30min. Would be nice to complete the whole diagonal by week's end going into a new week. Thoughts on the diagonal? Past experiences would lead me to think of an opening bull rip to make the fourth wave midday, but it is absolutely bearish looking, great job on the count and forward looking TJ
ReplyDeletethx.. diagonal is possible; maybe even likely. IF so, it is an expanding diagonal as the next leg down is longer in price (but not in time). But, then, because of near equality it could just be a-b-c down of an even larger diagonal. I truly can't say without more waves. That's why I said I'll address it when more waves are made.
DeleteTJ
a-b-c down of a larger diagonal, now that's food for thought! Yes let's see what happens. I'll be on the lookout if this trendline gets backtested (pic of s&p cfd) https://imgur.com/V1YBC63
Delete4hr - as trading begins
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/xkdiukjt652mc90/4hreve.PNG/file
Would be fascinating to hear how degree considerations now inform expected downside targets. Really amazing, disciplined T.A., trolls not-withstanding! 😀
ReplyDeleteRegarding whether Minor B of (Y) is a flat or triangle, wouldn't/shouldn't the count of Minor C resolve that?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Unfortunately, there is a gap in even the futures chart Mon - Tue 8 Mar 2021 that makes that determination very, very difficult.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDelete..welcome.
DeleteGood morning all. Just some daily chart notes this morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zuxqKVR2/
TJ
ES 60-minutes: clearly the so-called Smart Money took some off the table at the lower daily Bollinger Band (where Ira recommends 'no "new" shorts'.) The down wave 'currently' has elements of both an impulse and a diagonal, including a 1.618 lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/knW4qQPz/
A key question will be whether the "Reference Low" will be overlapped or not. Again, over the 50% level would be a warning of the up swing progressing further (or a triangle fourth wave).
TJ
4hr - Neely, confirming a 5th -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kcu6a8quilj8s96/4hrconfirm.PNG/file
Cant read the chart 5th to upside or downside
DeleteES 1-hr : now getting some overlap with the reference low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Update on YM futures cluster at 35490-35491 (highest high at 35547)
ReplyDeleteThe 35490 comes from 3 times the Jan range added to the Jan high.
2.618 times the Jan range added to the Jan high = 34942.21. I would allow a nudge toward the 35000 area where a lot of turns have occurred and that would also mirror the 57 point throw-over above the 35490-35491 cluster.
ES 5-min: Not certain, but EWO seems to indicate a likely fourth wave in here. 'Might' be a sideways triangle, or a flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dppm2UwY/
TJ
Aside - GLD/SPX (wkly) update to a prior mthly post - early signs
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lv3ppd3bufnaffd/GLDSPXw.PNG/file
Thanks GW, I note a big drop in volume when the Sep 2018 lows were taken out - must not have been many stops to fill.
DeleteES 5-min: now in contact with lower channel boundary. EWO below zero.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..chart update below, now with 105 candles.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OFUmhN41/
TJ
ES 5-min; down into the territory of the possible flat. SPY & DJI don't look as clean. IF it breaks down and overlaps, then consider the fourth wave triangle option.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here's a chart update at about 120 candles.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BnPLPMMR/
TJ
Question: Could this be an A up (abc) with a B (flat) with a C to do. And the C overlaps the "reference low" again. If not, and you explain why not.
ReplyDeleteThank you
no, because there is no legal EW count of three up, as abc of A, in which the B wave does not retrace 90% downward of the three-wave A wave. Please see the 'rules' for flats and zigzags in the Elliott Wave Principle.
DeleteTJ
..what 'might' be possible in SPY are the first three waves of a leading diagonal, as per the link below. But, a higher high for iii is 'required' by the rules.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3p49mo1m/
Then, an overlapping fourth, then a vth is most likely higher in the case of a leading diagonal.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ