The daily chart, below, is the proposed contracting diagonal. It is now at 121 candles (not shown) with continued divergence on the Elliott Wave Oscillator (divergence shown as brown dashed line).
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| ES Futures - 1 D - Diagonal |
So, if we are in the minuet (c) wave of the minute ((v)) wave, or circle-v, of Minor C, up, then this wave up should be an impulse. So far, it is. And it may have completed today. Here is the hourly chart as was shown in the comments from the prior post.
As you can see we counted out a very sideways micro-degree fourth wave triangle, iv, that alternates well with the sharply retracing wave ii. Each wave touches the EMA-34 so there is good form and proportion to the wave, and it fits in a channel. There is also a smaller five-minute wave upward which could be all of wave v of (c). But, we don't know that the wave is done. The fifth wave, v, could extend to become more in length like the length of wave i that has that awful truncation in it, but it does not have to. As you can see, there is now divergence on the hourly RSI, as well.
Such an extension might give the diagonal a better throw-over look to it. If so, fine. If not, then under no circumstances could the extended wave five travel below today's overnight low of 4,476.25 for any reason as that would break the rules. And, as we showed on Monday's chart, the potential diagonal may not exceed 4,579.25 in this configuration or it, too, would break the rules.
Only Elliott Wave analysis provides this exacting and specific price limits and potential targets. We hope you have been enjoying it.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Always , the best, joe , j can online studi of you.
ReplyDeleteA non-limiting triangle for thrust of the throw-ovet. I like it.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteFascinating that this occurs as the central bank pooh-bahs gather to drink from the well at Jackson Hole.
Morgan Stanley/BOA - two charts of interest (2nd ties in with earlier Margin Debt post)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ur7e1bhu0w4eojh/Two.PNG/file
AMZN (2day) - Working on 5 down?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6dlsrww3mfhaxmt/amzn.PNG/file
AAPL (wkly) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/laqu4kvkd76uihj/AAPL.PNG/file
Good morning all. Here is the intraday ES 30-min wave counting screen, with updated daily pivots and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ImXV4dtL/
A very tentative channel is sketched in. Breaking the upper limit of the channel would indicate higher. Right now, there 'appears' to be a countable impulse lower and a 62% retrace - if it holds.
TJ
ES 30-min: outside range candle, lower. Wave counting stop placed at high of that candle inside tentative channel. New down (red) fractal added. Chart is behind about 10-min.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UCrCGqRH/
TJ
ES 30-min: first down (red) fractal back broken lower.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: second down (red) fractal back broken lower, now, too.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: third red down fractal back & fourth down fractal back exceeded lower. ES 4,476.25 exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; can NOT be making an extended fifth wave within the prior hourly up wave.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: here are the fractals that have been defeated lower. Chart range expanded also, showing S2 daily pivot, and changed to OHLC to be a little less confusing at the moment.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/B0QdJPUg/
TJ
..just fyi - news story
ReplyDeleteStocks Slammed After Kabul Blast, VIX Spikes
TJ
ES 30-min: price pierces S2 daily pivot level. This is also a 1,618 wave down.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: here is the downward count to this point. The principle of equivalence still applies, although the probability tilts marginally in favor of the i/ii/iii because of the 1.618 wave. Still, a valid fourth wave needs to be seen followed bu a fifth wave lower for that count. The wave counting stop has been moved lower towards overlap. And a new down channel has been configured.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Lyi98GFu/
TJ
..if the wave counting stop is hit, it would tend to indicate price is either going higher or making a diagonal to go lower.
DeleteTJ
Tj- if a was 5 wave could it still be a diagonal?
DeleteMaybe part of a larger diagonal down perhaps?
Thanks
yea .. somethin's going on. It's just a matter of figuring it out, logically and methodically. And, yes, downward diagonals are still on the table until they are not.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5-min: SPY offers little help at this time. The whole move down can be seen as one diagonal (left hand panel). Or the diagonal can just be seen as the ((C)) wave portion.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nm9ZDth1/
Another example of the Principle of Equivalance, and the need for patience.
TJ
..although degree labeling does favor the whole diagonal, otherwise in the right-hand-panel, the first subwave of ((C)) would be longer than all of ((A)). It's not definitive, but it certainly is an item to consider.
DeleteTJ
All of the decline until 4365 is (a) and now in (b) of A down IMHO
Delete4365?
DeleteSorry 4465
DeleteSPY 5-min; not sure - there could be a triangle ((B)) wave here, prior to a ((C)) wave, up. Watch the triangle invalidation level.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nzlLl0B3/
TJ
..triangle invalidated lower. Not a very bullish sign. It 'could' still be a flat ((B)) wave, or lower.
DeleteTJ
..the latter half is now an expanding diagonal 'for some reason'. It could end a flat. Or, it could be the five waves of ((A)) of the next leg of the diagonal lower. Flippin' choppy waves are very difficult.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kwhstdMo/
TJ
ES 30-min: new low of day (LOD) .. can be a third wave in a diagonal. More later.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..as a third wave in a contracting diagonal, this leg must remain above 4,451.50, and S3 Daily Pivot is at 4,458.50 - so far, so good.
DeleteTJ
So, IF it's going to be a contracting diagonal lower, then it looks and counts best in the futures, like this ...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ozY55VSg/
There is already upward overlap on (i), but another new low is needed for a 'leading' contracting diagonal.
TJ
..no decision by cash close.
DeleteTJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete