Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Waiting on the Dow? - 2

Overnight, the ES futures were up by about +15 points. This roughly corresponded with the daily R1 pivot point shown in the intraday wave-counting screen, below. By the open, the futures had lost all of that and then continued slightly lower. The pop in the ES futures, however, did little for the Dow futures, and they did not make a new all-time-high as yet.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Neutral to Positive

During the session, the futures got down to the lower intraday Bollinger Band and got into over-bought territory on the intraday slow stochastic. In doing so, they did overlap a prior 4,513 peak, and we noted that. Then, after the opening candle of the cash session, the algo's kicked in and back-and-forth it was for the remainder of the session.

Remember, we said today could see sloppiness due to end-of-the-month 'window dressing'. And it did. Yet, the 18-period SMA (red) did not yet get below the 100-period SMA (green), and price is currently above it so both the daily and the intraday bias are currently up.

Again, Wednesday, as the first of the month, often (not always) sees inflows from the usual sources like pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, dividend reinvestment plans and the like. So, it is possible or even likely that another new high might be made. 

If the overnight wave was the (B) wave of a flat, then this morning's over-lapping low wave might be the (C) wave of an expanded flat for wave ((4)). So, we must be patient and see if the Dow wants to make it's new high on the inflows.

As far as I can tell, from the perspective of a contracting diagonal in the S&P and the Dow the count is otherwise full. The higher high can certainly occur. But it might be one of the last in the set IF a diagonal is being made. By-the-way, the resulting daily candle is a relatively narrow range doji, so the usual candlestick pattern rules apply to it (meaning a significant confirming lower close candle is needed to activate the pattern).

Let's see how it goes. Have an excellent start to your evening.

TraderJoe

12 comments:

  1. COMMENT: We had perfect 5 down today at 4514 with a up around 4526. b down to 4515
    and now in c up. 3rd down should follow tonight.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nope .. comment failed to recognize 'first of the month' inflows - even when they were plainly discussed.

      TJ

      Delete
  2. DJT (mthly) - observations

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/tjm4fo1psjnaytf/DJT.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  3. From Greywaver:

    DJI (mthly) - observations

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/hrk170sm8dlnc96/djim.PNG/file

    GW

    ReplyDelete
  4. Good morning. Some pretty sloppy stuff for a potential inflow day. Options are a truncation or a triangle - for a later new high. Odds only about 40-40 with no good edge. Price has come down to a 62% retrace, and to the lower band, and to over-sold. Could go to 78%. But, there are lots of overlaps.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/r0Wl91Fo/

    The other 20% in the odds is for an expanding diagonal fifth wave, which is also possible since 10 AM yesterday. But, that pattern has an invalidation below 4,515.50 and is lower probability.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Update: price is still fairly weak and is now actually back to, or below, the daily intraday Pivot Point (P). If we make a lower low, and are in a triangle it can be a 78.6% leg. Chart shows delayed data.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/nrs19LXi/

      TJ

      Delete
  5. Looking like SPX 4600 in the cards...

    ReplyDelete
  6. ES 30-min: update - there is a new up (green) fractal now at the 4,535 level at 13:30 EDT.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/8fuaFNUw/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ES 30-min; broke the first down (red) fractal back.
      TJ

      Delete
  7. Aside - I ran a correlation of daily silver and gold prices from 9/1/20 - 8/31/21 -
    correlation factor -.0387 Fwiw
    "Trouble in the relationship" :o) Feel free to check me on this. Data source - Investing.com.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Idea courtesy of Kimble Charting - "Something isn’t quite right…" -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/gsn3qr9c14111v0/Trouble.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  9. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete