Odds a Little Better

Trying to see through all the whip & foam of the last three sessions is interesting and difficult. Whereas yesterday darn near made another high, today made a lower low. Now with 120 candles on the ES 8-hr chart, below, the odds have likely increased to 65-35 in favor of starting down in the minuet (c) wave of the minute wave ((iv)) of the Minor C wave, up.

ES Futures - e Hr - The Eight Fold Path Method

With today's lower low, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is red and declining for a second bar now. There is a reasonably good probability that it will come back down to cross the zero line. These are eight-hour candles so the counting really takes patience. But, that's what The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse requires. Who ever really heard of charting 8-hr candles? Yet, that is what the method requires. The very first step is that - if one is considering an impulse - one chooses the tine frame that provides 120 - 160 candles. One doesn't just select hourly, or daily, say, because one's charts are all set up that way. One follows the method so the Elliott Wave Oscillator provides its wave-counting ability.

If the odds are 65-35, what is the other 35% for? Well, it is always possible that the minuet (b) wave extends more towards a triple zigzag than the double-zigzag it is now. Yes, this is difficult stuff, but the lower low today seems to have made its statement, and we should recognize it until or unless prices goes over the prior high again.

Further, during the intraday session, and the comments in the prior post, we think it is possible to detect a 5-3-5-3-5 contracting diagonal, downward, which both appears completed with the right form, and which may be Leading. IFF it is truly a 5-3-5-3-5 contracting diagonal, then it may only be leading. But, it's a difficult count, so we'll allow some margin for error.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe