There are some times when counting waves, or when trading, when you just have to 'pick-your-poison' as there are times when the same Elliott Wave count can belong to more than one sequence. Here is the ES 8-hr chart, below. The first interpretation is the one in which Intermediate (Y) = (W) in time.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Interpretation of (Y) = (W) in Time |
If you recall from earlier explanations, this is the one in which the up wave from 25 Mar 2021 is a thrust from a barrier triangle, the triangle ending the Minor B wave. On this time frame, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has turned red, and is currently headed lower. Should the channel break and be back tested - but fail - then this interpretation gains favor.
The second interpretation is the one below.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Interpretation of Running Flat |
In this interpretation, there was only a "running flat" for the Minor B wave, and the wave up is currently impulsing. In this scenario, it is plausible for wave minute ((iv)) to make a new higher high in a minuet (b) wave of minute ((iv)). Right now, price is down to the EMA-34, and the EWO has not yet gone below zero.
As per yesterday's comments, while we were able to count a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal downward in the futures, we can not yet count an impulse in the SPY cash. The latter needs a lower low, yet. Perhaps that will occur tomorrow. Without it, going back over the high is plausible, as well.
When roughly equivalent scenarios like this exist, it helps me personally not to get too emotionally invested in either.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I like the first idea more. Also the faangs seem ready to break. Look at the completed impulse on nflx monthly chart. Big news from aapl today was purple phones. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteOne observation -
ReplyDeleteIn the first chart, ((d)) would be corrective
In the second, ((1)) would look to be impulsive
Seems therein lies the answer. Can't be both.
Indeed! For a number of reasons, I think the current move off the highs is also corrective...
Delete..thence you should be able to tell the difference. As a pretty experienced wave counter, I have counted it both ways. There is logic to a-b-c and to a 'five count' for that wave.
DeleteI would say you're likely a bit more than pretty experienced! As such, I would think this would concern you a great deal. As the whole approach is based upon 5 waves and 3 waves ... begs the question as to how many other waves can be seen both ways. It would appear that in this/these case(s), we must wait and find out after the fact. Hardly the preferred choice, but apparently the only one?
DeleteI think you have nailed precisely the source of frustration on the part of many traders with EWT, namely, the ambiguity. Most traders I suspect that whem capital is at stake, relying ONLY on an EW count, no matter how expertly rendered, is insufficient for success. Every good trader I know has a plethora of other metrics they use to inform and complement the wave count, therefore helping to identify the more likely probability when a,b,c cannot be distinguidhed from 1,2,3, which in EWT is ALWAYS the case. Just my twp..
Delete;)
This is he frustration that EW analysts have with traders. Traders have a plethora of metrics to trade with but somehow believe that EWT is a magic ball that can define the future. Nobody that practices or analyzes EWT has that view. EWT is a tool, like RSI, MACD, Fibonnaci levels, etc.
DeleteI seriously don't get it, especially on this page where time and again is been told that this is only for EW analysis and wave counting, NOT for trading. I know there are other sites - others I've tried that are far worse - that you pay for and do say they are for trading, but Now is by far the best I've ever seen and the only one in my opinion that follows all the rules and does do in a scientific manner
A look at GDX - GDXJ (daily) - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bSMq.png
What's up with moribund futures?!
ReplyDelete15min, early morning look -
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Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave=counting-screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation), and local fractals. The first down (red) fractal back has recently been broken.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mbpZNppe/
TJ
Looks to me like the B wave of a larger abc fourth now unfolding. These are some funky looking patterns, Yikes!
DeleteCourtesy of SentimenTrader -
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Moving up to the hrly -
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There was a time when sideways consolidation entered in a down-trend would generally issue in a down-ward break from the sideways movement. These days almost without exeception the exact opposite seems to be the case. These are broken and distorted markets, and I can't wait to see the ultimate come-uppance of the central bankers who are trying to convince the world that this is one bubble that will never burst. While this is exactly what I was expecting, it is still remarkable to see them do it every time. I think we have a final wave up if this is not B of four.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; within just this segment of the wave it looks like an extended first wave, due to the shallow pull-back for ((2)). Wave ((4)) might triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ujmc4
TJ
..the attempt is to try to fill the cash gap.
Delete..high is broken; cash gap is filled. 'Max' for the wave ((5)) 'should be' 4163 or less.
DeleteSPX cash 15-min; cash has a near-perfect 2.618 wave, which is very difficult to do (and has filled a gap).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XHyUEQzy/
TJ
Have reached the .618 retrace of move down from 16th
ReplyDeleteNew highs were signaled imho...
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
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