Nothing has changed with either the daily count or the four-hour count. Refer to prior posts for those counts. On the ES 30-minute chart, today we focused on this triangle which is likely completed, now, but not for certain (odds about 80%). The triangle currently has excellent form and proportion.
Triangles usually, most-often (not always) precede the last wave up in a wave series. This one can target 4,080 to 4,115. For the triangle to be validated, prices should get up over the micro-((B)) wave. To invalidate the triangle, one has to get below the micro-((C)) wave before establishing a new high.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES 30-min; the ES triangle has been validated higher and met the first target of 4,080.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uVhTCGp6/
TJ
Good call
DeleteI thought triangles ALWAYS preceded the last wave?
ReplyDeleteIn my humble opinion, the unprecedented level of central Bank intervention in financial markets is having a profound impact on not only price, but also price patterns. Every person who actually trades is keenly aware of this and made adjustments accordingly or did not survive the last few years...
DeleteSo, think of it this way - if the 'last wave' is a 'five-wave-set' to the top, then if the triangle is 4, then the last wave set is 5, a five-wave sequence to end the move. No issue. If the triangle is B, then the last wave set is C, a five-wave-set that ends the move. BUT, if the triangle is (X), then the next wave set is A of (Y), yes, a five-wave sequence, but it does not end the move. Then, there is a B, and then a C, another five-wave-set that ends the move.
DeleteThere are many, many unexplained issues within Elliott Wave. This is one of them.
Hope this helps,
TJ
nq this morning - 5 daily candles pushing on the BB. Also looks like an abc is finished there. Good luck all
ReplyDeleteThen there's this https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
DeleteTrue, but it may not be of any significance. The most amazing thing about this market is how clearly bearish technicals are ignored or reversed routinely. What we are witnessing in the market is absolutely unprecedented and you have to be very careful drawing conclusions based on T.A. only. Even the staunchest value investors now recognize no such thing as fundamental analysis applies to these market. Just look at sales to price, price to GDP, and the current P.E. ratio. Uncharted waters.
DeleteDelete
"this time it's different" is exactly what I expect to hear at this point. Regardless if it's a top, I think we correct for a while at least and my educated guess is it starts this week or next.
DeleteNot making that argument at all. We all know how this ends; just saying trying to predict when is risky...
DeleteMorning all..agree techncals are terminated .. working well ... liquidity GL all
Delete@tachy .. It would be hard to say Jeremy Grantham is not a value investor. Listen to what he says about, "once they're all in ..", and, "..last desperate surge".
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w
In my humble opinion, you keep making sweeping generalizations which are dubious at best.
TJ
I realize not everyone agrees with my viewpoint. It is true my statements are based entirely on my own market experience, concededly limited.
DeleteTach..need a catalyst....liquidity end soon..doubtful..I thought rates..perhaps a bit early.
Delete15min look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bLxM.png
Note that RSI was not divergent.
DeleteWe should clear 4100 today and I'm out until a Friday closing price. Ramp and Camp continues, plain and simple...
DeleteUpdate on 2hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bLDM.png
ES 15-min; just some observations at this point.
ReplyDelete1. There 'is' a way to count five-waves up as the thrust out of a triangle.
2. There is a channel break.
3. The current wave set is longer in price & time than prior ((D)), ((E)).
4. There is overlap on top of the triangle.
It certainly raises the question of this wave is a sub-wave.
https://invst.ly/ueo9h
Lower lows would provide increased level of confirmation.
TJ
What about the cash
Delete15min update - (RSI perspective)
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bLGw.png
XLU/VTI (kiss and cross at a low) - informational to go with prior 15min example at top
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bLKf.png
Now less than 4 points away...sure hope we at least tag it prior to session close. I am close enough and exiting here.
ReplyDelete15min - final look
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bLMA.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete